I have the same worry. I don't practice double down, would rather take the hit, accept a lower win rate and smaller profit margins.
I consider myself a scalper of the ES, NQ as well. As to the ES, for me 4 to 10 points is a scalp, with an occasional 20+ point intraday swing trade. I do not trade the volpri way. I did used to allow myself three scale ins, but my biggest losers were always those were I scaled in to two more contracts as the trade went against me. It was much easier for me just to learn to pick good spots in the ES to get in with a reasonable stop loss of maybe 3 points, and then to hold it for a 4 to 10 point profit or more depending upon the context than it is to take a position and then keep averaging down, doubling down, martingaling and so on. This is volpri's journal and I'm not posting this to slight his method at all. I'm just responding to your genuinely valid concern. Given your concern, I'm just offering to you that there is a better way for you, even if this is the best way for volpri.
I don't have a set SL. I use a PA SL based on Price Action dynamics. And I move them around as price fluctuates. Typically, they are based on some swing low or swing high but even then will move them if momentum or volatility so dictates.
Doesn't work for me. Too many losses too many paper cuts to make up with smaller profits. Maybe you can make it work. I am scalping for small profits. I have to maintain a high win rate. That is the most important metric for myself in scalping for small profits. I have to average down and at times martingale to put probability in my favor so that I will end up with a profit and a winning trade versus a loss. Should that not pan out THEN I go to whittling down IF the larger context and the intermediate context support whittling down. If not, (i.e. the contexts they don't support it) I take the loss where it stands double or triple up and reverse directions. I am not gonna let it run away from me and my accounts suffer irreparable damage with some huge loss. I will do WHATEVER IT TAKES to not blow an account. Averaging down and even using martingale again is not to avoid a loss but to put probability in my favor that I will get an overall profitable win out of the trade and of course the end result is I do in fact avoid a loss. Even person has to do whatever floats their boat. I know what floats mine.
I employ FOT (frequency of trades) in scalping and find it hard to get enough really good entries without watching price the entire session. Every BO will receive a push back to make it fail. And the push back will receive a push against it to make it fail. The single most important thing is to know how to trade a BO that fails or that is successful. Averaging down helps me do that. The market is ALWAYS in breakout out of some sort. The previous bar. The previous 5 bars. A chart pattern..TR..flag..triangle etc. The session high/low. Yesterday's high/low. So how do we as scalpers trade failed and successful BO's? Do we have techniques to do so? In other words, how will we identify a BO and how will we trade it if it is a FBO (failed BO) or a SBO (successful BO). The market is always in a channel (on some TF) and always in some sort of BO. And sometimes the worst looking setups become the most profitable.
Because I am not you. It takes skills to do average down without getting killed (I got killed in my sim account yesterday trying averaging down). I need to get comfortable trading my way and then introduce averaging down, whittling down...
I agree 100%. We each must forge our own way. We can learn from others but we have pave our own road.
Column A shows the theoretical number of trades for each bracket setting. In these 3 cases (3 brackets) the first and last bracket, results were calculated on 10 round trips each. The second bracket was calculated on 20 round trips to illustrate the power of frequency of trades. Column B shows broker and exchange expense for 10 or 20 trades. Column C shows $ gained amount if the trade results in a win. Column D shows how many NQ points each trade attemps to target per trade if the target is hit. Column E shows the bracket settings in ticks. Reward - Risk. Column F shows the $ loss amount if the trade results in the stop being hit. Column G shows the $ amount net profit after expense for 20 trades with a 35% Win Rate with bracket 55 - 20. Column J shows the $ amount net profit for the specified number of trades for each of the 3 brackets with a 50% Win Rate. Column L shows the $ amount net profit for the specified number of trades for 2 of the brackets with a 60% Win Rate. Of course Column M shows the Reward to Risk ratio. This is just food for thought. Some traders can make a 15 or 20 tick stop work and i have a strategy I'm working on that if successful, should allow me to. But right now i need at least a 35 tick stop. Smarter guys than me (read Volpri here) rightfully use a dynamic stop that changes with the action. I can see that a dynamic stop is better, but thus far i have to keep things simple. Maybe this table can help you visulize some general possibilities