Good Morning Volpri, Thank you for the write up and explanation on how you trade. What does FOT mean?
Good Afternoon Volpri, Thank you. Questions Please: 1. What can I do to stop NQ from pulling my pants down, oiling me up, and going for a Tom Brady deep ball Touchdown in me with false breakouts? I keep getting nailed with false breakouts. Green dot - went long, average into losing trade, tied up and oiled up, loss. Red dot - went short, average into losing trade, tied up and oiled up, loss. Thank you for the help. Thank you,
First sell you diagnosed correctly. Second sell was same thing. Sold a wedge top and worse even yet in the top 1/4 of a trading range. The third you sold a wedge bottom (drawn in different ways) also at the bottom of a TR. If anything, you should have been going long on a Stop buy order above a bull bar or if aggressive a straight buy right where you sold. Now that you know this refrain from repeating it. Even so sometimes the unexpected will happen. If it does, what do you do? For instance, suppose in the first trade after that wedge top and the next bear bar that completely retraced the previous wedge top bull bar and was also an outside bar, what would you do if the next bar blasted above that outside bear bar? Which it did not (as it was a much smaller bull doji bar) but suppose it had done so. Suppose you shorted at your second long entry and price kept going up through the TR top. What would you do? Suppose at your third short at the bottom (the expected move would be north because it is a wedge bottom at bottom of a TR) it went down in your short direction and kept going down what would you do? What is the % of BO attempts that fail? Knowing this what should you do until the unexpected happens and a BO is successful.
Here @SML is a short replay video explaining how I would have traded your first two trades. I stopped before your third trade. You diagnosed the errors of your 1st and 3rd trade correctly above in your post #2255. I mis-spoke about this in my video #2256. I meant to say you diagnosed your errors not that your trades were correct. The second trade you didn't say what you did wrong. I explain that in my post #2256. You ACTUALLY went long in that second trade. I meant to say in my post #2256 that you went long but I said you went short. Short would have been correct action but you went long instead so I wanted to clear that up as I mis-spoke. In summary both of those first two trades SHOULD have been shorts not longs. That was your error on each of those trades. My brain is getting tired and my fingers loose so I typed wrong things. Now here is a video on a SIM showing your first two trades and how I would have traded them had I done so. It is a replay, but I think it might be instructive about how I think in these sorts of situations.
Here are some trades in the micro NQ (MNQ) I captured 107.25 points from 8:56 to 10:40. I count a trade with no averaging in as 1 trade after entry and exit. If it is an averaged to down trade, I count the initial and succeeding entries and the exits as ONE Trade. If I started off with averaging down and the technique did not work and midstream I swap to the "whitling" technique, then I count each individual trades entry and exit as one trade. For example, from bar 9:54 to 10:40 I count each entry and exit as 1 trade so there are 6 entries and 6 exits during that time period. So altogether I count 14 trades this morning. All winners but we could say 2 were basically BE as the only made about 1 or 2 ticks profit each one. I made three mistakes, and I explain those in the video. It is a bit of a long video but here it is if you wish to watch it.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL! When we consider all things including the things we don't particularly like or are not too happy to have been through we STILL have a lot to be thankful for. There is always someone, somewhere, who carry burdens greater than ours. So let us be thankful and remember that life is a journey that sooner than we would like the journey ends on earth, at some point. Make sure we are headed in the right direction for the final destination and ALWAYS be thankful for the opportunity to have lived, to have loved, and to have been loved. Be thankful!