no problem mister. we can have different opinion, different way of doing things. we just focus on bottom line - ie make $$$
I am not trading right now. But I was trading "right now" and live when I took those trades. A range had been established and I was using range trading techniques. Upon awaking and look at those 5 bull bars on the open of the RTH's session I simply looked at the 24 hour chart and it was easy to see we had an established range for way more than 20 bars so I employed range trading techniques. The reason I want to wait for 20 bars sideways before using range techniques is because it could be just a PB, not a range, and that would call using for using BO techniques or channel techniques.
I get it. Keep going because knowing what you said earlier about Brooks, I get how you are framing the market. Very interesting to see you put it into practice. I show the volume bars at the bottom of the chart. Lots of contracts being traded every 5 minutes tells us that many professional traders, by which I mean institutional traders, were trading throughout the session. Good stuff, volpri.
Here is a trade this morning. I will miss entering back in again for now but I wanted to get this posted and an explanation. This was a 6 point profitable trade. It is a BO trade. Usually on these sort of trades one can exit (locking in profit) then enter again on a Pb below their last exit wait for another leg up and exit a second time thus compounding profits, so to speak. On to the trade. There are two charts. 24 hour overnight with range box drawn in. And the RTH’s chart. The first shows a range that has been ongoing since midnight. The latter shows a gap up opening this morning. Now remember the concept. In range trading I want to short at the top (and perhaps average down if it were to move against me) then wait for a move back towards the center or bottom of the range if it appears to have enough bearish pressure to get to the bottom. Then at the bottom I will go long (and perhaps average down) and wait to exit near the center of the range or the top if there appears to be sufficient bullish pressure to reach the top. So, back to the charts. If you look at the 24 hour chart you will see price opened this morning close to the top of the range. So, why did I go long on this trade i stead of shorting? Why did I not follow the concept explained above for range trading? One word context. The larger context we see depicted on the 24 hour chart and it is a range (sideways). Now look at the latter RTH’s chart. Price open gap up about 17.5 points. That means that overnight price trade up from yesterday’s close even though it was within the larger range (sideways move) on the 24 chart. This action is the intermediate or medium context. And it is bullish. Next we see on the RTH’s chart It promptly trades above the last 81 bars breaking above yesterday’s high and does so on the very first bar. That is the immediate context and it is bullish. To cap off. Longer context is bearish. Intermediate is bullish. Immediate is bullish. So, who is going to win bulls or bears? If I am just looking at the larger context on the 24 hour chart I will be shorting as price on today’s open was at the top of the range. However the intermediate context and the immediate context stops me from shorting at the open. Why? Well they both are bullish and price is at the top of the range. So...I am waiting to see if price is going to BO above the top of the range box on the 24 chart. If it does with a successful BO then I am making haste and getting long. Now what happened? Lets see if we can detect the pressures. Look are the latter RTH’s chart. Price opens 17.5 points gap up = bullish pressures. First to bars are bear bars with bears trying to close the gap. Bull are simply buying. I mean like yesterday was sideways most all day and so we open 17.5 points gap up. Does it really look like bears will win? They could but odds are quite abit higher that bulls will win this first attempt by the bears to push price down and close the gap. So bulls are buying as price slides south on the first two bars. By the third and fourth bar we know bulls are winning. Why? 17.5 point gap up on open. First attempt by bears to close the gap fails. Bulls take over and we get 7 bull bars in sequence. That my friend is pressure and a sign bulls are winning and price is going higher. If you count 8 bars from the open we get to my entry bar. What are signs of buying pressure? Gaps between close of one bar and the close of the previous bar? Gaps between the high of one bar and the high of the previous. Series of bull bars. Bull bars getting larger. Bars closing above the high of many previous bars. All signs of buying pressure. So, by the end of the seventh bar from the open on the RTH’s chart the immediate price context is convincing me that we are going higher. But I am still not long? Why? Well lets look at the 24 hour chart and we will see why.
Those moving averages you are using are completely useless, Moving averages represent a certain degree of momentum, If you need them to hold your hand than obviously they are serving some type of purpose, for me they are just visual noise. If you drew a horizontal line below the shop, the line would have provided much more use. Break outs above or below would have proved way more profit than having squiggles. I only wish it didn't take me 30 years to find that out. Keep up the good work, Trading is a learning journey.
Sorry but I have to continue the explanation in a new post as my 60 min limitation ran out for editing the above post. So here we go continuing the explanation: To recap from RTH’s chart. We got 6 bars from the open. 2 are bear bars trying to close the 17.5 point opening gap. 4 are bull bars pushing for a BO of the range on the other 24 hour chart. I still have not taken a position. Why not? Simple. I am waiting to see if price is going to BO above that trading range on the 24 chart before I take a position. Second, I want to see the dynamic of the BO (i.e. how it makes the B.O.). See, normally I like to wait to see if a BO is going to be successful before I take a position. By successful I mean a BO with FT (follow-thru). However, in this case we got a 17.5 opening gap buying pressure. Bears fail to close the gap. Then 4 bull bars in succession. Price is hovering near top of the range on 24 hour chart. So because of the bullish pressures winning I may take an early BO. But I am waiting to see the manner in which the BO occurs i.e. the dynamic. Now lets zero in on the BO. Look at the 24 hour chart. The one with the gray range box. The BO is made on the 8th bar after the open. Look at the bar. It is the largest bull bar of the last 81 bars and it is closing on it’s high. So recap. We got a 17.5 opening gap from yesterdays close. We got a failed attempt by the bears to close that gap. We got 5 bull bars in sequence after the bears fail. We got gaps between the close of bars and the previous bars. We got bull bars increasing in size. We got tails on the bottom of 4 bull bars. Although the 5th bull bars has a tail on top it still closes as a bull bar and has a gap between its close and the previous bars close. And a gap between it’s close and the previous first bull bars close. Finally the BO bars that BO above that range is the biggest bull bar of the last 81 bars. So what is the dynamic of the BO out of the top of the range? With buying pressure! I need to wait no longer to decide if this is going to be a successful BO and have subsequent FT. The odds are it WILL have FT. So...I immediately take a long position with further ado at the top of the range. In addition by the time of my entry point price is staying above all three MA’s. Buying pressure again. Summary: So I go long at the top of a range where I normally would not but I do so because of buying pressure and I deemed that price, while at the top of the range on the open, was in fact in BO mode. I just needed to see that dynamic take place then make my entry. And We need to realize that BO’s usually have at least 2 legs so I ain’t looking for a 1 point scalp here. I exited early to take snapshots and type this explanation so I just let it run the first leg and took profits. A 6 point winner. This price action in the box was also a BO of a previous tight bear channel that in effect was simply a large bull flag. I don’t have time for anymore trading right now but might get in another trade later on. Maybe this will help some see how I read price action within bars and within patterns and within contexts. I suggest looking a yesterday’s charts and compare with today’s charts. Yesterdays was gap down open. Yesterday, I had no hesitation shorting the market from the middle of the range averaging down up to the top and all for a profit. Why? The context was different. Context is far more important than any single pattern or bar.
I am glad for you that you discovered MA’s are useless. For you, at least. For me, I find them quite useful but I probably use them in a different way than you did. I am glad for you that you discovered MA’s are useless. For you, at least. For me, I find them quite useful but I probably use them in a different way than you did.The range box contained by horizontal lines above and below the sideways chop, as you call. I see NO noise in the markets. Even a one tick move does so for a reason. The market is NOT random. I just wanna see which side is building the pressure and winning. Chop as you call is is just both sides are about equal in applying pressure to the markets. Is chop tradeable? You bet. 70% of the market is chop or sideways move. If it is broad enough it is tradeable for scalps. You must be a BO trader? I trade chop while I am waiting for a BO. Then I trade the BO like I did in my first trade except I would hold for a second or third leg. That is the difference I suppose between you and I.
Here are two LONG 1 point scalps. May be time to explain. We will see. Gotta run. Anyway 3 trades all winners. 8 points captured. No averaging down today in any of these trades. No need to. Plenty of chances to do so in the area I missed trading while typing but I have a one track mind. I wanted to explain that first 6 point trade in detail.
Yes, illusion at best, but this idea of yours was mine, when I was using them, as others said the same thing i just did, Like I said trading is a constant learning process, we all learn differently.