Technically: What happened today?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by toc, Sep 1, 2010.

  1. Your statement is internally inconsistent. If charts allow you to make an "educated guess" about what might happen, then that IS predictive ability.

    The reality is that certain features of charts are predictive in nature while others are not. I've seen very little evidence that the "head and shoulders" pattern has any predictive capability. So OP shouldn't be surprised that the market cared not one whit for his nearly complete H&S formations, and decided to go up instead.

    One bug in classical TA is that it has two or more explanations for everything, If the market trends away from current values, it's a trendline/channel. If it goes back to previous values, it's support/resistance. If it changes direction, that's a H&S pattern. Combine that excess of explanations with multiple time frames, and you always have arguments for the market going whichever direction you want. The solution of course is to codify each of these explanations so you can say with 100% confidence whether it apply to a given chart, and then test them all to see which ones are predictive and which ones are nonsense. I see no evidence OP has done any of that work.
     
    #11     Sep 1, 2010
  2. nLepwa

    nLepwa

    Zoom in or zoom out.

    You can always find a "technical" explanation for any price movement.
     
    #12     Sep 1, 2010
  3. Theres no head and shoulders here. It's fake.
     
    #13     Sep 1, 2010
  4. You asked so I'll give you my opinion, though I know you don't want mine.

    Until a major support level is broken, price will consolidate here or move up to challenge last resistance levels.

    [​IMG]
     
    #14     Sep 1, 2010