I am having trouble putting you log into Paint to annotate it. So, I am going to work from your annotated chart and see if I can reason through with you how the day began. If you have mandel on ignore, take him off so you can read his combo of a plea and his current level of phishing. Here is the open and I made a few comments. I will post an advanced beginner's chart as well so we can see an uncluttered and accurate chart that will reflect where you will be next Wednesday.
What is an expert trader going to do with these first four bars? See the comments. You are a beginner and your objective is to get into the market because that ius a requirement to make money. You did get in today and you entered based on your logging notes after you annotated. One priority was needed to do the entry: the volume and price had to be corrolated and this means on the same side of the fence. They had to be in agreeement. How do you get that to happen? This is difficult. A person has to log what is going on according to the PV relationship instead of anything else. The biggest "anything else" is doing what you did in science labs all your life. you recorded data to be able to make a graph of the variables in the experiment. trading is much easier. The graph is given to you right off and you are assembling the ARGUMENTS TO DO YOUR ANALYSIS AND DRAW THE CONCLUSIONS OF THE EXPERIMENT. Experiments end with conclusions in the Scientific Method. In trading, however, a person uses conclusions to take ACTIONS to achieve the GOAL of trading which is to make money. Mandel says, remarkably, that you do not know UP from DOWN. Thank God. He thinks SCT deals with up and down and he thinks making money deals with UP and DOWN. The question is, however, is price moving away from a RTL and how do you know if it is? Getting a platform to use color to tell you this is a challenge since salesmen sell platforms and programmer create them so salesmen can sell them. We all have to superseed the present level of that dilemma others have with critical thinking on our part. You are waking up quite rapidly. Extremely rapidly and you do prioritize your requirements for critical thinking. This makes you different than mandel since he is the victim of sales pitches from platform sales people. Too bad for him. Advanced Experts and experts are entering on non PV data because the PV data said, immediately go to your tape set of non PV data subset collecting places on your display. advanced Intermediates and Intermediates were using PV and non PV indicators that are leading indicators of ES price and volume. Beginner internal traders are loking at traverses and the internals of traverses. Advance beginners are entering easily because they trade traverses and the market, after synch has a traverse (dom or non dom ) sitting there to trade. You as a beginner, every day see bars of volume that are filling opening orders of the CW world. Every day. You see the volume starting at over twice Extreme and and then within 15 minutes it has dropped all the way down to just under twice the Extreme. I will post a little block of knowlege color chart of how these guys all stack up and how the learning curve is working for them. As you begin to note symbolically in V and P what you need to do analysis of the PV relationship, you will also build a vocabulary of the Remarks part of analysis. I am giving you some observations (monitoring info) that will displace what is now your first recourse (what your mind seemed to percieve) as demonstrated and reported today. Mandel want me to give you the "what to do now" type answers. What he also wants is to learn how to use what you will be using to change the way he is trading now (See his P and L in the P/L thread everyday). For now consider black raging volume, All bars trending with HH and HL's, BO's on each bar at the tops and every bar expanding with Volatility Expansion and the tape showing VE as something a beginner can count upon. If you see it log it. If you logged it, do the MODE and Remarks and put ENT in the D column and fill in the A and the # of contracts. Go back to day 1 and start by pulling the cover from left to right. Now lets do the Einstein part of trading. You are freaked out when you enter the market. You leave quite rapidly as we see by between the rows exits. You do not stay in long enough for price to go either against you or for you. You did keep up the pain and suffering for many bars though. Then you concluded that you did not "know that you know". Make a ratio of the average of the absolute value of your trades and compare it to any channel trip from point 1 to the FTT (the long diagonal of the channel). This is the Einstein part of becoming an SCT beginner. You dump the entry/exit mind set and go to a Hold/Reversal mind set. Today started with some common sense things that a person can count on. ....black raging volume, All bars trending with HH and HL's, BO's on each bar at the tops and every bar expanding with Volatility Expansion and the tape showing VE ....... I think these little items are all on the same side of the fence. As a beginner, this is what makes Channel trading from point 1 possible. You, as a beginner, get in the market and you get in on the right side of the market. As you notice we get the channel set up within 30 to 40 minutes of open. All the time you are annotating and logging and the channel manifests. NB: What about the raging volume B2B? And no PACE change to get the B2B. I suggest you annotate it, log it and as usual hold through it long as you make money. Where did it come from? the market was doing a raging business and business picked up after the open. If you can get in the market, then we have to deal with staying in until we get an FTT. you can learn that doing the drills over the weekend. I want to post a few more helpful things in the meantime.
A while back we dealt with a golden circle where several Q's came up about a sticky part of the chart. The golden circle area turned out to be a new poiont 3 of a Channel. Here the situation is similar and the point 3 is arriving under some conditions that required a close look see to deal with the opportunity. I will change a few previously drawn lines and use some circles for discussion. Between bar 20 and bar 39 the PACE change od volume is a very significant consideration. This causes an internal from bar 26 to bar 30 and a BO of the FTP on bar 31. For a beginner who is looking for point 3 while holding long, this can cause some sweat. By annotating the tapes, the considerations are less challenging. Also it is important to get the second traverse in place since this a precursor for the point 3.
This is something that I get caught off guard by more often then not. Would I be far off base thinking that peak volume negates the need for future dominants to develop?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from jack hershey: False trades for beginners are usually related to failures of dominants to develop after a post FTT retrace to the RTL where BO occurs. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is something that I get caught off guard by more often then not. Would I be far off base thinking that peak volume negates the need for future dominants to develop? The Channel sequence is point1, point 2, point 3 and the FTT. A traverse occurs most of the time for each profit taking when trading traverses. Lets look at the Gaussians associated with each traverse segment. There is one half of a Gaussian for the segment going from point 2 to point 3 and the segment going from point 3 to the FTT. If more points are involved after point 3 and before the segment going to the FTT, they each have one half a Gaussian. These segments are dominant or non dominant and the job is done for trading such a segment. Going from the FTT (which begins at a peak volume) to point 2 is different than all other trading segments. This segment holds through two halves of a Gaussian: first a non dominant and then a dominant. A trough is in the middle as a R2R or a B2B. Also this trough is associated with the BO of the channel and it marks the end of the channel overlap. So far, this segment has gotten most of the attention since it is, by far the most complicated. We will deal with this on the beginner level, advanced beginner level where traverses are first traded and on expert level where trading tapes is the modus. The same sequences happen for each fractal traded. The same three profit segments occur for each repetition of the sequential pattern. When a person examines PA trading, the handicap of using price patterns alone becomes very apparent. Take the 3BR, for example. 3BR's happen under two circumstances. One kind of circumstance is the point 1, point 2 and point 3. These are clearly successful PA trades if you "know that you know" They are profit taking points on turning points of segments which are dominant or nondominant ending times. The other kind of 3BR does NOT involve times where segments are ending. PA cannot differentiate nor can the mind of a PA type trader. You can also review the 2bar with opposite BO pattern of three bars. For us in SCT trading using the PV relationship these are differntiable as to whether they are segment ending or not. PA traders cannot tell by any form of differentiation. That brings up the situation in between the FTT and point 2 for the PA trader. If you review the threads in PA or N00bie career threads you will see a lot of Q's on the difference between a retrace and a reversal. PA traders cannot differentiate the differences of one from another. Why not? In SCT we know that in going from the FTT (point 1) to point 2 it happens in a sequence of two parts: first a retrace that ends and then a reversal following the end of the retrace on the BO of the RTL. Just before, in SCT, when a person comes to point 3 or the BO, the price movement looks the same. In SCT we know which is which. In PA they are identical and often have patterns like either three bar formation mentioned above. In PA the combination of point 2 then the FTT is often referred to as a double bottom. As the double bottom formation looks like it is appearing, to a PA trader it could turn out to be either a double bottom or a zig zag pattern that did NOT form a double bottom. PA traders then do a "wait" on the sidelines until the double bottom later breaks out a bove the W or middle price peak in the formation. SCT is always in and using Hold/Reversals. In PA the sidelines are often used until what is called a high probability set up occurs. SCT is a horizontal strategy and PA is a vertical strategy. It is obvious that using the two variables of the market P and V is a good place to begin to learn. People most often do not start with PA trading. They arrive at PA trading after they have exhausted their informal learning process. Sidelining is the major strategy of PA trading. Look at the pages 3 and 4 of the 66 page AHG description. In PA trading two major compensations for the risks of PA trading are the substitutes for NOT using BOTH variables of the market; these are: money management and stops. In SCT we use RTL's on everylevel of fractal. A stop is further away from price than the RTL at all times. In SCT a trader earns the right to add contracts with successful annotating, logging MADA, trading and profits. Why was susanaDT dissatisfied with SCT as compared to PA trading? It ws an issue for her of the quality of the "evidence". She values prints at the end of the day. Boot camp is NOT designed to create prints as the "evidence". Critical thinking on the part of the participantis the evidence for success in SCT. As each day goes by, it will be seen that SCT traders are in the market at all times a PA trader is trading. Further SCT, is also in the market when PA traders are sidelined for the reasons they choose to sideline. Annotating and logging are the tools that bring the pieces together for doing the MADA which yields the hold/reversal timing. If a person, in SCT, acts too early or if a sequence becomes flawed, he "knows that he knows" and takes a small profit and gets to the correct side of the market that has just appeared.