Let me know how it goes with the Pygeum Bark Extract. What helps my prostrate is prostagenix and 35% food grade hydrogen peroxide. I dilute peroxide down to 3% to inhale (11 parts water to 1 part 35% food grade). I also drink it. Drops in 8 ounces of water. Like today I took around 18 drops 6 drops or so 3x day. But I started off with a lot less drops and build up.
I will show a trade I just took a few minutes ago after crawling my carcass out of bed at around 10:30 a.m. The hospital had me hooked up to one of those home sleep studies and the darn straps around my chest and the machine on my chest wouldn't let me sleep well. Any to keep things simple I am showing ONE trade to explain a principle. You hear much ado from the gurus about having a 2:1 or more, Reward to Risk. Or some say Risk to Reward. I prefer the former expression. The problem is most of these gurus and pundits don't factor in probability. R:R is basically useless without probability being part of the equation. A trader will simply find himself in a trade that doesn't quite reach his PT to make the 2:1 or 3:1 R:R so he continues to holds and then Shazzam price suddenly whips back and his profit is gone faster than that bird that was let out of that little boy's hand. Let's look at probability on this trade. Price is in a bear channel and at the bottom. Most (70%) of BO's out of the bottom of a bear channel will fail within 3 to 5 bars and price will head back up into the channel. So the probability was 70% that price would go back up into the channel on a long trade, at least enough for a scalp. We can see a few bars later price did have a success BO of the channel after having been in it a while. That is another reason to only LONG scalp in a bear channel when price is at the bottom. Because sooner or later, a BO will happen that will be successful. Therefore, since this is a bear channel it is best to only scalp (long) when price is at the bottom. If price were at the top one could go short for a swing trade (or 2 legged traded) if the channel is broad enough to do so, because odds favor that price will go back down to the bottom of the channel. Sometimes if the channel is broad enough it IS feasible to swing trade both long and short entries. In this case, I just wanted to scalp long entries. SO PROBABILITY 70%. INITIAL RISK IS 4 POINTS. However, price only went against my multi-contract position 2 ticks after entry before it went my way and hit my scalp PT of 8 ticks, or two points. I ALWAYS figure my R:R off my actual risks not my initial risk. Of course, this cannot be known for sure until the trade is over. But I like to monitor it (ACR), as the trade is ongoing, and will adjust the PT to give me mathematically a trade with at least a RR 1:1. Depending on the dynamics of "how" the trade is playing out. It is a most logical thing to do. I actually only incurred 2 ticks adverse movement before price hit my PT. Rendering me a R:R 4:1. I could have adjusted my PT to 1 point and still made the guru's happy. But the dynamic of price movement (the way it was bouncing up and down) led me to believe I could get 2 points so I made no adjustment on my original PT. Of course price could have gone against my position 4 points and hit my initial SL, but it didn't. The ONLY RISK I ACTUALLY incurred on the trade was 2 ticks. So the trade rendered me a R:R 4:1. This is how you scalp and keep the pundits smiling with a good R:R. LOL
I want to share something about measured moves on a BO o a bear channel but have to go back to hospital right now. Will show it later if I get a chance.
Back again. OK MM's. The first chart is a 30 min chart. The second chart is a 5 min chart. Bear channels on a smaller chart function as bull flags on a larger TF chart. So, understand a bear channel on a smaller TF is a bull flag on a higher TF. Now Bull flags are continuation patterns from a previous bull trend. Usually the BO from a bull flag is bullish. That is, on the smaller 5 min TF the BO of the bear channel (which is a bull flag on 30 min chart) is normally on the north side of the channel and not the south. That is normally what happens. Why because bear channels tend to have there BO's on the north side because they are bull flags on a larger TF! However, as we all know the market can throw curve balls and unexpected things can and do happen. So, when the unexpected or unlikely event happens, then look for a measured move in the direction of the unexpected price move. Look at the second chart which is a 30 min chart. We see the bull flag. That BIG bear 12:00 bar is the unexpected event. On the 5m chart it is the multi-bar successful BO south that began on the bar after my exit on that 5 min chart. I was playing for a long position at the bottom of this bear channel and I went for a 2 point scalp which I got on the next bar. Again, on the next bar after my exit we got the successful BO south out of the bottom of the channel. The expected BO on the 5 min chart should be north. But it was south! So that was the unexpected event. On the 30 min chart it (the unexpected event) shows up as that huge 12:00 bear bar. ON the 5 min it shows up as a two legged move down. With an implied PB after the first leg down (bar 12:15) Then a measure move consisting of a second leg down. There is more than one way to measure the MM move but either way is profitable. The second chart shows the measure move down starting at the BO of the TR bottom and then the second half of the move after the implied PB ends and price continues down. Price actually went a little further down than the measure move before reversing back up. A second way of looking at the measure move is from the BO point of the channel to the middle of that implied PB bar (bar 12:15) and extend that the same distance down for a PT. Less of a profit but still a profit. You can see this on the third chart. There is even another third way to measure a measured move. Go back in the bear channel to bar 11:35 when the entire move down started. Measure down to the BO point of the bear channel at the bottom then extend that on down. I didn't show a chart doing this but you can visualize it. In summary: Anytime you see the unexpected happen THEN look for a measured move down consisting of two or more legs on the 5 min chart. And remember, there is usually more than one way to measure the measured move. The point is they are all profitable. So the way that price moves, as the unexpected event is happening, determines which measure move I will use. If price is hopping and driving down I will likely go for the larger MM. If grudgingly heading down then I may opt for the smaller MM. Or the middle size MM. It never hurts to draw all possible MM's and watch "how" price is being made as it moves down (i.e. the dynamics) to pick which MM to use. I never took this trade as I had to leave for the hospital right after my exit of the trade shown on the chart. But I saw what happened afterwards and wanted to make some comments about it. These are sometimes why some traders think PA patterns don't work but 50% percent of the time, which is nonsense. Just look at the bear channel. By far most BO attempts south and north failed and price went right back into the channel. That is precisely why a channel forms! However, one has to always be cognizant that a BO top or bottom WILL happen. It a bear channel and that BO is USUALLY topside. But when it happens bottom side LOOK for a MM down. There are other hints WITHIN the channel that an impending bear BO of the bear channel is likely and that hint are the bearish pressures shown in the channel. In other words, it was a hint that an unexpected BO might happen. What pressures you might ask? From bar 11:35 to my entry and exit bar (12:00)t here are 4 bear bars and 2 dojis. Three are consecutive bear bars. Now dojis are simply a one bar TR. I consider my entry and exit bar as a doji too as the body is less than 1/2 the size of the bar. All these things are "hints" that price is bearish and an ensuing BO of the channel MAY be south. Therefore, one can get ready mentally for an unexpected event. And if one does scalp long from the bottom, like I did, make it a quick small scalp. You can flip these concepts around if it is a BULL channel on a 5 min chart. They function as a bear flags on a larger TF with likely BO south. But when it is north then that is the unexpected event and therefore look for a MM north!
Here is a post I made in another thread on my thought processes when looking a at chart. Some may find it as an interesting read describing in general terms my overview of PA and what I am looking for as I observe the graphical picture that is being drawn as price action unfolds i.e. …..the chart. MY THOUGHT PROCESSES WHILE LOOKING AT, VIEWING, AND WATCHING A CHART I am looking for bullish/bearish pressures within three contexts: 1) The larger context. This is the market cycle I speak of in my journal. This contexts reveals the larger buy/sell pressures. 2) The patterns that form i.e. triangles…wedges…trend lines…BO’s…. Flags…etc indicate pressures in the intermediate context and SHOULD be correlated with number 1 above. 3) The immediate context. Beside the phase of the market cycle (the larger context) and the intermediate context (price patterns) there is an immediate context. Each bar and it’s position relative to other nearby bars reveals something of the pressures. Each bar being a bear bar, bull bar, or doji bar upon it’s close reveals more hints about the immediate pressures. Consecutive “like” bars indicate pressures..i.e. several bull bars in sequence or several bear bars in sequence. The size of the bars (range) also reveal more about the pressures. I am keen on “seeing” which side is winning, the bears or the bulls, in all three contexts then employing trading tactics, techniques, or setups that give me more probability of a successful trade. The question to ask myself: Given a view of the contexts above, with their buying and selling pressures, which they reveal, will my PT likely be hit before my initial risk is hit? If I can get a positive traders equation then I will take the trade and may even employ additional tactics after an taking an initial position….for example…such as averaging down. In the right context averaging down gives me even GREATER probability of a successful scalp (1 to 8 points in ES) and greater profit potential as I am adding at cheaper prices and when price turns and goes my way I make MORE money. If I have read the pressures correctly I should, in addition, have a high win rate. If I average down and I am right on the pressures I also increase my probability of a winner AND thus a bigger monetary winner. If I am wrong on my read then averaging down increases my probability of getting out at BE or a small loss. The dynamics of price movement after my entires will reveal if my read was wrong or right. Of course there are times when an average down position will go totally awry and I have to have an exit point where I will totally dump the loser followed by doubling or tripling up new entry, but in the correct direction. This way I get back my loss quickly and usually also back in profit.
In the same thread the questions were asked me as concerns doubling and tripling up: 1) Doesn't this increase your risk? 2) Is it unreasonable to think you might have more than one loser in a row? Below is my response to the questions: Actually, done in the right conditions, it INCREASES my probability of getting back a previous loss and likely even making a profit. Instead of seeing it as increased risk I view it as “increased profit potential” because my previous position (my loss) has now shown me I am the wrong side of the market for a scalper, and I need to make haste and get on the right side. The doubling up or tripling up is to get back my previous loss in 1/3 to 1/2 of size price movement that created my loss in the first place. Of course I don’t have to double up on my next entry but if the market has proven to me that my previous read is wrong then by doubling or tripling up I get back my loss more quickly. As far as more than one loser in a row. That is rare for me but does happen. If I take a second loss and it is a double up loss then I am not in sync with the market. I am getting whipped sawed. I would see no reason to keep trading with money. I would instead prefer to go to a SIM and see if I can iron out the reasons why I am out of sync and get myself back in sync. Often it may just be a temporary mental issue. Or it may be that I am distracted and not focused. Or it could be physical. I am diabetic and some days my brain just does not work well. If I think I got “whatever” the problem is ironed out, then I can go back to real trading with $$$$, if I wish to continue. If I then continue to lose then I believe it to be better to shut the computer down and go find something else to do for the day. I try to keep everything a process for myself. Not an emotional event. I work the process.
I might add. I view averaging down not as a revenge trade but a technique employed to give me: 1) Increased probability the trade will be successful. 2) Increased monetary results as it turns in my favor. I.E. more $$$$$ 3) Increased probability of me getting out at BE, or at a smaller loss, if it turns in my favor but doesn’t turn enough in my favor to give me a profit. Averaging down is a strategic process not something to wail about as pundits do. It is just as much a valid and sound technique as entering on PB is. A trader just needs to develop the skill on when and how to employ averaging down and what to do if the averaging down goes wrong. Doubling or tripling up after a loss is not a revenge act on the market for making me have to endure a loss but it is a process to get back a loss and and in a profit on a much smaller move, price wise, than what caused the loss to start with. It has nothing to do with getting even with the market. It gets me back to even (money wise) or better without spending the rest of the session just trying to get back a loss and end the day in profit. Assuming my previous loss wiped out all my previous profits for the session (which can happen BTW). Both techniques are processes to be followed not emotional “I will pay you back you dirty rotten evil market” LOL. TRADING over the long haul has to become processes not emotional actions or reactions. Constantly looking at the DOM, at paper profits not locked in, if one is a scalper, will evoke emotions. Look at the chart and focus on the process and execute. The money will take care of itself. As the old saying goes in the song “there will be time for counting after the dealing is done.” The hardest thing is to train ourselves to see trading as a process based upon what the chart is showing the market is doing and then executing what we see to be truth (the chart cannot lie). If instead, we look at the money, we will get emotional and that will cloud our thinking and judgement.
Yes -I tried this but using same size stake -reversing a trade on the Dow index ( 1 minute time frame). My criteria for a short (for example) is proved wrong when price goes the opposite way past my entry candle stop. So I go long for a few points and take profit. If I think the trade ( A Long for example) has simply pulled back aftr my entry but has not hit my stop I will feed in trades as price begins to return towards my original entry -here I may reduce a loss or quickly build to get back into profit. After what you have written I will try/demo increasing stake after reversing. Thanks for all the info Volpri.
Hope it works for you, practice it several times on SIM. Remember it is important that the immediate dynamic is good enough to take the immediate double up reversal or else I wait for another better entry to double up on for getting back a loss in 1/2 the distance in price movement that occurred on the previous loss.
With your trading platform, when you are avenging in or out of trades, do your individual entries show up as separate on the chart, or do they simply show a single entry on an average price, no matter if it is two, 3, 5 contracts?