Well, that is the key difference between our styles. I LOVE the idea of averaging down, and I REALLY want to believe in it. But I have learned that in the end, over the last few volatile years, that it can be very destructive to an account balance in the futures world. And I don't like that. One of these days we will reconcile. But when we go from the shit we had on Monday to the shit we had yesterday? Good grief, it is too much for me to stomach. The Ym is a perfect example yesterday. 700 points down one day, 600 points up today, or whatever it is? Yikes!
Averaging down or ANY type of trading can be destructive in ANY account SIM, or real, if a trader does not know how to do it successfully, nor have ways in place to mitigate the damage when things go wrong. And things will go wrong, sooner or later. Probably sooner! So, trading, any style, can be destructive. Just putting money in a mutual fund can be destructive to ones net worth.. I am not telling anyone to average down or use any techniques i show in this journal. I'm not telling anyone to trade with real money. I'm not selling any thing. No service. No system. No course. All I am doing is showing how I trade in my journal and if folks find it interesting then they can try it on a SIM. Just for fun. ONLY FOR FUN AND ENTERTAINMENT. WARNING: TO ALL WHO READ MY JOURNAL SHOWING HOW I TRADE. DO NOT TRADE AS I PORTRAY IT IN THIS JOURNAL IN A REAL MONEY ACCOUNT. PLAY AROUND WITH THE TECHNIQUES ON A SIM IF YOU WANT BUT DON'T EVEN SIM IT IF IT IS TOO MUCH FOR YOU EMOTIONALLY. EVEN SIM ACCOUNTS CAN GET DESTROYED BY TRADING. YOU MIGHT BE BETTER OFF JUST READING MY JOURNAL STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIVE PURPOSES OR OUT OF PURE CURIOSITY BUT NOT DOING NOTHING WITH IT. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. YOU CAN LOSE ALOT OF MONEY IN THE MARKETS. SOME PEOPLE MAKE ALOT OF MONEY IT CAN BE ASSUMED OR THE MARKETS PROBABLY WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR SO LONG BUT YOU MIGHT END UP BEING THE PERSON WHO LOSES ALOT. DO NOT USE REAL MONEY TRADING THE WAY I TRADE IN THIS JOURNAL. NO REAL MONEY. WE ALL HAVE OUR OPINIONS. I AM SHOWING HOW I TRADE MY OPINIONS IN THE MARKETS. I AM IN NO WAY TELLING ANYONE TO TRADE WITH REAL MONEY LIKE I EXPRESS IN THIS JOURNAL. AND MOST OF MY OPINIONS AND THE WAYS I TRADE HAVE ROOTS IN WHAT I LEARNED FROM OTHERS AND ADAPTED FOR MYSELF. A FEW I MAY HAVE INVENTED FOR MYSELF. IT GETS BLURRY AS TO THE EXACT SOURCE AFTER SO MANY YEARS OF READING, STUDYING, AND PROCESSING CONCEPTS.
@Overnight. If you have any concerns about anything I do or write in this journal just refer folks to my post #1252. So, if they do anything that hurts their account whether SIM account or real account well they have been warned and it is totally on them. AGAIN I WILL TELL ALL WHO READ MY JOURNAL. "DO NOT DO THESE THINGS I PORTRAY IN THIS JOURNAL IN A REAL ACCOUNT." I hope this lays to rest any concerns you may have about the concepts I use in trading. Or I could just keep my mouth shut or rather my fingers from typing but then I don't believe there is a law against expressing a view point or opinion is there? Seems like to me there is such a thing as freedom of speech or did I just dream that up? Remember my post number. It is #1252. Every time a technique pops up in my journal that you don't like or don't agree with you may from henceforth tell folks to read my post #1252. That will be fine with me.
Trading the outer limits of a very broad range. Notice the race up then down then up in the range. Typical range behavior. Sooner or later a successful BO will occur. But until them I use range trading techniques to scalp. The race up from 8:30 bar to the top (see oval). I shorted expecting price to go back into the range within 5 bars. It did and was a several point scalp.
A 2 point trade in the ES still shorting outer limits. In this case especially betting price will probe back down testing the low of the previous bear bar. Notice context price up in 1/4 top of the range. That is shorting area or ranges. 1/3 if giddy. Hallmarks of a range. Up/down. Confusion. Disappointment as Mr Brooks would say.
Ok as the session progresses. So far I have taken 3 trades in the ES this morning. 2 winners. 1 loser. One winner (trade#1 was a 2 point short scalp-winner). Trade 2 was a short scalp 1 point-loser. I guess I accidently clicked the Dom on this one because I don't use a 1 point SL in this sort of price action. All I know is I suddenly had a 1 point loss. Trade# was an averaged down winner. A short scalp too. I took a position then added to it when price moved against me. Then covered when both entries were in the money locking in profits getting back my previous loss and then making some. These are techniques scalping the outer edge at the top of a range ...shorting and making profits on small moves back towards the range or the middle of the range.
In addition to the other posts I told you to study you might want to look at this mornings post #1256. It is scalping the outer edges of a range in a broad range Ignore the 3rd trade averaging down as you probably don't need to SIM practice averaging down yet. Or just pretend it was a straight scalp (i.e. one entry) from either of my entries short in trade #3. Both entries made money so either of them would have worked in a straight scalp from either entry. The idea is scalping the outer edges. When the scalp is turning into a bigger move south and I have a position short on, as it moves towards the center of the range or even the bottom then I just keep sliding my PT down on the DOM. Otherwise, I am happy with a 1 to 4 point quick scalp doing it over and over. Unlike some traders I will adjust my PT and even my SL as the trade unfolds. Nothing is carved in stone for me. I play the markets movements. This concept of trading the outer edges is based on the observable fact that most (about 80%) of BO attempts, top or bottom of a range, fail and within 5 bars the price has reversed and is moving back towards the range edge or even into the middle area of the range and will likely eventually make it to the bottom of the range. However, after a range has gone on for a long time I have to be ready for a successful BO and then trade that differently.
There are no shortage of useless and mindless threads to troll. If you don't know the difference between scaling in within a defined and disciplined trade plan and adding to simply avoid a loss by now then you would be better off posting less rubbish and do more study and research. Volpri has one of the few threads on ET that can actually help a journeyman to understand price action and how to trade it.....BTW, volatility is a good thing.
@speedo BRAVO, BRAVO ! Thanks for this cogent post -- which hopefully will silence the fools who cannot recognize "Pearls before the Swine"
Notice something here. As time goes buy a second smaller range has formed in the upper part of the BROADER range. This smaller range has about 25 bars sideways movement so it can be identified as a range too. We are seeing at this very moment a fairly strong BO attempt north of this smaller range. Will it be successful or will it reverse and price go back into the smaller range within 5 bars? Time will tell, but I would be willing to short it and bet we will get enough move back to the top of the small range or even the middle of it. Enough for a min scalp at least which is one point in the ES. I would even average down but I would also be quick to grab what the market gives me as we may be heading for a SPBL type of PA for most most of the session as price is holding above the Moving averages.