While typing the post above we can now see that a TR has been established on the 5min chart. So, I widen the box to include these 33 bars. We got a multi leg down and at bar 10:50 a leg up starts. This likely marks the end of of down move for a bit and established the 5 min TR especially if one looks to the left and sees price closed the opening gap up snd found support around the close of yesterday. So right now we are in the middle of this 5 min TR. Maybe these posts will answer some of Hawaiianicebergs's questions about how and when I draw TR boxes? They are not always drawn this way but generally are as the market is advancing live. However sometimes I turn the computer on later in the morning and a 5m TR has already been established so I just draw the box. Note I will also "widen" the box if live price action indicates I should. As I just did in this chart. In addition sometimes there are smaller ranges (20 bars or more) within broader ranges. And broader ranges most all have channels within them. In fact the market is always in a channel on some TF. I always will widen channels if price action indicates I need to do so to encapsulate the majority of the PA. Well I got to go. Other things to do. Just thought I would share these things. At the moment we are in the 5 min TR (about a 30 point wide TR) This was small position size trading but the same principles apply if starting with 5 or 10 contracts at a lick.
Aloha volpri, Thank you so much for your response and continued commitment to your journal. I'll take a stab at this one: On the one minute chart, you had left the trading range by 5+ bars. It's also in a slow grinding trend down. The lack of follow through on the large bull bar prior to your entry signals continued downward pressure. As far as a way to correct the mistake sooner.. maybe reversing on the failure (BO south) of that strong bull bar would have been the signal to reverse On the five minute chart, you had pulled back >50% of the opening gap. I believe somewhere in this journal that you mentioned if an opening gap closes by more that 50% it's likely going to test the prior close, however, I could be mistaken as to where I read that..? I'm not quickly finding it in my notes on this thread. One additional comment on the five minute chart. The 9:40 bar was one of the largest of the day, strong, and the largest in that down move. I would expect another attempt down before any reversal would be possible. Even the 9:55 bar doesnt look like quite enough of an attempt down before a reversal/range is possible. Mahalo for giving back volpri! -mark
I can see first trade, still was within range, but once it closed below IMO only thing left to do is exit and wait for next setup. Which, in this case was looking for support to turn into resistance (cyan oval) to go short:-
Just took a quick look and here we have a TR within a TR. I will trade both but just don't have time today. Sometimes we get stair-stepping ranges. A breakout of a range followed immediately by another range outside of the first range. This can happen in sequence even 4 times. That is 4 steps. Sometimes just twice. The entire move today has been basically sideways from open after closing the opening Gap.
Just took another trade 1.5 pts trading the bottom of the TR within a TR. That is it for me today. Got to get back to what I was doing
And here is how the session ended. TR within a TR. Plenty of trading opportunities. I just didn't have the time to dedicate to trading. If I can find time will make some comments later on.
A couple of questions if you don't mind: 1. I noticed your entries were usually at or neat the top of the TR, why? 2. You ever trade within a bar? Thank you. Edit: ignore question #2, I found the answer in subsequent charts.
Good I have been real busy the last couple of weeks on a project. Generally, I will short at top of ranges. And go long at the bottom of established ranges. However, if there is a successful BO i.e. a BO that has follow thru (FT) then I will go long at the top. Same thing for a successful BO south of a range. I will short it. Much depends too on where price is in relation to the 20 period EMA. As concerns trading within a bar. On big bars with a lot of momentum and volatility I will often jump in then out seconds later on a pb within the same bar usually around 50% pb area. Alternately I will dial down to 1 min chart to see what is going on in the 5m chart and make my entries from there.
Thank you sir. Let me provide a roadmap of my approach so any newbie who care to read can try it out: It is completely rhythm base, no TA. My method depends on finding the rhythm of the PA and following that rhythm as closely as possible. That led me to trade buy 1 sell 2 (immediate reversal of every trade when exit). When I caught a good rhythm, it was like printing money. But when I was even slightly out of sync, losses accumulated. End result, big winning day follow by a bunch of losing days. If I have a strong stomach, it is actually a winning method. Next I modified the approach and not trade reversal but chose the next entry based on the current trend. Aggressively cut losses when I was wrong but I still traded every cycle of the rhythm. That led to 3 months of good live trade results, 4 out of 5 days profitable. However as time moved on, to preserve profit, my trades evolved into cutting losses even more aggressively but also took profits earlier and earlier. As a result, near the end of 3 months, I was still profitable 4 out of 5 days but profitability deteriorated. At the end of 2023 I decided to go back to paper + testing out the TOS platform. In 2024, trade duration shorten even more and profit taking got earlier and earlier until the method almost became 1+ tick. Both profitability and win rate went down. The big modification since about a week ago after I read your posts is not to trade continuously but waited for a "good" entry using something similar to your approach. It is profitable but I have to wait a few weeks to see the real results. So far it is all day trade paper/sim, for fun. Take care.