Silly me. Should have known. Sleeping in is the best way to avoid being on the wrong side of a trade. Well done! I’ll make note of it.
After I crawled my carcass out of bed and got a cup or two of coffee down my gullet I checked the markets out and started trading right away today 10-15-2019. Went long 1 ES right away then exited shortly thereafter with over 100 profit. The started averaging down long two contracts at a wack. Reasoning: Any reversal attempt will probably fail as the strength from the open was rapid 16 bars all bull bars except for two bear bars. Gap up open too. Bars increasing in size. Three different series or sequences of bull bars. Bears can’t get two or more bear bars together. Bulls are strong. Price staying well above both MA’s. While it may slow up it is unlikely that any reversal attempt will succeed. Any reversal attempt probably just be: 1) a bull flag with continuation of the trend 2) go sideways range action 3) morph into a small PB bull trend In either scenario averaging down can be a viable play in this kind of PA. Because of the previous strength since the open. However, any stop loss needs to be wide as there can be a deep pb especially if price morphs into a range. If you look at this on a 30 min chart or 1 hour chart it is a spike. The most logical PA Stop Loss is just below that second tiny Pb in the move up. However, since I am averaging down I don’t want to take on that much risk so I placed the stop loss just below 2992. That should be ok, especially if it morphs into a SPBL (small PB bull trend) as that will PUT the SL in the vicinity of price touching the 20 EMA. A good place for price to resume back up even it it just grinds up the rest of the session. If PB goes deeper then I have to decide to either adjust SL to the more logical area described above or exit my averaged down position with a loss. Will post another chart showing what actually happened and my exit on the 12 contracts of trade #2.
It ended up morphing into a SPBL for much of the rest of the session. There are several ways to trade SPBL trends. This is one way. When the context favors doing so then I average down and once I accumulate my position size I hold as the market continues to creep up. The general idea is try and make a profit on all entries made while accumulating the averaged down position. It doesn’t always work out. Sometimes I may lose on the first or second contract entries and make money on the rest. But even then I can make some pretty good money. But if the SPBL trend lasts for a few hours like here then I often can make money on every averaged down entry by usually getting out with no losses as price grinds up in my direction. Gross Profit $2,612.50
My bias for ES is up. We had a good up day today for ES and now we have some profit taking. As you can see we broke out of the downward channel, and then hit a HH. On a pullback from the HH, we get some support where no full candle violated the support. So now we can therefore do as seen a trade setup to go long to target a little above minor resistance but before the top of the HH and with the stop below support.
Hello Volpri, now I have 2 watches but I don't know what time it is. Gnome says that to make money the best thing is swingtrading. I do not doubt his method but now I am confused. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/25-years-100-million-profits-a-to-your-qs-today-only.113113/
I have tried its method but it gives me contradictory signals, I have lost money in 1 minute can be bullish, 5 minutes bearish, 15 minutes bullish, 30 minutes bearish, 60 minutes bullish ..... I'm starting to doubt The only solution I think is to stay in a temporality, if you operate in 5 minutes, stay in 5 minutes because if you start looking at other temporalities then you do not know what the true trend is, this is not so easy.
A one-hour candle can change from red to green or from green to red 8 times before turning in one direction, so how can it be operated like this? I don't see it clearly Volpri
When you do intraday, the only thing you do is cut the profits, if a trend lasts 4 weeks, why cut the profit?
Because I believe in locking in profits and I have no idea if the trend will last 4 weeks. I have a better idea if it will lasts 15 minutes.