In am back for just a few minutes. As mentioned earlier odds favored more move south and we did get a fourth leg down then that morphed into a range. I took a short scalp at the top of the range for 3 points. By the time I finish posting this we are heading towards the middle of the range. I will look to go long on an actual PB (which we are in as I type) or short on an implied PB top 1/3 of the range or in the middle area of the range if it makes it there, or long in the bottom 1/3 of the range. The reason I grab that 3 point scalp at the top of the range is because of the 2 legged bull move from bar 11:50. Price could just as well head on up from my entry bar. But I am weighing the odds (probabilities) and since the implied PB in the 2 legged bull ove is at the top of the range I will take a chance and short for a few points in a scalp.
Shorting in top 1/3 on an implied bear move PB (move was from 13:00 to 13:00. All bear bars are trends on a smaller TF. We will see what happens.
And here is what happened. This was a quick candy bar trade of 1 contract... 3 points. This is the process I am trying to show. A trader can trade any size they wish. The process is the same. It doesn't matter.
Followed by another 3 point scalp. Typical range trading. Working my way down with price LOCKING in profits on multiple what? Multiple implied PB's! Nine points made from bar 12:55 to bar 13:45. Again, this is the process. Size doesn't matter. Any size a trader can afford. The size just doesn't matter. The process is the same. Gott go... my wife has me doing a project with her kitchen sink. If momma ain't happy ain't nobody happy...ROFLMAO
MES 5 min chart 1-8-2021 We were discussing PB's until @themickey had a laughing spell. I think he finally stopped to catch his breath so I will jump in quickly before he resumes his trend. So, why do I want to trade PB's in a trend? Because they are high probability trades. There are actual PB's and implied PB's. But like anything else in life they sometimes fail to succeed and thus fail to become a profitable trade. So, what do I do when an implied PB fails and WHEN do I do whatever it is that I do? Once I make an entry on an implied PB because I expect the previous trend to resume but I find it doesn't and price keeps retracing the previous trend, and my averaging down position is getting bigger, causing my loss to increase in size, when do I pull the plug on the trade? Once I see price retrace 70% to 75% of the previous move and I am averaged in and losing I am likely gonna going to exit the trade and take my loss. There are a few exceptions but generally with a 70% to 75% retracement it is time to give up. My premise was wrong and the balance of power has shifted to the long side (in this example) once 70% to 75%, or more, of retracement of the previous bearish move is made. Just reverse everything when trading a previous bullish move that has an implied PB. Ok so the pressure is now to the long side in this example. Not only do we now have 70% or more retracement (by my losing exit) but we also have 3 consecutive bull bars with gaps between their close and the close of the next bar. And their high and the high of the next bar. And gaps between the close of the present bar (my exit bar) and the high of the bar two bars back. All that indicates buying pressure and likely at least one more push up to the high of the day made in this session or maybe even more. So after exiting what do I do? I want my loss back; correct? I also want to be back in the money; right? And the market proved my premise wrong that is was going to continue down; correct? So what must I do? I double up in size from the size of my losing position and reverse direction and trade with the market not against it. Generally, in a little more than 1/2 the size move that I lost on in the previous trade, I not only get my loss back but am back in the money. Here is an example from today's trades. Study it and then maybe try the technique on a SIM. There back to @themickey and his laughing. Intermission is over! ROFLMAO. Might as well join him!
For further consideration and another look at how an implied PB on the 5 min chart above is an actual PB on a 1 min chart. Here is a 1 min chart of the same trades as shown on the 5 min chart above, with explanations. Hope it elucidates or at least gives @themickey a hearty laugh. I hope he doesn't fall off the stool at the café and spill his hot coffee on himself. If you have only just started looking at this journal and don't understand the difference in an actual PB and an implied PB read a few of the more recent, but previous posts of mine. Carry on @themickey Trump is out and Bidens in. Unfortunately for me and America.