from here. The stochastics on the QQQ are quite bullish at this moment, and I suspect further rally this week to 1400 on the Nasdaq Comp. good trading... nolan
Weekly IXIC didn´t finish above it´s SMA 50, fürthermore it finished friday with a lovely doji; and the SPX didn´t succeed in breaking out above it´s downtrend. Bonds also started a rebound. Gold, Oil and $ will show the way to go, but nonetheless, I´m short biased for monday.
For what it's worth I agree with Nolan. My short term sentiment indicators were extremely overbought coming into Friday making another in your face rally statistically unlikely. However 6 hours of sideways trade grounded those indicators back into a ready for take off again mode. IMO the indices failure to make concessions into Thursday's range was quite bullish, and an indication that the market is seeking higher value as a base. Those 850ish highs in ES look like they gotta go.
In my view the most likely scenario is a 3-day wonder for right now. After that we will probably break lower. Of course, you never know if and when a military aggression will occur, so all out TA might not be that important these couple of weeks ... What concerns me is that the EUR/USD seems to have broken 1.0956 (or whatever the exact level there was) with enough force to justify a bigger move than actually occured. So either we go back to 1.16 (or something like that) soon or those traders who are short dollars are going to be quite surprised and quite panicky. Wouldn't you agree?
I'd want to see corresponding VIX below 35 and Bonds plunge below their 20 day moving average area. If not, then remember how the market loves to fully retrace those big rally days like we had thursday. If it goes up then 850 to 870 looks as resistance for the S&P.. But anything could happen! Stay focused and treat each day as if it's your last.
I tend to agree with you on the VIX although I'd prefer the value below 33 on a daily close. However, it has been my casual observation that the VIX is less dependable leading into and during the week of options expiration. So I will be taking the VIX value with a grain of salt during this week.
QQQ broke up, trend line started December high, January high and closed above 200dma and 222dma and Nasdaq closed above 200dma Nasdaq is relatively strong this year. Will QQQ be strong enough to pull Nasdaq and than will Nasdaq pull S&P along with it? same sector doesn't usually lead bull market twice (something smells fishy) I think we will hit resistance and go lower.
I already made +1.50 on the SPX's !! What a gift!! That lower opening was biggest gift in years!! Good trading to all!! nolan