To rise above the semantics, @volpri, perhaps from now on you could just state whether you are "adding to losers" or "adding to winners". Hard to tell from your chart annotations, to be honest, because you are not annotating each and every arrow on your charts.
My sense is that volpri's trading approach may be difficult to assimilate bc unlike anyone else who describes their trading, he gives highest priority to his assessment win probability, and thus takes trades that from a probability-independent risk reward calculation are often terrible. But probability sems to vastly exceed the RR in the trades he chooses, and thus he is profitable, per his descriptions of his trades. I have seen earlier posts from volpri where he had more documentation of actual trades than in this thread so far.
Hopefully he clears it up himself, but below suggests to me a scaling in approach. That's not adding to losers or winners. That's saying I want to be in a full position somewhere in that area with average price range around X +/-Y. If that area doesn't hold, I am out. It's just different from "all in, all out" approach. @volpri, please correct me if I'm wrong. "I GO LONG IN THE BOTTOM And average down if need be in 1/3 of the range."
From where I sit, yes it is. He is simply adding to losers or winners to move his average price closer to the BE point.
No I am not using order flow at all for my trading decisions. The chart tells me openhigh/low of the bar and the speed at which they are made. safer shorting because it was a bear channel. Nothing to do with order flow. Yes I look at 15 and thirty min charts and it does have something to do with my def of scalping maybe not yours. Some of my scalps are 60 seconds even less if price goes swoosh right after i get in. Some are 10 or more min and yes it does qualify for my def of scalping 1 to 8 points. Sometimes it takes that long. Even longer. You may not call it a scalp but I do. See your def of scalp is and mine are just different. no i don’t need to look at other time frames to scalp but I do sometimes. I am mentioning it here because I am showing the relationship between TF’s. You may need to study my posts here to understand why I would even look at other time frames. Some algo’s are milliseconds but certainly not all. You got all the proof I am giving. Just learn the concepts and practice them. Maybe they will work for you. yes i have a high win rate and it is important for folks to see that this way of trading has the potential to render a high win rate. at least I think that is important. especially the averaging down trades done in the right context can render high win rate. Maybe I will be successful driving home that point. I think too often traders get their accounts busted by having stops losses too close and after taking them out the market goes in their direction. when they could average down and end up with a winner. thanks for the comment on the thread being good education. I don’t ever recall mentioning pressures in the Dom. All the pressures i talk about are on the chart or individual bars. Again I do not use the DOM for anything but placing trades and adjusting bracket orders, according to what I see on the chart. The is not where I make my trade decisions. Now years and years ago I used to scalp the spread on level 2 back in the days of when prices were quoted in 1/16...1/8..1/2...etc. but that has absolutely nothing to do with this type of trading I am presenting here. As far as position size yes I vary that and that sometimes depends on the volatility of the market and the dynamic as the price action unfolds. i try not to trade big size in these post because most traders probably don’t have big accounts and if I do they could possibly see it as something that cannot be achieved by themselves.
You mention this often. What is your cut-off point from high-win-rate to not-high-win-rate? I believe you have shown in the past that your usual win-rate is 90 % of your trades. So at what level does win-rate become a detriment in your eyes? 80%? 70%? 50%?
It can be looked at as scaling in however, it IS adding to a losing position. I will add long in a range generally all the way to the bottom and even somewhat through the bottom i.e. on the other side of the bottom but I don’t like to add much further than that and had rather just hold my averaged down position for longer time period for price to come back as long as my premise is still holding water. Of course, sometimes I make a mistake or bad judgment like anyone else.