Suggest you use the ET archive feature on his account page -- there are numerous examples in the past few months -- and years. If you're not persuaded by that, and by what's already appeared here, well .... // How To: Right click on the account name in a post, that brings up member info; Hit the "Posts" tab; there, at page bottom, select "Find all content by volpri"
I don’t have much time today but want to make a quick comment on the importance of identifying the phase the cycle is in as that affects whatever tactics I use for trading. Sometimes that identification is crystal clear. Other times, like today, it can be harder. Here is a chart of the NQ. Some basic concepts are embedded therein. Will try to elaborate tonight. I am up $610.00 on the NQ today. Anyway, look at this. NQ 5 min chart 10-17-2019
Yes that is a bear channel. I would say top of channel is 7990 and resistance where I see possible bottom and support around 7920. So once one sees that price is in the channel, they have a chance before support to go short. Is your purple line an EMA? And if so what value do you use. If one just uses PA like Brooks, you don't even need to draw channel lines. To keep it simple, you could just say price is falling at a 45 degree angle where price is respecting the angle. Therefore, allowing one to make the trade close to the angle before price hits support.
All true. 7790 is the top of the channel and can be seen in hindsight to be so but while it is happening live is more difficult to identify. 7990 could just be a pb starting (flag) and a possible resumption of the bull trend from the open. Trading live, at least for myself, the bear channel is not obvious until PA breaks below the low of the session on A BO goes through THE EMA (preferably), and begins closing the opening gap. I then see it as an ORBO and bearish. I am content to not trade until I see it come back up to test the ema and resume down. That PB I marked I consider to be the start of the channel because everything above that could just be push and shove by both sides. By the time that ORBO occurred it was clear price was bearish. If that opening gap was gonna indicate price going on up then it probably would have done so shortly after 7990. See prior to the ORBO you got overlapping bars..race up race..down...bull bar..bear bar..every couple of bars or so. All this is range action (bears and bulls both pushing) but not enough bars to yet be considered a viable range. Price prior to the ORBO was forming a triangle pattern which is BO mode and A 50% chance it can BO in either direction. Normally. In this case 60% Odds favor a BO north because of the opening gap. But it does the unexpected and the BO is south and price starts filling the opening gap. That, for me, means look for a measured move down with two legs minimum. The purple is 20 EMA and the gray a 50 SMA. One line is enough if one isn’t gonna scalp long at the bottom of the channel. This channel is broad enough to scalp both ways but the safer bet is obviously short scalping because of the steepness of the channel. But I am trying to drill in the importance of the phases of the cycle for new traders so I draw the channel in.
Your triangle marked "B O Mode" -one sees that form live on many occasions and is a very useful set up to prepare to trade.
In the olden days it was called a coil. Ready to spring out either way. Context often determines which way. If it does the opposite and breaks out contrary to context then it is almost a sure measured move in the BO direction. Not 100% but high odds of a MM.
NQ 5 min chart 10-17-2019 I want to focus on the cycle. Remember, Range to BO to Channel back to range. Each phase requires different tactics. If I want a high win rate. If win rate doesn’t matter then a trader can just pull out his tactic with one bullet in it and fire away in any direction like Barney. LOL
Channel forms in an unexpected direction. Look for at least a measured move down. Different ways to measure it. Depends on ones’s entry. Just follow the different colored lines. You will get the concepts.