Aloha Trader, I went long here based on it looking like a TR. Looking back at is as a SPBR trend, short was the answer. Getting stuck in my bias got me. Happens too often..
yes and from about bar 11:45 that tight channel down started. In this case in a tight bear channel I don’t think long trades have the best possibility for being good trades. It is too tight for going long. I mean a trader could go long but it is probable it would keep going down making it easier to take short trades. Yes, it too was a spbr trend. Context is important also when looking a where price is at and what it may do next even when in a TR. Clues indicating your long bar may not be such a good entry. 1) More bear bars from open to your long entry bar. 2) Already mentioned a tight bear trading channel 3) As you said it was a spbr. Every rally sold. bulls could barely get it up to the ema then the rally collapses. 4) More series of consecutive bear bars as opposed to consecutive bull bars. All these things indicate bearish pressure.
For those of you interested here is a trade I took this morning in the ES 5m chart averaging down. It ended up as an 8-point winner even though my initial entry lost 1.5 points. This would not have happened had I not averaged down. Actually, I doubled down. This is why if the context is correct for doing I can do well as a scalper averaging down. The following short video is a clip explaining this trade and my reasons for scaling in when price moved against me.
Here is a short video clip of a 2nd trade where I made some mistakes and on a 3rd trade how I corrected and got back my loss and ended session up 17.75 points in the ES. Trades were taken on a 5m chart. I think things are pretty well explained. I have to go with PA and be ready to do what I have to do when I am wrong on the direction. That is all part and parcel with trading. I am done for the session. Have other things to do while in Arkansas.
No trading today. Spent entire day digging for diamonds at Diamond Crater State Park at Murfreesboro Arkansas. DIDN'T find but the experience was good!
You are digging for diamonds every time you open up your ES chart and start trading. Much easier for you.
My son and his wife wanted to stop there as we continue towards KY. We leave the area tomorrow is the plan. It was good exercise! I did get back to the MotorHome exhausted!
I luuuuuuv going short. But feel that there is no way, in current market conditions, will I look short. Just no reason to. Probabilities are not there no matter what PA seems to show. There just is no sustained selling impetus. Even on micro time levels. Why try to fight it?
In would disagree that there is no reason to short in current market conditions. As a scalper I short in most any market conditions because of the way the market probes and I am shorting for small scalps like I did in the first two trades. When the market breaks out of the reason for why I shorted then I exit and get back in flow with the market and usually will double up or triple help if I had a previous loss. Here is what happened after I exited that last trade...long trade...getting back all my losses and ending the session with +17.75 pts in the ES. I was done trading, so I didn't trade any more that session but see the probing back down towards the range two bars after I exited? That probe continued down to the middle of the trading range. Then a PB and a second trade all the way to the bottom of the TR. That was followed by another probe back up to the top of the TR before the RTHs close. These probes are why I will play both sides long and short.