Ok good thanks for your opinions, both Trading_jean and Simplemelike. Glad to seeing you are thinking it through and chiming in. Your right TRading_jean my first 2 trades were long scalps at the bottom of a bull channel. That immediately puts odds in my favor to be going long in the bottom 1/3 of the channel since it is a bull channel. Does that help you understand simplemelike trades one and two and why I took them? If a trader is more aggressive he can actually start going long any where in the bottom 1/2 especially if he knows how to read the buying/selling pressures of the last few bars within the channel. My first trade in post #565 was an averaged down long and I exited with a profit. My second trade was a straight long scalp, also profitable and also near the bottom of the bull channel. Both were in line with the trading principles I adhere to (I do have my rebellious days though ROFLMAO) So...…. 1) Long in the bottom of channels (can even go long near the bottom of bear channels but make quick scalps, and preferably entries as close to the bottom of the channels as possible and not just the bottom 1/3 or 1/2 of the channel). I think that is obvious why I say this because the odds are not as great going long in at bottom of bear channels, as opposed to going long in bottom 1/2 of bull channels. The fact that there is a channel has something to say about the underlying pressures. So don't follow and long scalps too far that are made at the bottom of bear channels. Grab that profit. 2) Both trades grabbed profits quickly. That was money in the bank. I can always enter again. Alright what about that third trade? By 9:30 a.m. that top and bottom channel line could be drawn it and extrapolated way out to the edge of the chart and as time past just keep extending it out. Look again at the chart in post #565. At the 10:55 a.m. bar price was now up in the upper half of that extended channel. Actually nearly in the 1/3 top of the channel. Being a bit aggressive I started shorting on that bar. That follows my plan of shorting in the top 1/2 to 1/3 of bull channels. The more a trader waits for it to get closer to the top of the channel before entering short, the better the odds of a successful trade. But I was aggressive and just started shorting. By bar 11:35 I finished averaging down my last short entry to my position and price was trading at the top of the extrapolated channel. Now it is a matter of waiting for price to track back down into the channel to below my first entry for exiting. Hopefully, it will make it there. If not, I'll grab whatever profit it gives me and move on to the next trade. After my last entry I had to wait for 45 minutes (9 bars) to see price go in my favor. And once it did, and I saw it did so on a decent bear bar with 2 more FT bars, I decided to just hold. not exit yet, and try to squeeze a little more out. It traded out the bottom of the channel and once I saw it reached below my first entry I exited. It was a long scalp time wise as I had to wait for 17 five min bars later from my last entry, to see my profitable exit realized. I generally don't like waiting this long. There is a reason why I had to wait so long and I will explain: See, this was not only a bull channel but is was also a SPBL (small pullback bull trend day). That trend began 10 min after the open of RTH's and traded above the 20 EMA all they way till that 12:30 bar when it broke south of the 20 EMA and out the bottom of the channel. The fact that is was a gap up open and by 9:10 the bears were not successful in closing the GAP well that was the first alert it may be a SPBL trend day. When trading a SPBL trend day the tactic is to go long on PB towards the EMA, even averaging down, and exiting on pushes back up. You can even scalp short the PB if they are big enough but can't follow them too far. The better tactic is to long and average in long on the PB's and exit on pushes back up that gives you a profit. However, if you also scalp short the PB's in a SPBL trend the PB's need to be big enough for a minimum scalp of 1 point (that means the PB's have to be at least 3 points in size a AND 3 times as big as the average bar (just a visual glance generally will do.) So, the reason my third trade took so long to see it realized is we were in a small SPBL trend day as well as in a bull channel that was sort of narrow. I just decided to trade the channel so I used channel trading techniques. It could have just as well be traded as a SPBL trend day. See, that is the beauty of trading price action. You often get multiple ways to trade right in front of you. One more word and I think I have mentioned it before in earlier posts. You don't have to exit positions on a push up on SPBL trend trades that you have taken long on PB's. You can just hold them and keep adding to the position all day long on successive PB's until you see weakness come in (like a reversal..etc) or if it keeps going up hold and exit near the close of the session. I just prefer scalping SPBL trends over and over cause it correlates with my idea of "grab them profits" when you can. Trading_jean you wanted to know where my SL on that third trade was at. The min SL is a tick or two below the low of that 10:40 doji bar. My max SL that would tell me to get out as my premise is wrong, is below the low of the 9:10 bar, taking into account that price could trade way below the channel for a bit then go back up into the channel or even run through the top of the channel. Hope that answers your questions.
Thanks for the elaborate answer Volpri, I appreciate it. It's bedtime here now, but tomorrow I will post some more thoughts and possibly questions. One quick question already now though: how can the stops of your third trade be below the 10:40 and the 9:10 bars if it was a short? I feel like an idiot for being completely confused now, I must misunderstand your reply but I really don't get it.
ROFLMAO. THAT IS HILARIOUS. ABSOLUTELY my mistake. I typed it wrong. I had a rough day today. Could not get my brain to think right. Could not judge the market right today. Trying to type my explanation to you and simplemelikes and trade and making mistakes. One after the other. I know better and should quit on days like this but I kept on and finally pulled out of the hole I dug for myself. I am a diabetic and when my sugar acts up my brain just does not work. The SL is always above the top channel like point or two for the first level SL. Depending on the dynamics as price moves up towards the SL I may widen that to 5 or 6 points. The reason for this is often we will see a BO out of the channel top and it fails and price goes right back into the channel. I don’t want to get stopped out on something like that. If the BO is successful (with FT) then I exit double up and go the other way. There I hope that corrects it for you! My bad. Sorry. But I am glad you are actually reading the posts!
Made mistakes today trading. Dug a hole and had to climb out. Made it out and minutes before the close ended with a profit. I think I am going to just show these trades as they happened. I took snapshots as I took them and the day progressed. Here is the first trade. RTH's 5 min chart 4-30-2020 Trade 1 Profitable. First trade all OK and within how I trade. More that 20 bars sideways movement since the open so can be classified as a range and use range trading tactics. So, I took a long position. Added to it on the next bar (i.e. averaged down) and then exited the entire position at the red triangle. Stop loss in this case is first place a point or two outside the bottom of the range up to 6 points or a successful BO south whichever comes first. So far so good.
Here are the second trade and third trades for 4-30-2020 Trade 2 a loser. Trade 3 profitable Second trade: Look at that 10:45 big bear bar that broke out of the bottom of the range. I started going just above the bottom of the range. So far so good and according to how I trade ranges. Initial position was 1 contract. Then I average added (averaged down 2 more times on the same bar). By the close of the bar I have 3 contracts. It keeps moving against me. Two bars I add another contract (look hard you will see the four green entry triangles).So now I am long 4 contracts. It keeps moving against me. I finally bite the bullet and exit the entire 4 lots on that first red triangle with a loss. Third trade: Right after my exit I then decide to go with the market on my third trade and get back my loss. So, I double up 8 contracts short at that second red triangle down from the first one on the same bar. I then exit the 8 lot short on the same bar at that lower green triangle making back my loss and back in the money. I corrected my mistake I made on that second trade and ended up OK. So far so good. I made a mistake in that second trade. WHAT SHOULD I HAD DONE DIFFERENTLY TO TRADE THE WAY I TRADE RANGES? See if you can tell me. Hint successful BO's.
4-30-2020 Fourth trade: Profitable Short entry on that 11:05 bar. Averaged down on the previous short entry on the 11:10 bar. Then exited the entire position two bars later at the 11:20 bar once price traded thru my first entry. So far so good. This is a technique that I don't think I have discussed yet in this journal so you might want to take special note. When there is a successful BO out the bottom of the range on the first PB back up to the BO point (that is the bottom of the range) you can fade the PB. That is trade against it. Chances are good that within a bar or two price will head back down. When the BO is at the top of a range fade the initial PB after the successful BO. That is go long. Because it is already a successful BO the odds are high you will be in the money within a bar or two once the trend resumes. I exited within my guidelines on trade 4 once it traded through my original entry. Just grab them profits!
Trade 5 on 4-30-2020 Profitable. I abandon the trading range box. It is no longer useful. I now draw in bear channel lines. My fifth trade is I short on bar 11:25 in the top 1/3 of the channel an average down after my initial entry with a second short entry. SL is going to be up to 6 points above the range but likely will start with 2 or 3 points first. If there is a successful BO of the top of the range after I take my short position I will exit double up, take my loss, double up, and go north. However, that was not needed. After my second averaged down entry on the very next bar 11:30 bar I exited at the green triangle, both contracts, once price traded thru my initial entry. Grab them profits! So far, so good. The last two red triangle pertain to the next trade. That will be next.
Trade 6 on 4-30-2020 Loss. I started shorting on bar 11:35 and averaging down by bar 11:40 I had a 4 lot position. I finally exited it on bar 11:55 on that first green triangle (there are three there on that bar as I reversed and went long too at that point. Here I made that same mistake I made on trade two but just on a successful BO out of the top of a range. What was that mistake? Notice if you would have faded on that PB (not technically a PB but a drop in price on the same bar) after the BO on either the doji bar or the bull bar that follows the doji you would soon be in the money on the next bar or even the same bar. This is the technique of fading the PB (or drop in price on a successful BO of the top of the range). No need for me fading it as I am short 4 contracts and holding. I end up biting the bullet. Again what was my mistake?
Trade 7 on 4-30-2020 LOSS After my losing exit on trade 6 and then on the same bar my immediate reversal to long on bar 11:55. I then averaged down long twice more on bar 12:00. So my total position is now long 7 contracts on bar 12:00. Price moves in my favor over the next three bars and reaches a 50% PB of the entire morning move own (see gray horizontal lines). 50% PB is an important level. I made a mistake here. By bar 12:15 I could have exited right at that 50% PB level but I didn't. I would have had all losses back and be up around 200.00 or so, I don't remember exactly. So my mistake here was not exiting my longs. What was the underlying reason for me not exiting? One word - GREED. I had already lost some money earlier today and I do not like losing so I thought I gonna give it some room to run and make me more money. BY the very next bar bar 12:20 it started going down and KEPT GOING DOWN as I watch my paper profits disappear before my eyes. I finally bit the bullet on bar 12:40 and exited with a loss. By this time if I remember correctly I was down 151.25 plus all the commissions from this trade and the previous trades! DO NOT GET GREEDY. GRAB THEM PROFITS WHEN THE MARKET GIVES THEM TO YOU. I BROKE MY GUIDELINES AND I PAYED THE PRICE. ALL ENTIRELY MY FAULT. I knew better. It isn't like I don't have the skills. A scalper has to maintain a high win rate. It is his most important metric, bar none. To successfully do that he has to grab what the market gives him and not jack around hoping for bigger profits. If he does jack around he will see good paper profits disappear before his eye and likely end the day losing.