I found it overbought because I compared the movement with that of the previous days. In previous days the price fell much earlier, so it seemed impossible for me to rise so much. By comparison it seemed to me that I had to fall, but I see that every day is unique, lesson learned
What I have learned is that the one hour chart should give me peace of mind, first the one hour chart should tell me where the price is going because if it is not impossible to operate in lower timeframes, am I correct?
However, sometimes it is not so easy, the market movement in one hour chart can also be random and unpredictable, so if the hourly chart becomes random then they can say that I should have noticed the 4-hour chart, then if The 4-hour chart becomes random so you can say that I should have noticed the one-day chart, so if the daily chart is random then you could tell me that I should look at the weekly chart, do you understand the point? That is why over the years the superior timeframes, weekly, monthly, have proven to me to be more effective in gaining consistency. I love your Volpri method and it should be highly effective, but ... what happens when the one hour timeframe becomes random? Better move on to something else? Gold? Petroleum?
It makes a lot of anger to make money and then lose it in a moment, it is a psychological torture, you really have to know the market a lot to operate with confidence.
Volpri Apologies -LONG above break of diagonal (green bar). Vertical is US opening ( shown as UK time). Probably could have longed just after open 9break of consolidation to the left. I look for price to be above or below trend line ( cloud is not to important). Other times I wait for price to break the trend line and then trade a break of that candle in same direction.
That one hour chart you posted in your post 143 IS NOT random. “Randomness is the lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. ... The fields of mathematics, probability, and statistics use formal definitions of randomness.” Wikipedia “A random pattern is an oxymoron. The definition of random is 'not following any known patterns'. However, once we are able to find a pattern in any perceived randomness, it is no longer considered as random.” Quora Random: An event that has no contributing variables and thus whose outcome is impossible to predict. With these definitions in mind, I will restate my thesis: there is no such thing as random. That is to say, there are no events that have no determining variables. Andrew Eifler The market goes..Range to BO (in form of spike or small successive bars) ..then channel (once pullbacks start...a actual PB is a low that goes below the low of the previous bar)...then range. Each phase of the cycle has it’s own distinctives...characteristics, other identifying factors, variables in form and force, probabilities and uncertainties. In all phases of the market there is inertia. There are patterns that form. They form because of the underlying forces. They are not random. Inertia is the resistance of the object to any change in its motion, including a change in direction. An object will stay still or keep moving at the same speed and in a straight line, unless it is acted upon by an external unbalanced force. Wikipedia Markets form patterns because of forces. Markets tend to keep doing what they are doing until a forces acts upon them. There is momentum and acceleration at play in the markets too. You see this in BO’s. Now with the above in mind what phase of the cycle would you say the 1 hour chart in your post 143 is in? Range? Bo followed by Channel? (i.e. a trend). All trends are composed of BO’s and channels. So you got: Range BO Channel Then repeat. What is your 1 hour chart in post #143 in? Now go back and look at your 1 hour chart posted in your Post #134. This chart in post 134 also has included the portion you posted in post #124 so it renders more info that your post 124. So what phases or phases can you identify in your chart posted in #134? Is the market in your last 1 hour example (post #143) trending or moving sideways? If you HAD to draw an arrow showing the direction of the movement would it be a sideways arrow or a vertical or (variation thereof) arrow? You see it is important to identify the general context first...then the immediate context..then look for the setups. Understand, that for each phase of the market cycle there are tendencies and identifying factors. A traders job is to identify the phase..read the larger context...read the immediate context...formulate a premise...then trade that premise using setups of a tactical nature that are conducive to the contexts of the price action. And that have a probability of rendering a successful trade. You can never be 100% certain. Such is the nature of the market. But it is NOT random. It moves with purpose. Forces are acting upon it. They are bears and bulls. One side wins for a while then the other side wins. A trades job is to determine WHICH side is winning at the moment and then join that side. USUALLY when people use the word random it is because they do not understand or cannot explain what they are seeing.
All Time Frame charts SHOW the tendencies of the market and the probabilities of directional movements. THE larger TF’s simply show the tendencies, probabilities, and market phase cycle in the location that the same thing in the smaller TF’s are taking place in the moment. That is, whatever is happening in the smaller TF can be located in the larger TF. Each market phase cycle has it elements about it. It is useful to see where immediate price action is at in each TF phase within the market cycle for that TF. For instance, a 15 min chart is in one of the phases of the market cycle. Lets for arguments sake say that price is at the top of a bear channel on the 15 minute chart. Dial down to a 5 min chart. It has been in a mini range and a BO to the bullish side is taking place. So, if you locate on the 15 min chart the 5 min chart price action what are you going to do? Trade the 5 min chart BO long or look to short the bull BO in the 5 min chart?
Volpri Thanks for the comments and taking the time to annotate my chart. Yes - I entered around the blue dot - now I have to repeat that type of precision I like the idea of Futures trading and enjoy your posts. Thanks again.