I managed to take a trade this morning. Will be on road shortly if my son and his wife crawl their carcasses out of bed in their RV next to ours. This trade is what is called a sell the close trade. 5m RTHs bar opens and plunges down. Closes low. Indicates a continuation at least for a decent scalp. So, I short near bottom of that opening bar then added another contract when it moved in my favor on an intra-bar PB. That is called pressing the trade. Then jumped out on another move down a little as I saw a little buying coming in tails on bottom of subsequent bars and smaller bars. Remember the market cycle. BO...Channel..TR This trade captured 19.50 points
Will likely morph into a TR sideways moves. 70% chance. That means 30% it won't. In such a case channel c0ntinues down or a BO out of bottom of channel then a good chance of a MM down from top of channel to bottom (point of BO) extended same distance south. But only time will tell. I trade whatever happens. As of now the expected is to see a TR form ...70% chance. If it doesn't then the unexpected has happened and when the unexpected happens (30%) then it is likely to be able to see a MM down.
Stopped at a rest area and checked just to see what happened. It di go into a TR (70% chance like I mentioned earlier). Notice legs and numbers of bars. Qualifies for TR techniques. At least 20 bars sideways and preferably three legs. So, I would be using TR techniques until a BO top or bottom happens. Bear channel is like a bull flag on another TF so BO odds slightly favor a BO out of the top of the channel however, it can happen in any direction after 20 bars of sideways move in a TR. Usually, it becomes 50/50 either direction. In this case I would label it 55% chance BO of TR will be out of the top and 45% it will be out of the bottom. Got run. Time to hit the road again.
I was in Arkansas at a rest area. Now I am at a rest area in Oklahoma eating a late lunch. On the way to FT Sill in Lawton OK to watch my granddaughter graduate from basic training. Ok here is what happened between rest areas.
Aloha @volpri In your TR example above, if you went short at the top of the range around 13:00, when would you pull the plug on the trade and exit? Hope you travel goes well. mahalo
For about 10 years...Honduras. My residency just expired this year in Honduras and I have not yet renewed it. Also 12 to 13 years Mexico. 3 years or so in Belize. My daughter was born in Honduras and she passed from cancer in in the USA at 34 years of age. I sure miss her. It is her daughter that is graduating from Ft Sill in Oklahoma.
Here an averaged down trade I took today this afternoon. We made it in late last might to the RV park. Slept in late. Went short in top 1/3 of and established TR. Added two contracts short when it moved against my position. Then exited all in two exits. Points captured was 12 points between 12:45 and 1:25. Points can be captured in what many call noise. Notice Market cycle. Notice I started shorting as the third leg was evolving in the TR.