Technicals OR Fundamentals!!!?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by pips it, Jan 31, 2006.

  1. pips it

    pips it

    Good day everyone,

    I have spent quite sometime trying to get the finest technique for entry and exit of my daily trades....

    I wonder who is more powerful driving the market, technicals or fundamentals!!?

    At so many times, you end up with a sort of paradox between the two driving forces of the market, for example, you get a bull fundamental signal, but along with a bear technical one!! and vice versa ....

    For me, I have been taking the fundamental side mostly... I wonder what other minds in here might be reacting to such a paradox between the two!?

    I would appreciate further discussion of this subject in here ....

  2. Depends on your time frame. Day to Day and especially inraday have very little to do with fundamentals. Long term, fundamental make a difference, but they are reflected in price action and can be seen on the charts--thus TA is the proper method to catch both supply/demand etc and crowd psychology.
  3. pips it

    pips it

    ok .... let me take this current example of the eur/usd ....

    daily charts are almost deeply in the oversold side .... from a technical point of view taking this and other indicators into consideration I expect the pair to rise up today ....

    yet at 19:15 GMT and if the fed was sounding more hawkish, the pair is gonna be sold out!!!!

    what I wanna say is that traders react to the fundamentals more sharply than they do to technicals!!!?

    am I right!!!?
  4. I think traders that lose consistently react more to the fundamental when news comes out--generally I would say the smart money already has their positions. By the way, daily charts shows that EUR/USD is a long way from being oversold. Hourly charts did show that, and as I was posting yesterday it looked to be carving out a base on hourlies which it certainly did. We may see a non volatile day while waiting for the report. Right now, dailies are pointing down and weekly are showing a sign of turning down. The fact is that neither I nor anyone "knows" the next direction, we simply value the probabilities. That is why we use stops--we can be wrong and look in the mirror(important to actually do this) and acknowledge that we were wrong, but we still have our toes tappin'
  5. pips it

    pips it

    much appreciated for the insight.... but i have my SS (5,3,3) reading of 6!! and an almost nuetral RSI of 50, candlestick formation that supports an upward correction.

    anyway, the case is that yes you are all true about the consistency part, but dont you think that technical evaluation costs more on the downside risk than that fundamental reaction!!?

    and another interesting thing that i would like some comments about is the 15 minutes chart!! (am a daily trader, thats why am interested in the relatively short periods)

    thanks again ...
  6. 15 min chart beginning to show signs of a top
  7. short term top I should say
  8. pips it

    pips it

    yeah sure ..... but what i was asking is the 15 minute chart in general ... how reliable ist for entry and exit signals!!? actually I rely much on this period as an intraday trader!!

    any comments!!!?
  9. unreliable in catching the decent moves --oh you'll catch them and catch them early, but they are few and far between. Very reliable though in catching 5 to 15 pips on a regular basis. You must be very nimble to turn around and catch the decent moves. 5 to 15 pips is not enough gravy for me per commission. It may be what you desire though. 15 minute chart works for higher pips after 3 AM EST , so you will feel like staying up all night, which is not in my game plan.