Man I'm feeling really bad now for what I posted but I wanted to tell you the reality of the stockmarket there are alot of people of there "just starting" out who have no chance in this or any other market. I Don't wanna shit on you, I was lucky to have made money in the market when I did, it has become an almost impossible game where if you ain't playing with enough money your already fucked from the start. I don't mean to be rude to people who are trying I just hope they don't go down thay road.
If had another option I would 100 percent tell myself to do something else or tell the young person asking the same thing.
Volpri, mahalo nui loa for your time. It's a shame to hear you're thinking of wrapping things up at ET. You quickly became a legend here and one of the top influencers in my trading journey. A hui hou, Iceberg
Don't worry about it. What you posted was civil. I was already thinking of stopping. I am 70 years old now and don't have the energy to do this and other things that I do like gardening...maintenance on the motorhome ..and other vehicles. Plus the DW's to do list.
Thanks for the kind words. I am glad that concepts I shared have a positive influence. Who knows one day I might come out of retirement like the late George Foreman did at one time! But at this stage it takes a lot of my time and energy to write up these posts with their detailed explanations, take and post marked up charts and make videos plus all the other things I have to do around the house. I think I have maybe shared enough in my journal (although I have many more things I could share) to give folks something to think about. I suggest study the journal and by all means watch the videos even those done on a SIM. It will be good entertainment if nothing else.
I totally understand colleagues concerns for other new traders. However, I wanted to show that it is possible to start with small capital, trade small size, compound money, and grow an account. I did this on a SIM thus I avoid the hassle of proving anything. Had I done this in a real money account it really doesn't mean anything even if a third-party audit of that account took place and was shown. I could be making money in that one account and losing 3 times as much in another trading account. The techniques I share can be seen on a live data SIM that is a reliable SIM just as well as in a real money account. So, again what I wanted to show can be shown on a SIM just as well as in a real account. Without the accusations, the cutdowns, wasting time defending the techniques...etc. I don't mind answering questions about a technique but I don't like it being dismissed as BS without a poster even testing it out on a SIM. In the end seeing if it works for you as a trader should be done on a SIM. That is where a trader can test the legitimacy of a technique out without interference from his emotional tug of the emotions and the influence of his psychological mindset. In other words, he can more objectively determine if the technique is valid or not by trading it on a SIM. We all have different limits on our tolerance for risk. And our emotions and psychological makeup have a lot to do with our success. SIM is neutral for testing purposes, at least as neutral as it can be in making entries and exits with live data. Never underestimate live SIM trading as a viable tool to learn procedures, develop skills and learning how and when to execute trades. There are just that certain things have to be understood when trading with live data on a SIM that is a reliable SIM. 1) There will be times on a SIM that an order gets executed when price reaches and just touches it. That isn't realistic. It makes it look like the order was executed but in reality one has to wait for the next bar or two to see IF it really would have been executed. Price usually has to go through the price of an order by at least 1 tick to really have gotten executed. So, a 4 tick gain in the "real world" really requires a six tick move. One tick more for the entry and one tick more for the exit. If my triangle entry and exit points show price did in fact trade through them and not just touched them then that is what would have actually happened in a real money live account. 2) The emotional factor in SIM trading is not there either. At least certainly not in the full force of trading with a real money account. Psychology and mindset are likely the most difficult thing to learn how to handle in relation to trading live accounts. Anyone can learn a trade setup. However, putting that setup into action with real money is a "horse of a different color." That is why I think practice...practice...practice on a SIM until one gains the confidence of trading the different PA contexts and the setups therein is so crucial to being able to pull it off. For myself trading action and trading reaction has to almost be second nature when scalping. I have to know what I will do if X happens and how I will react if something doesn't happen the way that I thought it would happen. Trading in general is 60/40 band or window on most any bar. While there are times that the probability is 60% that X trade will be a successful trade there remains 40% that it will not be successful. In rare occasions (like really strong BOs) that 60% may go to 80% even 90%. In scalping tight SL will lower the probability of the trade working out. They end up in bleeding account via a thousand paper cuts so to speak. Wider SLs IMO have to put used because of the algo's. The type of scalping I do could be termed "manual HFT." Using tight SLs chances are my SL will get hit before my profit target gets hit. Hence by using a tight SL I am actually increasing the probability that the trade will be a losing trade. However, if the PT is LESS than the risk AND the CONTEXT is right then there exist a higher probability that the trade will work out; that my profit target will get hit before my SL gets hit. In scalping I try to take high probability trades and that means I settle for smaller reward, bigger risks, but higher probability. That is how I maintain a high win rate. Here is a video that delves into this a little more maybe with a little different slant, but it is certainly worth thinking through the concepts he presents. I don't know the guy only that he follows Brooks. Al Brooks' 40%-60% Rule The one area that many forget to assess when taking a trade is CONTEXT. Just structuring a 3x reward to risk without taking into consideration the context in which the trade is going to be placed while mathematically sounds good, in reality if placed in a bad context then the probability of the trade being successful goes way down regardless of what the R:R metrics are that I as a trader would use. Just because I structure a trade with a 3:1 REWARD TO RISK (with the first number being the reward) doesn't mean anything in terms of the probability of the trade working out. IMO way too much mathematical emphasis is placed upon the R:R metric as it generally leaves out the probability because it doesn't take into account the context and how context influences whether the R:R equation will in fact work out. It seems like most traders just want a simple secret sauce setup that they can implement that will give them a profit way more than it doesn't. We need to understand that the secret sauce IS the context + the setup and not just the setup alone nor the R:R metric. The market just simply doesn't take heed to our metrics. Instead, WE should take heed it's metrics and what price is showing us that it IS doing. That is why it takes being good at reading price action contexts when assessing the probability of the trade being a winner as opposed to a loser. Remember it is the institutions that drive the prices we see appear on the chart in graphical form. Thus, they cannot hide what they are doing. It is all there for all to see if we can just learn to discern it. Every bar and every tick is being created by an institution. That is why it is important to understand to develop the skill to read what they are doing bar by bar as they do it. Not that they are looking and trading on 1m, 5m, 10m, TFs but the pressure they create WILL show up on all tie frames whether they are trading a 5m TF or a 60m TF those pressure will show up on a 1m or even a 10 second TF. I do not worry about dark pools or manipulation or secret exchanges (so to speak) that institutions may or may not have access to. The point is I don't and never will have access to such things, so I have to see what is happening on the graphical interface that is being drawn out on my platform. In the end that is what counts because that is ALL I can see! So, if I think because of the context that a profitable scalp is likely to pan out I will settle for a smaller reward than my risk and that only adds MORE probability to the equation that I will get a winner. And then I get to compound that winner on subsequent trades. In other words, I enter the trade based upon the contexts of PA and the individual setup and take a quick profit. I know that flies in the face of conventional trading advice which is "cut losses quickly and let profits run" but I am talking about scalping here. Why do most traders fail (if the stats are correct that they do) if most are following conventional wisdom such as that I just mentioned and following, for instance, NO averaging down. Me thinks what they fail to see and fail to judge properly, is that discerning the context is KING. There are times that in the right context averaging down actually puts MORE probability in my favor that I will end up with a profitable trade. However, I cannot average down at whim. It has to be strategic. I will post the summary of the 12-day SIM trading exercise shortly. I suggest watching the videos as you look over the summary. It might be fun!
@volpri, I seldom post but I am a long time lurker and trader. I thank you for bottom of my heart for your contribution by this thread. It converted me from a breakeven trader to profitable day trader. I am still in initial innings of my journey (in terms of sizing up) and have to instill some hard discipline to better handle adverse situation/being wrong but will get there with practice...I was a brooks reader/follower but never got over the hump of managing trades and always sought best setups but your journal and approach helped me overcame that. Again thanks a lot and wish you very best in life. On personal note, for diabetes management please check intermittent fasting which may help a lot (it helped to some of my relatives).
Here is the summary of the 12-day exercise. I suggest watching the videos and read the summary. The numbers should be correct on the summary. On the videos at the end of each video I sometimes made an erroneous calculation...at least I think so ... therefore go by the summary stats here.