I can tell you that based on my TEN YEARS of real money trading, you are talking out of your ass. I have a real money journal on this site. Look for it, and read it.
You forgot. You told me to read it once upon a time and I did. I admired your persistence. Ten years is a long time, I know because I have been trading options full time, with real money, since 2013 and know how hard it is to be consistently profitable for 10 years. Happy new year, sir.
Volpri - you probably covered it and i didn't catch it, but when trading NQ, please say what the average stop loss you recommend?
@SimpleMeLike, I don't think you need any help. But, just in case you want to try something for fun, try @volpri's approach for a change. Who knows you may like it. Best wishes to you.
Ironchef - i tried 1:1 and i couldn't make it work well enough to please me, but i will show you what can work. Volpri sharing what he has is the one who got me started trading futures and he is way way smarter then me (I've a lot to learn) but not one size fits all. If you search the forum for SteveH comments on risk he has some great comments on Win Rates in the 30% to 60% range. SteveH often uses a 15 tick stop and i thought surely i could make do with a 20 tick stop. Sometimes i could but not often. Currently i use a 35 tick stop and today had a 64% win rate on 14 trades. My win rate is usually lower on this bracket. I test a lot of variations, maybe too many, but that's where i am now. I had some good winning days with that 15 to 20 tick stop and a 35% win rate, but wasn't consistent enough. I have a lot of these NQ bracket tables like shown below. Currently these fit me best. Your mileage may vary. https://gyazo.com/f83c37c44d1781110642c5a15924b376
Thank you @birdman, I am not doing R:R of 1:1, rather, < 1:1 and able to get positive expectancy from scalping. With 1:1, I was getting win rate of slightly > 50%. If I forced a R:R of > 1:1, my win rate was < 50%. Sounds like you are also getting good results using @volpri's approach. That makes two of us. If we add @SimpleMeLike there are now 3. @HawaiianIceberg, how are you doing?
@SML Here is an example of a combination of averaging down and whittling down. I am out of town so I could not make a video but I took screen shots (a series in chronological order) of some trades taken this morning. You can see the entries and the exits and SLs placement. Typically, I will start out with an entry. If it goes against me I will average down. Then if the average down positions continues against me I will swap to whittling down the paper loss on the average down position. There are times I will average down TWICE or rarely 3 times before resorting to whittling down. Sometimes just once. When whittling down it is important to use stop entry orders 1 or 2 ticks above the previous bar (for long entries) for long entries and 1 or 2 ticks below the low of the previous bar for short whittling down entries. I want the market moving in my direction to whittle down. In the first screen shot I entered long 1 contract then average down (martingale) with two more. When that went against me began the whittling down process by going long 2 contracts at a lick moving entries to 1 or 2 ticks above the previous bars high until I got filled. I left the exit a 3 points on each 2 contract whittling down entry. Two points even 1 point is still whittling down but I just left it (the profit target) at 3 points on each whittling down trade. I did three times until price probed back up enough to get me out with a profit on the average down position and finally on the initial entry. To whittle down it is necessary that the larger context supports it. The screen shot #9 shows the larger context was a bullish trend and that would support whittling down long. For averaging down the smaller context should support doing that and better if the larger contexts support averaging down. The difference between them is that on averaging down I want in and out quickly. Typically, I will give it an initial entry, and one or two averaging down entries ) on rare occasions a three averaging down entries before resorting to whittling down. This time I used two contracts for each whittling down entry. Sometimes I may use more like 3 or 4 contracts but much depends on price dynamics. I don't use set hard SL. My stop losses are typically wide and are dynamic and based on PA. That is, they are price action SLs. Typically, below or above some swing low or swing high. I want them far enough away to give the trade room to work out in my favor but close enough that things won't become a disaster should I have to let them play out. I think the charts are self explanatory in terms of explaining both the processes. Keep in mind I would have gotten out quickly on those very first two entries on the chart (the initial and the averaging down entry) but since that didn't work out I went to whittling down based on the larger context up to that point and the immediate context. Screen shot #8 shows all the trades and their exits. The first entry and the averaged down entry and their eventual exits at the end and the 3 whittling down entries and exits taken before initial and average down entries. It was 26 points captured from 11:08 to 12:26 in the ES and all winners. Five trades. Or four if I count the first two combined as one which I typically do. These trades were done a SIM. Nevertheless, they show the process.
Unfortunately one day or the other this kind of trading will cause a massive loss, it's unavoidable. There will be a day that it all goes wrong and when you keep adding, and more importantly keep increasing the size, it will go wrong sooner or later. Of course he can prove me wrong with his demo track record, but I am guessing that isn't going to happen.