Ok look at the two charts on post #481. Again, it makes more sense to take long trades off the 24 hour chart instead of going long in the middle of the TR on the TRH’s chart. So, I went long on the 24 hr chart as price was around the 20 Ema for a several point gain on 2 contracts. I am expecting the bull trend to resume as I already explained that all PB’s up to this point have been small so no selling pressure. I don’t expect this PB will turn into a bear trend reversal. When prior PB’s have been small then the next PB (like this one) when deeper will likely just lead to a range or some sideways action for a longer PB flag before the bull trend resumes. There just was not enough selling in the prior PB’s for this one though deep to become a bear reversal trend.
Now lets look at my third trade posts #482. This is a good trade off either chart. On the 24 hour chart look to the left of my entry bar. This is a double top. So chances are we will get some sort of Pb from this double top so I shorted limit order 2 contracts and then averaged down 2 more and then exited on the next bar with a profit. On the RTH's chart it was an averaged down short trade at the top of the the range box. This trade made good logical sense to take from either chart.
Ok lets look at my 4th trade post #483. This trade is better seen as taken from the 24 hr chart. On that chart it is a long 2 contract trade made in a bull leg and on a bull bar limit order trade near the bottom of the bull bar as it pull back about 50% on the previous bar. A bull bar that pulls back on a strong bull leg with the previous bar also being a bull bar has odds of going on up. So, I exited 1 contract and the next contract a few minutes later with more profit after price went up.
Ok lets look at my last and fifth trade. Post #484. This is basically a long 3 point scalp as price just went through 20 EMA. Scalp on a PB.
Often I will look at both a 24 hr chart and a RTH chart and see when chart makes more sense to be trading patterns off from. In all the trades today the 24 hour chart rendered the best logical trades. I actually should have used the color coded lines on the 24 hr chart instead of the RTH’s chart. Bottom line trade the chart that makes more logical sense to be trading patterns off from. In this case the 24 hour chart was a much better choice to trade from as the trading points made better logical sense on a 5 minute 24 hr as opposed to a 5 minute RTH’s chart.
I don't feel well today but I took two trades one in the ES and 1 in MES. They are almost identical trades with just a few exceptions. ES trade lags the MES and I manually took the ES last but they are basically the same trades based on the same principles and MES was 4 contracts short in MES averaged down 2+2 and in the ES it was 3 contracts averaged down 1+1+1. But the trades took place basically real close and for practical purposes are basically the same trade, you might argue. I am not gonna be posting any more trades today unless I get to feeling better and take some more. I am a diabetic and just do not feel well today and have learned it is best to not trade on such days as my brain does not think clearly. Anyways see, the process is the same. The earning potential is a lot greater in the ES but so is the risk as a trade goes against me and I averaged down in both. Hope it gives hope! PS in MES it rendered $55.00 profit Net 47.16 after comm. In the ES it rendered 637.50 minus 15.24 in commissions. Net $622.26 Each averaged down trade I consider one trade with it's entries and exits. So, basically two trades here today. Both winners. And done in a matter of minutes. My purpose in showing both trades, that are made real close together, and practically at the same time, is to show the same process (almost) can render a big difference in profits. Depending on the instrument traded and the size traded. See, the potential is there when doing the same basic process. This is just some scalping using the same principles and concepts. Guided by some of the same principles, one being, a "bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush." And "add to losers" and "cut profits short". See, too often traders get greedy and try to get more out of the market. In scalping 1 to 12 points just take what it is giving you and don't worry about "should have" "could have". A successful scalper knows there will probably be many more opportunities to scalp than he will be able to take in the session. So grab them profits before Dozzy's boyz scoop them chips up LOL! You can always enter again but if you let good profits go you will have a low win rate and that is tough to overcome ...for a scalper anyways. So, don't lose your handsome actual paper profit. It is money the market has given you. Like a stimulus check! Don't get greedy! Those of you that have large accounts to trade with would get bored with my little journal posting trades only in little MES making 400 to 1000 day. You would like bigger slices of the pie so here is a quick ES trade and even small one at that; 1 contract a lick on entries. ROFLMAO The first chart is MES 2+2 and the second chart is ES 1+1+1 on the averaged down entries in both cases. Both were short trades. The green triangle is the exit marker (all contracts at a wack in each trade), hard to see on a black bar but look closely it is there in both trades. Simplemelike asked me how do I know when to take profits. In general, in an averaged down trade when my initial entry has at least made the commissions for me I will exit, UNLESS the context AND the dynamic unfolding of the trade (i.e. the "way" the bars are being formed) seems to support holding on for some more. In both trades you can see the green exit markers are below the initial short entries so that means all contracts were profitable and the commissions prepaid! Like a prepaid credit card!
Don't know if I mentioned this above ..don't feel like reading my post again to see..but the first chart is MES 5 min 4/16/2020 and the second chart is ES 5 min 4/16/2020 and both are RTH's charts. So. lets see what happened. As I was typing the previous post this is what took place in the markets after my two short averaged down trades. Do you really wanting to be holding short positions in this? See, when you get a profit just take it. "To bed to bed said sleepy head. Lets wait awhile said slow. Hang onto the pot said greedy gut lets eat before we go." See, in scalping if you are slow in taking profits and a greedy gut you can kiss your paper profits goodbye. You will have to repay that stimulus check and a charge will be made on that prepaid credit card. Harm added to hurt Dozzy's boyz will have your chips. Maybe. They ain't always so right either. All of this said, what would I have done had I been caught flatfooted short on both short trades? Well I would have been out of both trades on or right after that big bull bar Because we had retraced more than 50% of the opening move down and closed high on the biggest bar since the open and it is a bull bar. Then I would have looked at where to double up and go long. That would be on those orange line. So, soon afterwards I would have my loss back and be in some good money. Would of..could of...stuff you know LOL. But is it what I would have likely done. Now, what if I would have continued trading after my shorts were exited instead of typing my previous posts? Well, I exited, with profits on my short trades, and still watching the markets I would have gone long on those same orange lines reasoning we got 5 bull bars and one two bar PB in the even those 2 bars shows buying (tail on bottom of that bear bar AND the bull bar before it). Plus more than 50% of the opening move has been retraced. We are likely going up at least some more enough for a good scalp before we would go back down. Too much buying pressure. So, I would just average down LONG at those orange line entry points. Before Dozzy's boyz show up. PS: For those of you who think I just got lucky on my shorts. I did not. It was all intentional. I grabbed my profits when I got them. Don't be a greedy gut nor slow when scalping. Keep that win rate up there. Cut those profits short! I average down on those losses (if the circumstances are right for averaging down). This is trading and scalping for crying out loud, not investing and marrying a position. Like Dozzy. He almost went thru a divorce on his beloved Q..LOL But if he can patch up his marriage he should be fine. We will soon be at ATH's. So cheers dozzy but don't cry too hard when we get another push down. It is likely coming after this sideways PA on a daily chart. Then we should see a rebound. Hopefully. We sure need it. Especially the investors and the confidence level of market participants needs to be restored. These things don't affect a scalper much like me cause whatever it does I am in and I am out, quickly, like a jack rabbit. Hopefully with a profit. If, I don't get to be a greedy gut. Well I gotta go for the day. Just don't feel good and am rambling. bye If I get to feeling better I might try to give an explanation of the short trades. A rationale. bye
Hello Volpri, I hope you are feeling better and get well through out the day. Thanks for the immune system juices recipes. There is no rush on my question below. You can even respond on the weekend when you get some free time. In effort to get better at my trade setup, I woul like to start identifying my setups. I took this trade today and I will call it a Trend Reversal Breakout as price reversed with strong buying pressure from overnight lows. I was stopped out of this trade and that is fine as my profit target was not reached. I believe this was a high probability trade due to the strong buying pressure Question: 1. Would you call this trade setup a Trend Reversal Breakout? Thanks, https://www.tradingview.com/x/9Mx3CVdI/
I think I know but am not sure of your entry. Could you please put a green dot of some sort on your entry. And a red dot just where you got stopped out. I am assuming from your description it is a long trade and that the purple arrow at the top was your PT. Not sure what your green arrow indicates? Yes, it is a trend reversal from a stacked trading range. It is a long trade. I can tell you I believe your problem with the trade was probably NOT your entry but your SL placement and your profit target. Once you confirm TO me both the bar and spot on the bar of BOTH your entry and SL (where you got taken out of the trade) then I will be able to give a better analysis. Hind Site analysis is always easier! As is being a back seat car driver LOL. Unfortunately, such analysis is the the only way we have to see, learn, grow, and develop concepts and ideas that have profit potential in the real trading world. Then we test them forward, first in a Sim then perhaps live if we are feeling real giddy. I am in bed but not totally out of it. Just resting. My brain is clearing up some. I guess I forgot to take my last meds before retiring last night and boy this morning I was out of kilter. BTY I did take another trade in MES but it was totally by accident, but profitable. I had somehow inadvertently left a working order on the DOM. The sucker bill executed and at some point in the day I took a look at the market and presto I had a good profit so I just immediately exited it . So ended day up over 200.OO in MES. Now that WAS luck. No other trades whatsoever today. Besides my computer battery is exhausted and I don't feel like walking over to the Motorhome to get the charger. So, I am typing this on the IPAD.
Thanks volpri, Yes, long trade as price reversed with strong buy pressure after failed breakout of overnight lows. green dot - entry - Buy stop order 1 tick above bull bar. purple dot - profit target orange dot - stop loss Lesson Learned: Pick the more conservative profit target at black line resistance. https://www.tradingview.com/x/EAoJEoZP/ I added context chart as well just in case.