Ugh. I can tell even on ignore from the responses that the "Australian Hold and Pray" is still strong in this thread. I imagine that is his approach though because mastering the intraday is a bit above his pay grade so to speak. Probably all talk anyway. Doesnt matter. This style works as proven time and time again by Volpri.
Hahaha, lmao, has me on ignore (apparently) but still knows what I'm posting, can't resist peeking, can't resist replying, you are funny! There's a huge amount of international successful long term traders, certainly isn't an Australian phenomenen.
I think one person can be both. Long term and day trader. I'm trying to be. Time will tell! I love hard yakka, and that is what it takes, right Mickey??!!
Good Morning Volpri, I appreciate your response and well written. I will use some of your approaches next time the drawdown comes. Thank you. I was thinking Scalpers with high win rater Never have losing days. But I think its hard to avoid a losing day.
You are jesting me right? I occasionally have days “nothing” goes right. I cannot seem to flow with the market. Can’t read it well. For whatever reason. Maybe because being a diabetic I sometimes get brain fog and a bit confused. Or I didn’t sleep well. Or I am distracted with other things on my mind. At any rate when it happens, if I cannot get it fixed and get back in the flow on a SIM I find it to be better, at least for me, to just stop trading for that session and go do something else. I am a discretionary trader and that means I have to make judgements by reading price PA, calculations, and decisions, then execute. Try this on a SIM: Use the traders equation as taught by Brooks and make a trade IN ES or MES. If the market moves against you average down an equal amount of contracts at two points of adverse movement. That will move your BE close to where price is trading. If it continues against you 3 or 4 points FROM the new BE then add a second time an equal amount. Again BE will move closer to PA of the moment. Then hold and see what happens. Set your SL: For a long trade: At major Higher Low. A MHL is a rally off a low (and that low being higher than a previous low) that is strong enough of rally to make a new high (not necessarily the high of the session). For a short trade: At major Lower High. A MLH is a decline of a high (and that high being lower than a previous high) that is strong enough of a decline to make a new low. (but not necessarily a new low of the entire session) If I am doing the trade in a TR I may opt to set the SL outside the range limits even if larger it is a larger SL than what a MHL or MLH would give me. Usually, in trending movements there will be several of these MLH’s AND MHL’s to choose from. You can choose the one closest to your entry or one further away as the point to place your SL. I usually chose the one that in my mind invalidates the premise of me taking the trade in the first place. If price keeps moving against you and hits your SL then that is when you want to look at doubling or tripling up to get back your loss, and doing so in less movement that caused the loss in the first place. Sometimes I will take my loss before my hard SL is hit if the dynamics are hopping. Once out with a loss, then in that vicinity of invalidation, is where I want to reverse direction…double up …or triple up …in the market flow direction. Sometimes I may have to wait for a new setup if price stalls. R:R is IMO a useless calculation if probability is not factored in. IMO it is one of the most over rated MEASUREMENTS ever imposed upon the trading world and is pounded over and over by many pundits. What IMO is way more important is: will price likely hit your profit target before it would hit your SL? You might be pleasantly surprised to see that when the dust settles you will often have at least a 1:1 and sometimes 3:1 or even 8:1 R:R Sometimes I get a 10:1 actual R:R after the trade is over with. Actual risk is what the market actually goes against you plus 1 tick before it hands you your profit. I will move PT if dynamics of the moment indicate to do so.
Averaging down helps me maintain a high win rate, which I believe is necessary for me to be a successful scalper. Doubling and tripling up helps me get back a loss quickly without trying to fight the rest of the session to get it back. I know these two things are not “approved” as legit techniques by the pundits of trading but it is what I have hammered out that works for me. If I have any loss, whether from an averaged down trade or a straight scalp, I try to get it back in the next 2 or 3 trades. Since there are usually 20 to 40 (if trading the much mocked 5m TF) fairly good trading opportunities presented in the average session I usually have enough time to get it back unless the loss occurs in the last 5 or 10 minutes of the session. Use of the traders equation factors in probability (probability that is based on experience just from seeing something so many times) to get a positive traders equation is pretty important to get a good entry before placing the trade.
I know the pundits will say on averaging down that I am throwing good money after bad but I “see” it differently. I see it as: 1) building a position at better prices. 2) an opportunity to avoid a loss (but certainly NOT just avoiding a loss being the only reason as that can be a losing proposition). 3) giving me a higher win rate (who wants a lower one? …I know how the argument goes for lower win rates) but as a scalper I will take a higher win rate ANY DAY. ( could be because I detest losing ….always have….in any thing….and am psychologically fragile..who knows?) I just know I had rather win than lose. 4) as raising the probability that I will end up making a profit on the trade because BE and profit is closer in distance to the immediate PA. I know the arguments…just take the loss and enter again…to hell with that ….I don’t want to bleed to death by a thousand paper cuts… If there was a good reason to take the trade in the first place then there is a good reason to add to it at better prices on a little adverse movement. Doubling or tripling up is a no..no…in the pundit world of ivory tower thrones and back seat drivers. It is deemed as foolish and throwing even MORE good money after bad. Don’t do it they may say. But I see it differently: 1) as going with the market flow. If institutions control the market direction, and they do, (unless you believe in that random BS and brownian crap) then to make money I have to be willing to change my opinion about market direction and go with the flow. 2) getting back my loss in LESS movement. 3) a new opportunity for profit. 4) as a separate trade (albeit loaded) from the previous losing trade. “History is past…the future is a mystery….but in the present I can make a difference.” 5) it is throwing MORE good money after a BETTER opportunity.
Livermore said his big money was made by his sitting tight and not thinking. I may not have his exact quote correct (have to look in my Livermore story book…you know which one…), but the ideas he expressed are in my statement above…at least I think they are… What he fails to mention is his big losses were caused by the same phenomena. LOL. He was one of a kind. Talented and greatly respected, looked up to by many many traders, even today, decades later. He did do some great things and deserves respect…But he was human too. SITTING TIGHT AND NOT THINKING CAN CAUSE ONE TO LOSE BIG AS WELL AS GAIN BIG. I don’t mean to take away from his stupendous and almost unbelievable accomplishments but I am just driving home a point or two here. Just ask the 50% of hedge funds about “ sitting” that fail. And the mutual funds that have blown to smithereens an investors life savings. The most successful HFT’s don’t “sit” for long. And they “think” a lot. Usually, with a roomful of highly educated thinkers. Some of their thoughts are good, others aren’t, but at least they are “thinking”. Sitting tight only applies when in the “flow” but thinking should apply at all times or one will sit tight in huge losses. A scalper MUST have a point in any trade where his premise is deemed invalid and he just needs to get out and reverse and go with the market flow. But, until that point of invalidity ie reached or likely to be reached, scaling in, aka averaging down ….ROFLMAO, can be a reasoned approach IMO.
If you are Type 2 and you are now eating reasonably healthy, two things may help: A high quality probiotic (15 billion organisms), but especially Berberine (500mg x 3, 15 minutes before each meal). I was insulin resistant and well on my way to becoming Type 2. Started Berberine about four months ago, along with dietary changes, and it saved the day. I no longer have blood sugar issues. Check with your doc first to make sure it won't interfere with your other meds.