Thanks! Who knows I may do so one day. But I am getting a little old (65). And not in the best of health. After this week I may take a couple of weeks off from posting and rest. It really is taxing to trade and post at the same time but I am trying to show trades as I take them through out the session and make some comments. If I wait until the end of the day then I get accused of all the analysis being after the fact. Truth is it is after the fact even if it 5 minutes after but at least it is closer to the actual trade by making the posts as I take entries and then showing another post with another screen shot as I exit. Sometimes I am able to do that. Other times the entry and exit happens so fast on the same bar that I have to show them in one snapshot as it takes time to do the image grab and then post it to ET.
May I make a suggestion? If I were playing this as a long trade I would wait to see if the BO of the range is a successful one or just an attempt that will fail and price goes back into the range. See it did break out on the bar you entered on. But remember it is only an attempt at a BO, not a successful BO, until there is FT. After your entry it got one more smaller bull bar then two bear bars and a doji that just made it back into the range. In other words, the BO gap closed on those two bear bars. That is not good follow through. I don't know what happened after the last bar in your chart..the doji... but If it headed back up then that is where I would have entered long as it would have closed the gap on a BO PB and then reversed the PB. Remember 80% of BO attempts in ranges fail and price goes back into the range within 5 bars or so. So it is best to wait and see IF it is going to be a successful BO. I understand the FOMO (fear of missing out) but that 80% is high odds to play against. Best to wait and see IF it turns out to be a successful BO and if so there is generally one or two more legs up so plenty of time for profit. Now the way I would have played this trade is not go long but go short. Why? There is an established range (more than 20 bar) By your entry bar price had been hugging the top 1/4 of the range for several bars. In ranges I want to sell high and cover lower. I would be shorting and then adding to the short averaging down even more short as the BO attempt occurred on your entry bar. See, I would be betting the BO would fail within 5 bars and I could get out on a scalp as it filled the BO gap and headed back into the range. Now IF it didn't go back into the range but became a successful BO I would exit my averaged down position, take my loss, then double or triple up long betting that I could get my loss back and be in profit in short order on the next leg up.
That was a good short trade. It doesn't matter if it reaches your PT. If the market is giving you a profit and in a range or prolonged sideways move then take it on any decent move back to the middle or the bottom of the sideways move. Again it is a evolving range, not quite a range but close (sideways but not yet 20 bars). Your entry is on bar 16 of the sideways move. The sideways move at this point is a bear flag as the previous trend (larger context) was down. So it was a fine trade to short near the top of that flag (top 1/4) of the evolving range but no need to wait for big profit as price has been going sideways for 16 bars and in ranges (even though this isn't technically a range yet but it is close), and in ranges prices go ..up then down ...then up then down. So you shorted in top 1/4 and it went down towards the bottom. Grab any profit it gives you as it will likely head back up...which is typically range behavior. And if you look at the larger context..a bear trend ….the safer bet is shorting in the top 1/4 of sideways moves just like you did as the successful BO (with FT) for bear flags is usually south. I would scalp long and short...sell at top buy at bottom but the safer bet because of the larger context is shorting at top and covering on any move to the middle or bottom of the sideways movement. I usually exit fast on a move to the middle. Cut them profits short! It is a range behavior you know.
volpri, Thank you. Everything you wrote is 1000% correct, logical and practical and gives me better odds. It gives me better odds to wait for a successful BO. https://www.tradingview.com/x/pPFzdG9h/ Yesterday, I did well taking that PB entry (first blue dot) and exit for a profit But look what happened, I took the first BO attempt, and I paid for it with a big loss. Had a wait for follow through, I probably not get faked out. Price went back in the range. Good short play too, but I missed it.
Thanks volpri, You are right. I personally always trade ranges with the larger context in mind. Like for this example, the larger context of the day was bearish, so I am always seeking those bear flags or consolidating/sideways ranges to short the top of the range. I feel it gives me higher odds of a win shorting with , rather than buying the support of the range with bearish context. lol , I am still a bit hesitant buying a against a bearish trend. Good discussion.
I certainly appreciate your efforts sir. Taking some time off is definitely understandable and needed. Take care and enjoy your vacation.
Thanks. I will probably post some stuff from today’s trades. I took 13 trades in MES lost on 2 both small losses and make some on 11. I also took a few trades in mini naz and made some $ there too. I may post some stuff Tomm if I trade, then after that gonna take a few weeks off posting much in my journal.
Volpri, really grateful for your generosity in sharing this knowledge. It has helped me enormously. Please come back after your break .
Glad it is helping and not hurting. Yes, I plan on coming back. I’m just really tired. Working on house..planting garden and all that is involved in that, and of course trading and posting.
Disclaimer: The below is for educational purposes only and for you to practice on a SIM if you like the ideas. If you use real money trading any concepts, including these in this post, and any other posts of mine anywhere on this forum or in any other forum, you just might lose your hat, bank account, car, and wife or husband, if you are a lady trading. So be warned beforehand that trading is hard and real risky. And any trades simulated, or otherwise, in this journal, or any post of mine, anywhere, does not mean that is the way it will always happen in the world of trading the financial markets. You need to know trading the markets is uncertain. We can never be 100% sure of anything in trading except that we can, and will, at times, lose money. That you can count on! I tried to put the number of the trade above the bar where the trade was initiated. Since these were all short trades they will all have red triangle entries. The green triangle entries are the exits, or when I cover the trade. Sometimes, the green exits are hard to see on bear bars but if you blow the chart up or put some good spectacles on you will see them. They are there. #1 Entry short bar 10:50 1 3075 based on NQ leading ES south. exit 3072 bar 10:55 +3pts #2 Entry short bar 10:55 @3074 short SL 3082 PT 3068 TE 60%x6 =360 40x8 =320 Exit by mistake 3071 forgot to make PT 6 points exit bar 11:00 (+3 pts) #3 short bar 11:05 3068 SL 3080 PT 3062 TE 80x6=480 20X12=240 exit 3062 bar 11:15 (+6pts) #4 averaged down trade. ini Entry short 3049 bar 12:05 and up want to ave added 1 Ave price 3051.00 and added 1 bar 12:20 3054 Total contracts 3 new SL 3061 new PT 3044 TE 65x7.25=471 35x9.8= 343 give up point 3065 Exited 1 bar 12:25 @ 3048 and 2 bar 12:30 @3044 total points (+18 points) #5 Entry late bar 13:00 3039 ini SL 3049 ini PT 3033 straight short scalp TE 70x6=420 30%x10=300 420>300 Exit same bar 3033 (+6pts) #6 Entry short bar 13:05 3040 SL 3049 ini PT 3034 TE 70%x6=420 30%x 9=270 Exit same bar 3034 (+6pts) #7 Entry 2 contracts bar 13:10 @3037 ini SL3042 ini PT 3031 TE 80%x6=480 20%x5=100 exited both bar 13:10 at 3031 (+6 pts) #8 Short 2 bar 13:25 @3036 iniSL 3045 ini PT 3030 TE 70%x6=420 30%x9=270 EXIT bar 13:30 @3030 +$331.25 at this point. (+6 pts) #9 Averaged down short Entry 1 3020 bar 14:00 added 1 short bar 14:05 at 3022.25 av 3021 Exit 1@ 3016.25 bar 14:05 exit next one bar 14:10 @3014.00 (3.75 pts on first entry & 8.25 pts on second entry) total (+12pts) #10 short 1 contract bar 14:25 @3004 ini SL3014 ini PT 2998 Exit bar 14:30 2998 TE 70%x6 = 420 30%x10 =300 (+6 pts) #11 short 2 contracts bar 14:30 @ 3006 ini SL 3014 ini PT 3003 TE 80x6=480 20%x8=160 Exit 2@3000 on bar 14:35 (+6 pts) #12 Averaged down short 1 bar 13:40 @3010 bar exited 1 same bar @3016 los s(behind middle red triangle then short 1 @3016 added another at 3020 ave for 2 now 3018 PT exited 2 bar 14:45 at 3010.75 exited the one loss by mistake failed to adjust SL lost 6 pts on first entry then + 5.25 pts on second entry and +9.25 pts on last entry. So netted+ $523.75 at this point. (net +8.5 pts) #13 short 1 bar 15:05 @3010 iniSL 3020 ini PT 3002 TE 70x8=560 30%x10=300 had to exit market cause time ran out. small loss 1 point loss (-1pt) Trades 4,9, and 12 were averaged down trades. The rest were straight scalps. I had 13 trades in total. 12 winners. However I lost 6 points on 1 contract in trade #12 and trade 13 lost 1 point. You can add the total points gained for the day and substract the 7 points lost on those 2 contracts. Bottom line: SPBR trend. All trades were short trades. These SPBT (small pullback trend days) are some of the strongest trend that there are even though at times they can be grindingly slow. PB's in these sort of trends are usually good to average down on, for me at least, the guru's say no no NO!. This is the way I like to trade SPBT (small pullback trends). Jump in on PB's get a profit then jump out. Then on the next trade try to jump in at a better position than the previous trade's exit (in this case higher up since it is a bear trend) then exit with profit. Thus sort of compounding. You can see that effect in trade #1 and #2, #5, #6, #7, #8, #10, and #11 I also traded in mini Naz and made 170.50 So total Gross $516.25 on MES plus 170.50 on naz = $686.75. This is trading small size (never once over 3 contracts in MES in any one trade) and having a high win rate. High win rate is a very important metric for a scalper of 1 to 8 points in MES. I am trading small to show how a small trader with a small account can do fairly well. This could of as well been the ES and of course the profits would have been alot more. Or it could have been MES but trading 20 or 30 contracts a lick and been alot more moneywise. The point is the process is the same. For MES or ES. NQ or MNQ. Small size or large size. Nothing changes about the process itself. The size and instrument a trader can trade is based upon the account size. A trader does not have to capture big moves and trends to make money. See these small moves 1 to 6 points over and over, locking in profits, are easier to assign probability to in the TE. By the way, if I don't show every trade with TE it is because I just didn't get around to it. Once you get good at the TE many times you can just figure it on the fly by the seat of your pants instead of with a calculator plugging in the numbers. And in fast moving markets that may be the only option. The point is I like to do it to assign probability. Whatever TF a trader trades in my opinion they need to use the TE. A trader just needs to get REALLY good a scalping for 1 to 8 points. It is easier to extrapolate out 1 to 8 points that to try and extrapolate out 50 point or 100 points. I am being nice here to keep the guru's from choking on their spittle. The word really is PREDICT. ROFL I may take a few trades tomm Friday then I'm going to take a few weeks off posting in my journal. With all the other things I do, plus trading, and journaling, well...I get tired. But this is enough to chew on for a few weeks. If you have a mind to you can practice on a SIM. Remember CONTEXT CONTEXT CONTEXT. That is way more important than any single setup. It is like LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION is to Real Estate. If you find a few mistakes in my write up on today's trades just overlook them. I am 65 you know. And not the sharpest knife in the drawer. But I think things are close enough in accuracy for you to see how I like to trade SPBR (small pullback bear trend) days. I just like locking in profits, compounding (cause in essence I am using profits from previous trade to make more money in a subsequent trade..I suppose..at least that is how I look at it). It is easier to extrapolate inertia 1 to 8 points on the same bar or next few bars than to extrapolate out lots of points, hours away, in bigger trends. I just chop up bigger trends into smaller bites and lock in those profits. Commissions don't bother me. Missing out on profits does. Happy trading tommorrow and remember "we create our own reality in the markets" Chart is MES 5 min for 6-11-2020