Trades for Oct 2,2019 MES. 5 min Chart. TRADE 1 shorted 2 then averaged down 2 Exited 4; TRADE 2 shorted 1 then average down 2 Exited 3; TRADE 3 shorted 2 exited 2; TRADE 4 shorted 2 averaged down 2 Exited 4; TRADE 5 shorted 2 then added 8 more shorts averaging down 2 at a time. Exited 10; TRADE 6 shorted 2 Exited 2 Trades # 3 and Trade #6 were straight shorts. Trades #1,#2,#4 #5 were all shorts but used the technique of averaging down into a losing position. Sends the guru’s into a tailspin! Scalping and averaging down can work together good if the context is right and a trader is disciplined to takes the necessary loss when PA demands it be taken because the trader’s premise has been proven wrong. In this case ...a piece of pie. Context was great for doing it. The larger and smaller context. Averaging down, in addition to making money has the additional benefit of High Win Rate which is a most important metric for a scalper of 1 to 8 points. Get really good at this and it is a matter of trading bigger size for decent $. However, I do not average down on just ANY trade in ANY larger context. That is a sure way to lose big if the context is wrong for doing it.
OCT 1 -- volpri, I take it that the ORBO coinciding w/ a bad PMI report was not relevant to your trading, or was it ?
I don’t listen to news...report...feds..or any of that stuff. There can be a bullish or a bearish response to any of them. Sometimes on bad news markets can go up and on good news they can go down. The way I look at these matters: Since whatever I need to know will show up in the chart i.e. the price action and since I am a SHORT-TERM PA trader I can turn on a dime. They just don’t matter to me. Besides “fake” news for the markets abounds and not just in the political world.
Well I do analysis live as I trade but I can’t very well post a chart that hasn’t yet come into being now can I? I take my trades and then try to show on a chart once I get snapshots. Hopefully, they will show my reasoning for taking the trade and my reasoning behind my decisions.
On my last 10 lot trade the entries circle in yellow they were averaged in (down) into a losing position as price pullback to 50% of the first leg down in the measured move (red MM’s legs to left of chart). Therefore, I was able to exit on the entire 10 lot with profit as the pb failed as a reversal. Why would I trust that the PB was a PB and not a reversal? CONTEXT..CONTEXT... Gap down open. Then bear bars followed by sideways action. Then BO south of that sideways action and that BO had a good bear FT bar that did not fill the BO gap (red). Therefore, the PB is probably just a minor reversal and bear trend will continue. Not to mention overlapping bars in the PB. Plus overall context bearish. Probally be a measured move down and there was but I chose to lock in profit on my 10 lot. Then made another trade in the second leg of the MM down. Context...ALL THINGS BEARISH. PRICE WAY BELOW BOTH MA’s. High probability that the trend will continue down but I had to stop trading.