Here are some trades in ES this morning will comment later. But can you guess why the trades were all long trades? All winners. First was averaging down 4 contracts. Other three trades were straight long scalps. Gross at this point $800.00
Look at things this way. A 5 min bar chart is a more detailed look at the pressures building in a 15 min chart and even a 30 min chart. A fifteen min chart is a more detailed look at the pressures in a 30 min chart....etc. In other words dialing down to smaller TF’s afford us a look at what is taking place in larger TF’s. It is a sort of peek into the interior if the larger time frame. You catch my drift? The two charts below 15 min and 30 min have the 5 min PA highlighted (gray) where the previous 4 trades ($800.00 trades) took place but within the context of the 15 min bars and the 30 min bars. And of course the 15 is a detail of the same area on the 30 min. Does this make the picture a little clearer as to where the pressures are bullish or bearish? While typing all this up and annotating this charts I have since made 2 more long trades. Gross is now 1150.00. I have to stop for the day but will post a 5 min chart showing the trades made today and perhaps make some “magical” comments tonight. ONE THING I WANT TO SHOUT. The quicker a trader can dispense with the erroneous notion that markets are random the sooner he may start to make profits. It is the height of foolishness to think they are random. But I WON’T get into a sparring match here over this random BS so don’t bait me..LOL The foolishness has been dissected and looked at in other threads. I don’t buy into it and as far as I can tell I never will.
Hello Volpri, in response to your question, I think you have operated long today because today the price has touched the average of 200 days in daily chart, have I been right? I will try to understand your operations today, great diary, thank you very much for helping Volpri.
Actually that is not the reason I traded long on every trade today. I don’t have a 200 ma on the chart. The two MA’s are 50 SMA and 20 EMA on ALL the different TF charts. I will explain later tonight about going long today if I have the time. I do hope what I share helps and elucidates as opposed to obfuscating.
Volpri, Did you short ES or MES before 10am this morning? There was a very bearish move from 9am. I would expect you to have shorted the market on the a couple of bearish bars right after 9am or around 9:45am, when the bearish movement resumed.
No I slept in late as stayed ups into the wee hours of the morning watching a movie with sugar plum so I didn't arise for the open this morning. So I started trading late.
Suppose you shorted the market early this morning, at what point would you have changed your view of market from bearish to bullish? Or at what time would you have cut the loss on short positions? Thanks!
Because I trade off patterns and setups within those patterns on a 5 minute chart basically I am more interested in seeing the context for the 5 min chart. However, I will check the 15, 30, and sometimes the 60 minute charts to see where the 5 min context fits within these other contexts. Since price is ALWAYS in a channel on some time TF and always in a Trend on other time frames and always in a range on others I do like to check the context and see where price is at within the TF as they make their patterns. Because some patterns for me are bullish and others are bearish. An example: if a 15 min time frame is in a range and price is near the top of it I consider that bearish because 80% of BO attempts out of the top of a range fail and price goes back into the range. Price in the 5 min may be bullish. So what do I do? If I take the bullish signal I am probably just going to scalp a point or two. If Price in in the middle of the 15 min range and 5 min is bullish I'm gonna go for a bigger move (of course price dynamic as it unfolds influences to) once I make my entry on the 5 minute. If price is at the bottom of a range on a 15 minute chart that is bullish to me not bearish as some traders see it. So considering where price is at in the 15 min chart at the bottom of a range if I get a bullish signal on the 5 min chart I may go for an intraday swing if that channel is broad enough on the 15 min. An intraday swing I consider to be a two-legged move or more (usually with MM's).Does this make sense? This said the context that I like to trade off is the 5 min. That is where my decisions are generally made. I may glance at the other TF's but that is usually just a cursory glance to see in there is a channel, trend, BO and where price is located in those TF's and the patterns they have formed or are forming. I will take a peek once in awhile at the 1 min to perhaps fine tune an entry or exit but I don't like trading off a 1 minute because it doesn't give me enough time to do the live analysis and make a decision to trade or not. And the 15 minute or 30 min is like watching paint dry for the setups I like to take. The setups are the same regardless of TF. Five minutes suits me as it gives me time to make an analysis of PA and come to a decision on entries, SL, potential PT. Most of my setups with PA context I look for in the 5 minute. I get more trades per day that way if I wish to trade all day. Usually see 12 to 40 potential trades with a setup. Nevertheless money is there to be made on almost any decent size bar if one can manage their entries and exits correctly.