LOL It's called the ET effect, the more you keep coming back to the forum the faster it sucks the intelligence out of you. Kind of like dementia. There is no cure.
Now I know why @NoDoji quit ET. You are absolutely right. I used to have very thick skins and I realized as my time on ET increases, my skins get thinner. It is an anonymous forum, why should I get upset when another anonymous poster questioned my manhood? Very silly indeed. You are a good man and a gentleman, so let me try to respond, not about my brokerage account but about @volpri's approach which I demonstrated to myself with math, sim and live data that indeed it is very viable. Let me explain for the benefit of newbies trying out day trading. 1. There is a mathematical relationship between R:R and win rate. The higher the R:R the lower the win rate. 2. There is also a mathematical relationship between R:R, win rate and expectancy. This one is complex, depending on the boundary conditions, the starting assumptions.... But in general, if the stock price behavior is random, all have negative expectancy because of slippages and commission. Fortunately there are non random elements and if you can find it, you can get positive expectancy. One common way to get positive expectancy is if you know the directional move. There are other ways. 3. In general, all things being equal, a R:R > 1 will give higher expectancy than a R:R < 1. There are special cases where R:R < 1 can have higher expectancy but it is difficult to find. All of the experts who criticized @volpri never tested his approach, they only looked at his sim and said it cannot be real because we all know sim < live. They said he is full of shit because once upon a time he blew up his account in a month. To me these are neither necessary nor sufficient conditions to dismiss him. How many ET traders following the conventional wisdoms, in their journals did a R:R > 1 approach and blew up? 99% and why are they not full of shit? I sim and live tested both. R:R > 1 did give me 5 to 1 higher profits. Why am I doing the R:R <1? Because it gives me more winning days and that is reassuring for my emotional well being. For any newbie, trying sim or small size live day trading, I think you have a better chance of not blowing up with taking small profit often instead of hunting for a breakout, a big payday. Also, think modest, don't dismiss a 0.2% daily profit rate, in a year, that translates to a 50% return, much better than buy and hold SPY. A word of caution, I don't care who you are, 99% of you will fail, whether you use R:R > 1 or < 1. @volpri, hang in there. You are still my hero.
One comment I don't recall ever blowing up an account in a month. Sim or otherwise. So, I would caution traders to be careful about who they believe. Like on the tariff thread. People just make up stuff that they have little or no understanding about.
Monroe Trout. Market Wizard: But still, I’m sure a lot of your professors believe in the efficient market hypothesis. Right, and that’s probably why they’re professors and why I’m making money doing what I’m doing. Also, I think it’s amazing what you can do when you have real money on the line. A person in an academic setting might think that they have tested all possible types of systems. However, when you have real money on the line, you can start to think pretty creatively. There is always something to test. I think that the academic community just hasn’t tested many of the approaches that are viable. Certainly, if you just spend a short time doing an academic study, you’re not going to find anything significant. It can’t be any other way. If it were, everyone would be rich. But if you spend every day of your life researching the markets and have adequate computer support, you can find stuff that works.
I have NOTHING to prove. I am not a mentor. My personal money business is just that PERSONAL. Whether I make 5% or 80% or never make a penny is not going to make any difference in any one's account. This is a journal simply showing or teaching how I like to scalp. I am not telling anyone to trade this way nor advising anyone to trade the way I show in my journal. If traders that are new traders find some entertainment from it then good. If veteran traders find it laughable then good. If traders in general think what I say about trading and scalping in my journal is a sack of sh?t then DO NOT read it. However, I do appreciate the positive comments about the journal that some have made. It can get tiring hearing the negative stuff especially when I put a lot of effort into this journal, am not selling anything nor plan on selling anything, and I am not teaching a method but simply showing how I trade SIM or otherwise. These things said: I WILL NOT TALK MONEY, WHAT I MAKE OR WHAT I LOSE, EXCEPT WHAT I DISCLOSE IN THE JOURNAL TO SHOW HOW MY TRADING ON A SIM OR REAL ACCOUNT IS MAKING OR LOSING IN SUCH SPECIFIC TRADES THAT I WISH TO DISCLOSE THAT INDICATE OR SHOW HOW I LIKE TO SCALP AND TRADE. I HAVE NO PLANS TO SHOW ANY PROOFS IN THIS JOURNAL SUCH AS ACCOUNT STATEMENTS OR DETAILS OTHER THAN I SHOW IN THIS JOURNAL TO ILLUSTRATE THE TRADES IN THE JOURNAL. I WILL NOT IN THIS JOURNAL SHOW ANY THIRD-PARTY AUDITS. DO NOT WALK DOWN THAT DEAD END ALLEY. I AM NOT ADVISING ANY ONE TO TRADE THIS WAY. IF THEY CHOOSE TO DO SO THEN THAT IS ON THEM NOT ME. IT IS A JOURNAL. PERIOD. IF ANYONE LIKES OR GETS SOMETHING OUT OF THIS JOURNAL SOMETHING THAT INTRIGUES THEM OR CHALLENGES THEM AND THEY WANT TO TRY IT THEN THAT DECISION IS ENTIRELY ON THEM AND I IMPLORE THEM TO ONLY DO IT ON A SIM NEVER ON OR IN A REAL MONEY ACCOUNT. I HOPE TO SETTLE THESE ISSUES BY THIS ABOVE AND THIS BELOW: I simply don't want to get into; is this real or is this sim? So PLEASE just assume it is SIM unless I say different. The procedures are the same whether SIM or live because it is a live SIM using the same data feed as a live account. If that troubles you then just add 1 tick on any SIM fill I show and 1 tick on any SIM exit I show and then see if the trade would have worked out on the bar it did take place on or on the very BAR it was placed on or next FEW bar or few bars. For instance, to capture 4 ticks is going to in most cases, require a 6-tick move. By this I mean for example if on a SIM of NQ or MNQ using a limit order to go long I place an order to go long at 21600.25 and it gets filled just assume it had to make it to 21600.00 for that order to have really gotten filled on a live money account. Likewise, for the exit say the same trade was intended to capture 1 point on a SIM which would be 21601.25 simply add 1 tick to that long exit and know that price would have had to likely gone to 21601.50 to have gotten filled on a real live money account. So, a 4-tick profit on a SIM would actually (most of the time) REQUIRE a 6-tick actual move for the entry and the exit to have realistically gotten filled on real money account. Hence a 6-tick move. So, 21601.50 - 21600.00 = a 1.5 point or 6-tick move. Then simply look at the bar or bars the entry and exit took place on and visually judge if my entry and exit would have actually been filled on the bar they took place on or on the very next bar or next few bars. If not, then then the trade likely would not have gotten executed on a live money account. If not executed, then it cannot count as either a win or a loss because it is basically a non-existent trade. All this to say a 4 tick or 1point profit is going to take a 6 tick or 1.5 point move to actually get filled on the entry and on the exit in a real live money account. I also realize that real money account puts additional factors into play, but those factors are personal issues that a trader has and are not related to the procedures I am showing in my journal that show how I like to trade and scalp. And some of the procedures I could not even pull off in SIM or REAL account with a small account size. Some would require a large account to even think about trying them on a SIM or otherwise. Therefore, just assume all these videos to be in SIM. If that displease you then simply don't read the journal or watch the videos. Hopefully, what I am saying here in this post will settle the issue and then maybe people will be satisfied. If they want to watch the videos on a live SIM that I post in this journal and/or study the screen shots (with their annotations and posts I make) from a live SIM then fine. If not fine too. So.....PLEASE JUST ASSUME ALL TRADES SHOWN IN ANY POST IN THIS JOURNAL OR ANY VIDEOS THAT ARE LINKED IN THIS JOURNAL ARE ON A SIM UNLESS I SPECIFICALLY SAY OTHERWISE. AND DON'T ASK ME TO PROVE ANY THING. JUST LOOK AT THE PROCEDURE I SHOW IN THIS JOURNAL AND LINKED VIDEOS AND TRY THEM FOR YOURSELF ON A SIM ONLY. SEE IF YOU CAN MAKE THEM WORK ON A SIM ONLY. THEY ARE THERE FOR YOUR ENTERTAINMENT AND INFORMATION. WHAT YOU DO WITH ANYTHING IN THIS JOURNAL IS YOUR BUSINESS NOT MINE. AND I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FASHION. AND I AM NOT ADVISING YOU OR TELLING YOU OR SUGGESTING TO YOU (NEW TRADRS AND VETERAN TRADERS ALIKE) TO FOLLOW THESE PROCEDURES IN A LIVE MONEY ACCOUNT. Disclaimer: All of these YouTube video links and videos, screen shots, comments made by me are for entertainment and information purpose only that show how I like to trade and scalp. Actual results can be different than any Real money accounts results or SIM results posted here in this journal so I am not advising anyone to use these techniques. You may not and probably will not get the same results as shown in all these videos, screen, shots and my comments and you can even lose all your money plus more. I don't think I can be much clearer.
When you are not selling anything like volpri, posting does not bear much responsibility. The personal responsibility falls on the person trying to get rich by employing methods they see online. Which is why volpri has added more value than all of us combined, since we never disclosed our methods publicly.
One advice I have for my fellow newbie day traders, keep an open mind and seek your own path, preferably a path less travel.
Regarding value, I came to think of this book title. Anyway, I'm done with this discussion. No need to drag it out. Good luck to volpri and all his students.
First, I am not a mentor on trading therefore I have NO STUDENTS. Some may take what is in my journal and self-mentor but then they are their own mentor and their own student. I can't stop them from doing so I can only warn them. Will this work for a yacht? LOL as SML likes to say "get rich as fast as you can!" Only problem is it can be hard and yachts ...nice yachts..are often more dreams than reality.