Since I appreciate your posts here I will take a shot at answering. In my opinion the answer for most of the questions are "it depends": 1) Yes, in the sense that you should have a stop before entering the trade. Depending on your trading style it doesn't have to be a fixed number, might be an EMA as well for some I guess. If you don't have a rule to exit when the trade goes against you I believe sooner or later your account is gone. 2) Yes and no. I always try to enter with at least 2 contracts (MES at the moment) and for 1 I have a clear target, other one I try to trail. 3) For me definitely yes. If there is a trend I go with it, but ranges can be traded as well. 4) Yes and no. If you decide on an area to enter by avering into the position then obviously for a while you are adding to a loser. But adding after where you were supposed to be stopped hoping to turn a loser into a winner is a disaster. See 1) Keep up the good work Volpri!
I have taken I think 5 trades this morning. 1 loss, 5 winners. Will post charts later. Gotta run. Something else to do. Bye. Anybody know how dozzy doing? He is awful quiet. It ain’t like him. Maybe them boyz of his ain’t cooperating. Maybe Mickey with his math formula’s is raking in the cash or losing the cash since the market is not mathematical. Well...it can be to some degree, but never exact. We trade in a fog of uncertainty. 40% to 60% chance of being right or wrong. You just gotta know what to do when right and what to do when wrong...then JUST DO IT.
Ate breakfast..beans...eggs..sausage..orange juice ..no bread. Took a few more trades. I am done for the day unless I get the itch later in the afternoon. Got to work on things in the house. Great day for shorting. Over and over locking in them profits as Dozzies boyz are running. Just scoop them chips up. I took 8 trades, I believe it was. 1 losers. 7 winners. I will post the RTH chart and 24 hr chart later today with a few comments. I gotta rest a bit then my wife is expecting some work out me caulking and painting the master bathroom. Gotta keep momma happy you know.
As I am resting (lol) I decided to go ahead and post a 24hr chart showing the 8 trades. All were shorts but one. The first was a long and a losing trade. I will post more charts later on today’s trades and make some comments.
I worked a little got tired. Just don’t seem to have energy. And having headaches. Anyway my better half is cleaning the bathroom and then I will caulk. But while I am waiting for her to finish I just took two more scalps. Trades 9 and 10. Trade 9 a straight 2.75 point short scalp and trade 10 was an averaged down short scalp.
Just took an 11th and profitable trade. An averaged down short scalp. You might wonder why I am scalping short when for the last 26 bars we have had an uptrend that was at first an ascending triangle that then became a channel. The reason for short scalping in a bull channel is just look at all the bull bars attempt to push up (larger bull bars). Basically no FT. There is still weakness. Odds favor any move to the top of the channel will fail within 3 to 5 bars so I fade it for a scalp back down towards the center. Plus all that weakness since the open. Of course, if I see some real strength come back in I will go long.
The 12th trade. A long scalp. I did not follow it too far. Why not? Well still too much weakness. It could and did drop further on down on that next bear bar. But I grabbed that chip and left the casino.
I gotta get to caulking ...my sweetheart may get mad. I need supper. Bye for now. In summary 12 trades. 11 winners. One loser. See this can be done practically all day long nearly everyday except on the days it doesn't work ROLMAO. When you encounter a day like that you will know what to do. Throw the laptop in the trash can and go fishing.
PS I guess Mickey is sipping on coffee and scratching head thinking "how can this be." See Mickey ...Bar by bar analysis and seeing how it fits into the intraday PA IS NOT rubbish and can lead to ANTICIPATION of what will probably happen next, and with good odds. Or I just got lucky? Funny thing is the harder I work the luckier I get....(Henry Ford..I believe made that quote.) I concur.
I won’t make comments on every trade today. Just look at the charts I have posted and based on what I have discussed in several posts see if you can figure out what cycle or phase the market was in for each trade and try to figure out the tactic I employed for all 12 trades taken today. However, I do want to make a few comments about Trade 1 and trade 2. Also in a post following this one I will make some comments and posts charts showing trade 8. For the rest of the trades you review my posts in the past and try to understand why I traded where I traded. OK The first trade was a loser. I went long off the RTH’s chart because of the gap up on the open. Plus the first few bars were sideways (see highlighted area). I reasoned that if I would get long we would likely get at least a push up to the dotted orange line. (See dotted orange arrow too). Instead, right after I entered long on the very next bar (big bull bar) it spiked down with “gusto”. I knew I was on the wrong side of the market. I immediately dumped the trade and because of the dynamics on that bear bar (gusto...swoosh..no averaging down here). Then I turned around, not waiting for a PB, and doubled up short in the right direction (see second red triangle and blue arrow). On the very next bar I got my loss back and was in the money. See, that is how you get a loss back and do it quickly with little movement. Anytime the market indicates your original premise is wrong you have to take action. Do not wait. My premise was gap up ...sideways...we will likely get another push up at least to the top of that “highlighted little sideways move“ BEFORE we would go down. There was high probability of that. However, remember trading is a 40/60 proposition. That means I can be wrong anywhere between 40 and 60 percent of the time depending on the context and the setup. I got it wrong on this first trade. I quickly corrected my error, reversed doubling up and went in the correct direction. LESSONS TO LEARN: 1) ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A LOGICAL PREMISE 2) WHEN THE MARKET PROVES YOUR ORIGINAL PREMISE TO BE WRONG THEN ACT IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT HESITATE. THE PROCESS OF GETTING A LOSS BACK, AND DOING IT VERY QUICKLY IS ACTUALLY QUITE SIMPLE, BUT IT TAKES DECISIVENESS AND GUTS. YOU MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR PB TO ENTERING THE SECOND TIME. In this case because of the bars dynamics I saw no need to wait for a PB before entering a new trade, so I doubled up, and got my loss back. And ended the second trade with profit.