Techniques for Day Trading the ES, NQ, YM, MES, MNQ, and MYM

SimpleMeLike · Nov 24, 2024

volpri said:
Again, a scalper HAS TO MAINTAIN A HIGH WIN RATE. There is no other route for him.
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Good Morning volpri,

Thank you for the response.

Questions Please:

1. Per the illustration below, what should the High Win Rate Scalper do on the one trade and one day, when he/she takes a loss after averaging and the trade just goes the other way for a loss?

2. Have this ever happened to you? Do you know any other High Win Rate Scalper did this happen to? If so, how did you , he/she recover?

Thank you,

SimpleMeLike · Nov 24, 2024

volpri said:
3. Why do you not enter with 1 contract and exit at 1 fixed stop loss or exit at 1 fixed profit target for ALL your trades? Please elaborate on this question as much as you can. Sometimes I use a fixed PT in certain scenarios. Like on Friday's videos that second video has a fixed PT of 6 points (even though at times I call it ticks on the video by mistake LOL) To just have a SL of 1 point and a PT of 1 point is not really very congruent with how the market works. The market on EVERY bar is probing and on every group of bars is probing. There are bears and bulls active on every bar and every group of bars. How active and with what strength show up as the bars print and the context in which they are printing. Are the bars bigger range bars? Closing on high? Are there gaps between a bar Closing on low? Are there gaps between the close of a bar and the high of 2 bars back and other types of gaps that indicate urgency? Doji? Are they getting smaller in size? Bigger in size? Are there consecutive bull bars or consecutive bear bars? Are bull bars bigger than bear bars. In a group of bars are there more bull bars or more bear bars? What is the size of the probing up or down.

Finally, setting a 1-point SL and 1 point PT is a dead-end alley. It is bleeding to death with a thousand paper cuts. Tight stops will not work for scalping. With tight SLs it becomes a guessing game. SLs have to be "price action" based stops if one is going to trade PA. For a scalper that usually means upside down on R:R on initial entries but however, by the time the trade is said and done very often the actual SL (adverse movement plus 1 tick) is often less that the PT gained on the exit and often renders a great R:R It is impossible to know if the market will tick up or down on a bar 1 point. One would be guessing and hoping it goes 1 point in one's favor before it goes 1 point against one's position. In such a tight scenario there is no premise to gauge one's entry and exit on. Price is constantly moving up and down by 1 point on most every bar.
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Hello volpri,

Thank you for explaining. I appreciate your response. I respect your response.

SimpleMeLike · Nov 24, 2024

volpri said:
4a. How long did take you to recover that largest loss? I usually try to get back a loss immediately on my next entry. Sometimes it may take more than one entry to do so. Look at Friday's second video. My first three entries on the move down were in draw down. What did I do? I didn't go short and exit those with a lose. Instead I changed tactics and began to take a series of long trades one after the other and keep those three long. I did this even as the market continued against me. So, how did I manage to end up winning on all the trades in the video? By locking in a 6 point LONG profit on each succeeding trade as the market continued down. Then it turn back up and I kept up that action until it reach above those 3 higher up entries and I got out with a profit on those. Yes, I was in draw down but I was betting that the market would only go so far down then because bulls and bears were both active it would eventually turn back up. It coud have gone down..down..down.. but sooner or later somebody has to buy...buy..buy. So, I whittled away at 6 point long profits until it probed back up enough to get me out of those three trades with the biggest drawdown at a profit. I reasoned it would probe down to support, and I indicated that on the video and hsowed the likely supoort area. I also reasoned that because of probing back and forth on each bar that I could continue to get a series of 6 points gains easily enough. So, I am picking up breadcrumbs as fast as I can when when the big probe came I had me a loaf of bread in my hands by the time I got out of those three trades. Watch that video again if you did indeed watch it the first time. I mis-spoke several times calling 6 points 6 ticks and also called adding on another trade but the strategy I was using was NOT averaging down but instead taking many subsequent trades picking up crumbs until the bigger move (probe) back up got me a profit on all positions.

Now what would an unexperienced trader have done? He likely would see that move down emerging and said "OH my the pain is too much I got to get out" and he would take the loss only to find that a few bars later had he held he would have made a profit. He would have panicked on that move down.

Instead, I used a strategy betting on small probes (capturing at least 6 points each time) until a bigger probe back up would get me out with a profit on those earlier entries. I WAS BETTING ON THE PROBES.

Another strategy that is too is also feasible is to just exit those first 3 contracts with a loss (since I find myself on the wrong side of the market) reverse double or triple up short and in short order I would get that loss back and likely be back to printing money again. The market shows me its hand and I play that hand using whatever different strategies I hve in my toolbox and which one seems to fit the context as best to use. I react to whatever and however the market is doing whatever it is doing. The goal is to be sync with the market enough to make a profit.

There is no reason to panic. Switch strategies or tactics and get back in sync. This is precisely why it is hard to algo PA. Too many things can happen so fast that to program all the possible scenarios..well you are a programmer (right?) it is extremely difficult to anticipate the variables and account for all them. In my opinion true PA can only be done discretionary. But what do I know I am not a programmer nor am I very smart.
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Hello volpri,

Thank you for the response. Very well written, I respect your switching of the strategies in your tool box per the price action in the current real time price behavior.

SimpleMeLike · Nov 24, 2024

volpri said:
4b. Was the largest loss due to a mistake or per your trading plan? I don't have a trading plan. I let the market create my plan each day. I am a discretionary trading and I respond to it as it is printing the PA. I look to capitalize on patterns and the market cycle and the constant probings that are there in the patterns and market cycle. I don't remember my largest loss. I don't track such stuff. I can say it was never big enough to make me want to jump out of a sky scraper. Since learning and trading price action I have never ever blown a real account that I can remember. This is primarily because I practice over and over most every week on a SIM before I put real money to the test. I see practice as the only way to keep my skills honed and sharp. Can you image Tom Brady never practicing football and just going into a real game with no practice? Why would I want to take on trading with real money and not practice till I was confident?

Now back in yesteryear many moons ago back when stocks traded in fractions, and I didn't know a hill of beans about PA trading I may have suffered some bigger losses and may have even blown an account. I just don't remember. But my accounts at any rate were small and I remember no loss causing me an enormous amount of grief or pain. What has caused me some grief is learning how to trade price action on a SIM. If you want to discuss SIM then yes I have had some big draw downs in the thousands of dollars but even then do not remember ever blowing a SIM account. But when I was developing strategies and tactics for PA and learning how to trade PA by practicing it there were many times, I felt like just throwing the towel in and giving up.

4c. What exactly did you do to recover this largest loss (account drawdown)? I have strategies to deal with draw downs. Like that video Friday. That was one. Another is reversing and doubling down or tripling down when I realize I am out of sync with PA. Any loss I usually try to get back quickly in minutes as I don't want to wait the rest of the session trying to get back a loss. Or if the loss is big enough or consecutive losses I may just call it a day quit trading and go do something else. Tomorrow will come again until it doesn't.

4d. How many contracts were you holding when you talk the loss? I never track that and I don't remember. I take too many trades during the day to track that sort of stuff and it never interest me anyway except to influence my next immediate size to get back my loss. The best I can reply to that is took a loss on say 5 contracts because I mis-judged PA or some other reason then I may double that and reverse (10 contracts) or triple up (15 contracts)

4e. If you remember the day and trade of the largest loss, can you please post it. Never ever track that. I prefer to never remember any big losses but just long enough to learn from them. I am like a soldier on the front lines in a battle. I cannot and do not remember over detail of my advance ) direction (zig zagiing..straight..jack rabbit darting..and speed..etc) towards the enemy.My only goal is to get to them enemy and eliminate the threat. And win the battle!

Well, I must say SML I felt like I was being investigated with all these questions but there you go. There are my answers. I now pat myself on the back for taking the time to provide the answers or not provide them. I guess it depends on how you receive my answers is they answered your questions or not. Are you on some sort of a mission here with all these questions? Have a good day!
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Hello volpri,

Very well written and thank you for asking all my questions. Thank you. I respect how you trade. It does makes very good sense.

SimpleMeLike · Nov 24, 2024

volpri said:
Well, I must say SML I felt like I was being investigated with all these questions but there you go. There are my answers. I now pat myself on the back for taking the time to provide the answers or not provide them. I guess it depends on how you receive my answers is they answered your questions or not. Are you on some sort of a mission here with all these questions? Have a good day!
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Hello volpri,

Thank you for the response.

Lol, I have only have one mission my friend, make +$5 million as quickly as humanly can trading the ES futures market within 1-3 years.

I just like asking you questions, to gain a better understand of what is going on in your head as you stare and click the charts.

Very good conversation.

SimpleMeLike · Nov 24, 2024

volpri said:
Well I have scalped for 1 point. Or two points. If I was scalping on a 2m or 1m chart I would use 2 points IF the average size bar was around of 4 points tall (a scalp 1/2 size of the average bar..just a visual glance). That is, I would scalp with a fixed PT of 2 points on very short TF charts. However, I would not put my SL at 1 or 2 points. That is a losing strategy for scalping. IMO. A thousand paper cuts! I believe that I have to have and maintain a high win rate as a scalper and I simply cannot do that using tight SLs. The trade doesn't have enough room to work out in a positive outcome for me even when scalping 1 or 2 points
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Thank you Volpri for the time and effort in respond to me.

SimpleMeLike · Nov 24, 2024

volpri said:
Failed to mention that the post above all the trades #2208 pulled a little 100 points from the MNQ (micro NQ) in about roughly 45 minutes.

This post here with the two following two videos pulled over 90 points after the earlier post and in around 36 minutes.

Take note these trades are on the same 2m chart of the MNQ above with a 10 period ema on the chart.

Glad to hear there exist a little interest in how this is done live. It ended up I had a little time on hand so I continued with the same chart but recording doing this as the market was moving.

I misspoke sometimes as my brain is getting old and it instructed my mouth to sometimes say 6 ticks when I meant 6 points. You will figure it out. Like on the first profit in the first trade on the first video below. Just know that this method is locking in on 6 points at a time, normally. However, IF I see it approaching my profit target (PT) on momentum I will sometimes slide the PT up or down (depending on if the trade is short or long) and capture more than 6 points.

Also, on days where there is a lot of volatility then both initial SL and PT can be widened. The secret is I visually glance at an average bar size that is taking place in the session. Then set I the profit target in points to 1/2 the size of the average bar. In this case early on in the session I just visually estimated the average bar to be about 48 ticks. So, I set the PT target at 24 ticks i.e. 6 points. That averaged bar size might have increased some but I just left the PT at 6 points. If the increase was dramatic and continuous I could change it to a bigger PT. Instead, what I did was leave it at 6 points and if momentum was forthcoming, I did go for a bigger PT by moving my exit price to lock in a little more. There again, that drives home the point that WHAT price does in terms of its reach in important but what is just as important is HOW it reaches that point.

Will there be losing days. Of course. But not every trade will be a loser. That would be very rare. Maybe in a crash.

This method requires wide stop losses and usually averaging down is involved but not on every trade. The secret is small PT and SMALL size and using the same size each time on each scale in. This helps to mitigate risk. It capitalizes on the market probing all session long on EVERY single bar.

This method can be also used in conjunction with the larger context, for example looking to short at the top of TRs and going long at the bottom of TRs... playing off the EMA. Playing off patterns such as flags, pennants, triangles, trends (micro and larger), channels micro and larger), BOs..spikes...etc. While trading this technique I like to look to the left and "see" the larger context and how the immediate price moves and its present and immediate bars fit into that larger setting. That complicates things a bit unless a trader understands all this stuff and has trained their mind to be cognizant of the patterns to the left.

If I don't want to be looking at the larger context I can trade it just on the probes and momentum of the market in the immediate context of price movement but even that takes a while to instinctively be able to learn how to do it and to do it well.

I know! I can hear it now. It is stupid to pay so much on commissions. Better to go for bigger moves. Well, if that works for you GOOD! Do whatever floats your boat. I like scalping and don't mind the brokers getting a bit. They gotta eat too and not just bologna! ROFLMAO

This type of trading I think could possibly be programmed. There are very few PA methods that can be programmed successfully, in my opinion. But this is one I THINK MIGHT could be. I don't know for sure as I am not a programmer. But if any of you young bucks who are smart and know how to program and want to try your hand at it and test this out with auto trading on an algo then have at it. I don't care. But it would be nice to share a copy with me as I am getting old and fossilized and my brain thinks slower and I make mistakes. You will hear some mistakes in the video! LOL. But if no one is game to try it via creating an algo then try it live on a SIM. Maybe just maybe you can get real good at it on a SIM!

Just remember, you can lose money trading futures and stocks and I am not telling anyone to trade this way. This is for entertainment..and for some possible info you may not be aware of, and for fun. What you do with the info is on you. I am not advising you to do anything.

Pardon my speech is slow, my accent is southern, and my brains operates at a very slow speed limit! But at least it is still operating.

I don't know if it got recorded or not but if you hear some hollering on the video it was my wife calling as she was bent over doing something at the cabinet in the kitchen and straightened up and had a dizzy spell and was hollering for me. LOL. She is ok. Just the sudden movement. It is a pain getting old. I don't like it one bit. Enjoy your youth!

That is all charts and videos I plan on posting today.

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Hello volpri,

I certainly appreciate your effort and time and good-will in creating these videos. Thank you.

Regarding Swinging (bigger profit targets) versus Scalping (smaller profit targets): My opinion is, I honestly do not know what works better versus one or the other. Whichever provides the most consistently profits over time.

Can this be programmed in an algo? I do not know. I do not believe anyone can program how you trade because its too discretionary and too many what-ifs. Better to trade how you are trading now. It is far more advantage then algo trading!

You can try Semi-Algo Trading to assist you with the manually clicking effort. But even that will take too much time and effort.

volpri · Nov 24, 2024

SimpleMeLike said:
Good Morning volpri,

Thank you for the response.

Questions Please:

1. Per the illustration below, what should the High Win Rate Scalper do on the one trade and one day, when he/she takes a loss after averaging and the trade just goes the other way for a loss?

2. Have this ever happened to you? Do you know any other High Win Rate Scalper did this happen to? If so, how did you , he/she recover?

Thank you,

View attachment 355046
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I would not let an averaged down trade turn into a big loss. If I am wrong I get out, double or triple up and reverse directions. Especially when averaged down. It takes a lot of discipline. "Discipline is doing WHAT needs to be done, WHEN it needs to be done, and HOW it needs to be done regardless of how one feels emotionally, all the while paying attention to detail. TRADING IS A PROCESS THAT REQUIRES EXECUTION.

This technique mentioned above I learned from George Angel in his book Profitable Daytrading with Precision.

The context must be right to consider averaging down. I think my last video explains why I would average down in that larger context. An evolving TR is "happening" So I will take a chance and average down all the way to the emerging bottom of that TR behavior. I was willing to take the risk on and double up my two contract already averaged down losing position. I was willing to bet on a probe back up BECAUSE of the TR behavior up to that point even though there were not quite 20 bars in that evolving TR. Had it kept going down on me I would be sure to quickly jettison all 6 contracts reverse maybe with 6 more or even 12 more and get my loss back very quickly.

volpri · Nov 24, 2024

SimpleMeLike said:
Thank you Volpri for the time and effort in respond to me.
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You are welcome. You are programmer are you not? why don't you attempt to program the concepts expressed in Friday's second video basing on techniques in that video. Say on a 2 minute chart scalping over and over 1/2 of the average range bar for the fixed points to be captured. Then Program that up for sideways..up..and down trends GOING LONG ONLY. Then program it going short ONLY in up and down moves. Then program it reversing directions on the fly. That is Going short in bear trends as long as it is a bear trend then reversing and going long when it becomes a rally. And going both short and long when bars are in a little sideways move like that second video started off with.

Watch all those videos. I believe there are things to be learned in each one of them. But of course I created them so naturally........LOL

I do not have programming skills and am likely too old to learn them. I did try learning Visual Basic years ago, but it just isn't my cup of tea. I never could learn to talk the way a programmer has to talk computer language. And I was never good at math. Ever. I was more interested in girls in school and shooting spit balls through a straw at their heads while in class while feigning like I didn't know who done went and done that!

I am not very smart but I do have some experiences in life. I like science..biology..history but math I guess I have found ways to live without understanding math.

SimpleMeLike · Nov 24, 2024

volpri said:
I showed the technique in the last few videos with very small size assuming a small account. That doesn't have to be so. Any size can be traded. I showed it on MNQ trading 1c but one could chose to trade 20 ES contracts and each scale in (I meant to say each add on trade) an additional 20 contracts with no averaging down, doubling up or tripling up. The size depends on one's tolerance for risk and one's account size. I simply showed it on the smallest size in MNQ one could trade.

I watched the videos again. I want to clarify something I said near the end of the second video. I said, "no averaging down." I know it looks like it is averaging down but I do not consider it as averaging down.

In the first video when I say "I will add another contract" what I really mean in this method is I will enter a "new" trade and exit that trade with 6 points while I await the probing to eventually go back up to any previous positions that are still losing and I capture 6 points from them. At least that is the goal. So, when I refer to add on or scale in that is really not what I mean. I am so used to averaging down (and doing so with intent) that my brain defaulted to that lingo and my mouth obeyed!

Just look at it as a SERIES of Indvidual trades trying to scalp at least 6 points on each trade as the market moves sideways, down, or up. This is a way to trade on most every bar. With averaging down that is not so. The context has to support averaging down. And it will certainly be fewer times than this and not on every bar.

The method is a methodical way of capturing small profits on many bars (even the same bar multiple times or on consecutive bars) Most bars can render this type of trading regardless of the overall direction of the market if they, on average, are big even to render the PT of 1/2 the average size bar. ON MNQ trying to capture less than 6 points on each trade is generally not worth the effort when using this to trade 1c each time. If the average size bar is to small that 1/2 of its range is less than 6 points in the MNQ (or NQ) I probably would not use this method.

Those PTs in MES, if trading MES, would be different in terms of points. It would still be 1/2 the size of the average bar but points likely wouldn't be six points unless the average bar indicates that is a probable scenario.

Just thought I used clarify as I did not use the best lingo in the recorded video, and I do not want to confuse people over what I was aiming to do in this method.

So, see this method as EACH trade being an independent trade focused on capturing 6 points in this example. The intent is not averaging down nor doubling up nor tripling up. It is simply taking series of trades independently while holding others previous taken until they themselves render 6 points as the market heads back up because of market CONSTANT probing on EVERY bar. On smaller TFs that probing back and forth on one bar on a larger TF bar is actually usually a series of multi-bar probes on smaller TFs.
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Hello Volpri,

Thank you for the explanation.

Just to confirm I understand you:

1. You trade each 5 minute bar, some times you take trades while the bar is forming and not at bar close ?

2. You are aiming at 6 points on NQ (24 ticks), betting on price will probe back and forward (bears and bulls going and up and down), and taking these scalps and price moves back and forward as the 5 minute bar is forming?

3. When you add on or average in, you are not adding at a fixed tick distance, you are treating each add on as an independent reason per the PA to add on, correct? For example, by default, you are not adding on every 10 ticks away from the previous add on, correct?

Thank you,