I looked on a mid-level volume-based chart (i.e., 1 price bar = X contracts traded) last night on the CL (and the big moves this morning) and you guys are right. A simple 9/18 ema cross and 1st pullback to the 9 ema will get you in early on great moves. A strong trend will only get pullbacks to the 9 ema and the choppier ones will tend to tap the 18 ema more. That trade in decent trends shouldn't need more than 8-10 ticks to the opposite side of the 18 ema for a stop-loss. Actually, it looks like price going more than 6 ticks past the 18 ema is a warning that the trend leg (from a higher timeframe like the 5 min) is just about over. Of course, all of this is predicated on picking a higher volatility instrument which trends well (CL, GC, 6E (worst of the 3)). And sure, just about everything out there works in strong trends, but visually, this is as easy as it gets for finding limit-order based pullback entries with tight stops (e.g. <= 10 ticks on the CL). It also looks like (another) good way to add on in strong trends. Just keep adding on 9 ema pullbacks, looking for 90 - 150 ticks off of your initial entry. On the CL, that would equate to $2000 - $5000 on 1 contract add-ons. You'd be holding about 7 contracts by the time you got to 1.5 pts off of your initial entry and your break even stop loss would be way out of jeopardy (about 75 ticks away when you're at 1.5 pts holding 7). Donna mentioned something very similar to this before she left about the CL where several in her Skype room were using a 20 ema off of a 1 min chart and pinging pullbacks in strong trends with a 1-contract $400 goal per day and doing well. Same kind of thing going on with this method with the addition that the 9/18 cross alerts you to start looking for the initial entry attempt. [I define a mid-level CL volume chart as a setting between 300 - 500 contracts per price bar]
I'm sure Goldman Sachs will be all over these rules!. Higher Education is the key!. Ask emg, he knows!.
I bet big money would dream of such a liquidity so they could trade like this. But no fate for them. Maybe some day, when they discover inter-galactic exchange and will look like retail traders there. Well, better for us, small parasites on the back of elephants. Such a great bull flag breakout occurred as a second leg off the bottom.
When you see a falling wedge the odds favor a break to the upside and this gives a chance to look at the set up on the bigger charts (1 - 4 hr) and if they look ready for reversal you can often catch the big trade on the 1m chart. My entry on this was 1.3051 for 130+ pips
The level was critical and the 1m set up was very easy. The key was to read the probability for a big run and sit tight. Oh and I called this live in our trading room and called for the trade of the day and the 4hr chart to reverse. Pity the room is free - should think of a charging plan of $500 pm for new members
suuure it was..... if you don't call it out in real-time didn't you don't get credit....just sayin.. nice trade setup anyway...
So blind. He calls out his trades every night. You're just not there to see it. Probably because you post here and he posts there. There's a big difference. Think about that for a second.......
Yup, he sure did call it in realtime, just not here. Even in advance, if seriously, way before realtime entry was fine tuned.
' Did you reference the xx50 level in addition to the 2B? I caught the same move but used a 123 reversal on the 1 minute.