Thanks for reading my posts. I am glad you are enjoying them. I hope they are helpful. I sent you a PM.
Hello volpri, I also study Al Brooks price action course every other day when I am not working. Can you please copy and paste me the same thing you sent to nenuser. Thanks,
Thank you for the chart mark up and good trading. I certainly hope you relax over the weekend and get better. Maybe a good movie and sleep is needed now. I have one question and please no rush on responding. You can respond a few days from now when you get some time and rest. Question: 1. After I make a 10 point win with ES and one trade, can I stop trading for the day? I know many would say take all trades within the avaiable trading session (my trading avaiability is 7am to 9am), but there is always this fear of giving it all back. Lately, I have been sticking to this money management rule "If PnL is +$300 after two trades, stop trading, or just sim trade for practice for rest of avaible time." I try my best to trade in the direction of current trend 1 to 3 times per day. As an experienced trader, what is your thoughts on this? https://www.tradingview.com/x/8PFhqPJv/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/opLN2S79/
To answer your question. A 10 point win is a good win if you make in within first two hours. There is nothing wrong with stopping at a $300.00 profit whether made on 1 or 4 trades. You only have a couple hours for trading. Look at it this way. That is pretty good money per hour! There are days I am not in the “groove” with the move and I trip over myself getting it wrong on just about every trade. So after 3 or 4 times in a row of hitting in wrong I know I am not in a high win rate mode. Something is out of kilter with my judgement. There is no reason to try to fix it, or discover the problem, trading with real money. So just go to sim. There are days I wake up not feeling so well, my brain is cloudy, or feels confused. Why start trading live on days like that? In such days I prefer testing my mettle first on a sim. I can see if I am calling things right after 4 or 5 trades. Then if I want to I can go to trading money. I liken such times, of reverting to SIM, as sharpening the machete. You might find it useful to remember this story and apply it to trading: Years ago I lived in Honduras (back in the 80’s). I had a neighbor friend (an American). Well this friend of mine and myself together we hired a guard to watch our family and homes as we were gone much of the time. The guard was an older guy...in his 60’s probably, back then ( he actually just died a few years ago over 1O2 years old, I believe it was). He also would cut grass on the side (yards) with his machete and a hook stick. My neighbor would also hire him to cut his grass (this was back in the days before push mowers made it to that neck of the woods). The name of our guard was Don Gustavo. Well one day my neighbor needed his grass cut but for some reason Don Gustavo couldn't do it. When Don Gustavo cut grass he made it look so easy...took his time and always did a great job. He knew exactly how to cut that grass low and level and the finished job would end up as well, or better, than a lawn mower doing the job. Well, we had a friend, a Canadian, that lived in the same town. He had hired him an errand boy to run to town and do things for him and to cut his grass etc. This young man was strong...young..etc. Gustavo was old...not that strong. So, since on this particular time our guard couldn’t cut my friends grass he hired the young energetic errand boy. His name was Rueben. The day arrived for Rueben to come cut the grass. He had his machete. He got out there and being young, energetic, and muscular he began to swing hard and pummel the grass with his dull machete. He tried to beat it into submission and dominate it by brute strength. He finally succumbed to the arduous task and before it was over he was on his knees beating the stuffing out of the grass trying to finish cutting it. When he got done the job looked terrible. And poor Rueben was bushed. Don Gustavo, who was an old man, would cut the SAME yard with ease. I never saw him get on his knees and beat it. When he got done all was neat and pretty. It took him less time to do a great job that it took Rueben to do a terrible job. When Don Gustavo was asked about the difference between him and Rueben he laughed and his answer was amazing simple. He said, (if I remember his answer correctly) “I cut for 15 minutes then I stop and sharpen my machete for 15 minutes then I go back to cutting again for another 15 minutes and I repeat doing this until the job is done.” I never forgot the lesson here so here I am years later and now I am the old man and I still think of Don Gustavo, and his grass cutting strategies and tactics. He knew “how” to do a good job, how to make it easier, expend less energy, and take pride in his work. In trading there is no reason to cut with a dull machete. If a day is going badly then early in the session... stop...take a break from trading with money ..sharpen that machete by going to Sim and practicing trading to see if you can “get back in the groove.” Use the right strategies and tactics. Like Don Gustavo. In general there are some that are viable in just about any trading scenario but they have to be adapted to fit one’s preference too. For instance, in my case I don’t like sitting around resting on my rear waiting for the big trend or two of the day to appear. I had rather scalp over and over in all sorts of PA setting (based upon A VARIETY of concepts and principles) then if I happen to be trading when the bigger trend comes I can jump in on it too. There are times I can make more money (even after commissions) on scalping than I make catching the big trend or two. And often I will still scalp (in and out) even on the big trend over and over locking in profits...getting in on the trend again and again on a retracement thus compounding my play and end up making quite abit more than just getting in on the bigger trend and holding until it ends. I learned that technique from J.M. Hurst. I will scalp in and out several times with multiple entries and exits even in a big BO as it is occurring. I don’t just go for the big move rather I go for the many small moves within the big move. I will discuss your trade in my next post.
Just an interjection here. Can you stop trading after making 500 bux per day per contract? How much are your living expenses. Are you trading for a living. Etc etc etc. Of course you CAN stop trading for the day, but should you? Only YOU can answer that question for yourself. You wake up and see the daily range of ES at 100 points before the opening bell. You get 10 points in a couple of minutes, an hour. Are you content with $500 per day, or do you want to capture some more of that 100-point range? That's $100,000 per year before taxes on a 200-trading day year on 1 contract. Not bad for a few minutes to few hours work per day!
Now to your trade on your charts. In your first chart as your annotation says you are trading a BO of a range. I didn’t all the bars in the range but it must be over 100 bars. It is typical range behavior. Up..down...overlapping bars...races to the bottom...races to the top..since it went on for so many bars the BO has a 50% chance of being north and a 50% chance of BO south. Since your BO is about the 10th attempt for price to BO out of the top or the bottom of the range. And being it has gone on so long it could have a successful BO on either side of the range. In this cae it broke out of the bottom. However, to be classified as successful (remember 80% of BO attempts fail and price goes back into the range) it must have follow through (FT). So basically you want to see trading south of the range and their high staying below the bottom of the range. You get your FT like you said on that bear bar with the yellow dot closing near it’s low and outside the range. So far so good. You are playing this play perfectly. Now you are thinking of entries based upon you risk tolerance. Therefore, you need a PB to reduce your risk within acceptable levels for you. So, here below are your entry,exit, SL. Considering your risk tolerance and considering the prev PA in the previous PB’s you made an EXCELLENT trade. One based upon sound principles. I would have done a couple of things different but that is because I trade a little different and my risk tolerance is greater. But you did exactly what YOU needed to do.
Hello Volpri, Thank you so much for your posting. I really enjoy the read. Your writings is better than movie. Thanks.
Thank you very much volpri for my chart review. You summed up my analysis well. I am working on the PB entry methods and being careful of those breakouts and WAITING for following through and then entry as I know and have heard 80% of breakout fails. Those PB was beautiful setups, I am learning those as well. Yes, I would love to enter on Sell Stop Below that FT bar, but too much risk for me per trade, I have to wait and be patient.