Where is the price going tomorrow? When one does not know, just average into the losers. Seems that is your backup MO, which is what you used before the pandemic.
What I do is price action (PA) trading. There is a lot to learn. First, you need to learn about the 3 contexts. The first context is the market cycle. You can find posts of mine below that discuss this context. Study them. Practice identifying them in the MNQ using the overnight or Globex session and the RTH’s (regular trading hours session from 8:30 a.m. to 3:15 p.m. Chicago time). These posts will help understand the market cycle. 1188, 1191, 1212, 1227,1229,1235,1239. Interspersed throughout these threads are other post showing examples of trades I took. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to those because some of them are techniques you probably do not need to learn yet. Understanding and being able to find or identify the cycle phases on a chart are foundational to ALL PA trading. After that study the posts on Ranges. There are several posts but you can begin with these: 1153, 1156, 1168. Don’t try to understand all the ways or setups to trade when price is in a range. Just focus on one concept of trading the ranges of the market cycle. That technique is fading the outer limits. Don’t try averaging down. Not at first. Only take short trades that are in the top 1/4 of the range. Cover on any move to the middle. Only go long on trades in the bottom 1/4 of the range and exit on profitable moves towards the middle of the range. There are many other posts on trading ranges and some that use averaging down on entries but do not do that yet. Learn to just straight scalp without averaging down. And instead of top or bottom 1/3 use the top or bottom 1/4 of the range for your entries. Since the market spend way more time in ranges than BO’s you will find enough trades on a 5 minute chart. Just focus on identifying the cycle phase then if you find the market in the range phase of the cycle then use the technique above for entries and exits. Train yourself to execute the trades when price reaches that upper or lower 1/4. It is counter intuitive because often price will race to the top then back to the bottom. When it races to the top traders want to go long when they should be going short. When it races to the bottom they want to short when they should be going long. Follow the rules for range trading that are in the posts above. The range must be broad enough. The rules will explain. Train yourself on a SIM. All of the above is for SIM trading only. You need to see if it will work for you. I cannot and will not tell you to use real money. Again, focus only on this one technique of fading in the top and bottom 1/4 and no averaging down. Use a wide stop loss outside the range and scalp on any profitable move towards the middle of the range. You got to use a wide SL (stop loss) because price will often go against your entry and move outside the range but within 5 bars come back towards the range. Good Luck, Volpri
I don’t know where it is going tomm but whenever it does go I will know what to do. Will you? There are directional possibilities and probabilities of those possibilities. I’m sorry you cannot understand averaging down the way I explain it. You seem stuck on it as a hideous technique. My experience has been it can be a very useful technique, if used correctly and when scalping.
Because when the indices go from ranging from 0.3 percent day after day, to ranging 3% the next day, that can wipe out an account with an average down technique. There is no allowance in the method if money is withdrawn, because if at end of day you lost 100% of what was gained in the past week through the method, it disheartens people. Has anyone on this forum posted a journal utilizing your techniques?
New Al Brooks Video: "Scalping series: #03 Ten Emini scalps on 15-second chart" https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/trading-strategies/ten-emini-scalps/ Time for volpri to have a go at the 5 sec chart
Clearly Volpri knows what he is doing. Its obvious he averages down based on trade type / context. Most shouldn't. He can because he understands PA well enough. Nothing more nothing less. Fair enough?
We could get into the details in a PM. Volpri has posted in my journal, and I have posted in his. I just don't want to see people get into trouble. Volpri started his journal after the micros were introduced. I started mine before the micros. One must never throw caution to the wind with the average-down technique.
You must not have even read my posts that indicate how I average down. Otherwise, you would know that I would be out of an averaged down position way before it would wipe out my account. But your journal, if I remember correctly, has instances of you holding through horrendous drawdowns. If I were you I sure would not average down, if holding through huge drawdowns is your MO for trading! That is all I am going to say about the matter. Overnight..you sure you want to hold overnight? ROFL P.S. maybe you should warn people about your way of trading??