The big trend is down but all I see is Price made a double bottom, Price breaks out of the range, Price makes higher lows. Your second short was fine (low risk) But your first one was too late / extended. Worst part is taking ur loss that far away from entry. After so many higher lows. I try to sell high in a downtrend and buy low in an uptrend. Good thing is you tried to define the trend / bias. Bad thing is you let the loss out of control, And maybe you sold not high enough. Look at the previous reactions. Get a feel for the volatility. I guess you could have gone short when you actually capitulated. There’s no signal yet of a reversal in my eyes. But at least we had 3 inside baras which might have turned into a reversal.
Hi Volpri - I always enjoy your post and i definitely have learned from your writings. I only trade stocks and ETFs and my knowledge of futures is limited. I think you favor the ES over the other futures mentioned in the title of this post. Please elaborate on why you prefer ES. AI says scalpers generally prefer NQ over ES and I'm curious about your thoughts on the matter https://www.perplexity.ai/search/which-of-ES-3e31OP03RoSZ.3L.1KPFrg
one reason as Mr. Volpri mentioned, trend can stop any time and cause lost. Second is to increase the size and profit. My account risk is 1 contract, so I take profit for 1 contract, re-enter with an increse size to 1.5, 2, 2.5, etc. The increase in size was cover by the previous order profit. So, I can take more profit in compare with just jump in and wait for reversal. Even when I lost the last orders, i still have small profit. That also explain why I can quickly recover the lost of previous day by 50%
Your comment is true. I let my ego and bias over logical thinking. I have chance to quit at even in small PB before break out, however, I still hold on for the hope of continuance. It was deadly mistake for a scalper. When in doubt it is better to keep your capital safe.
I have scalped NQ and YM. I just prefer ES. Not so many wild swings. ES tends to be more mean reverting so better for averaging down. Which I like to do. And since I scalp 1 to 8 points I can grab 50 dollars on each contract on a very small move. If I were in my 20’s I might stick with NQ but I am getting older and don’t think as fast as I used to. This month I turn 69. I understand a lot of scalpers prefer volatility. I don’t that much. ES has less volatile knee jerking moves. And less surprise gaps. Generally more liquidity too at different price levels and more orderly too making it easier for reading PA. More volatility also means wider SLs. Mine are already wide enough! To be a trader that breaks a lot of conventional rules, considering some of them to be myths or erroneous (at least for a scalper), I really am a conservative trader. Nothing wrong with scalping NQ if one prefers it. I have used it in the past as a leading indicator for ES. It tends to be more directional. ES doesn’t trend as much as NQ so better for mean reversion strategies. NQ better for volatility strategies. At least that is how I see it. LOL
I just want to thank you again for the coaching. I reviewed my results since I adopted some of your practices: They changed the way I day trade, for the better. By the way, I day trade individual stocks, not index or futures, what that tells me is the principles are enduring and universal, cutting across different markets, instruments.
From the man himself (pothumously):- https://www.clayburg.com/ddf_home.htm (no affiliation/connection on my part. Also here is a ET topic link from 2002:- https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/directional-day-filter.3691/
Well you are not trading futures, because there are no 0.5 contracts. Nothing wrong with it (trade what you got, CFD's or something else?) but its not the same as futures. Still, gaining 1 full point or 1.5 points, 2 points etc is a good way to not be effective over time as trader. As a sometime trader who doesn't really need the income - Ok. That is not me. It is my job, it pays the bills for me and my significant other. Now and later years when I stop. Plus a few perks along the way. IMO grabbing profits, rather than letting them run, shortchanges most of us. The most, not all, of the 90+% losers do exactly that.