One of the aspects of trading for those who follow the CW is prediction. Historically in your past and in that of those you worked with then was the CW aspect of prediction The nature of what you and these people did to build their minds was, in part, prediction based and prediction is part of how your mind became differentiated.. Today you used the word prediction in one of your comments. The reason you used it is because it is part of your first recourse vocabulary. As may be seen in many of your debriefings and also in how you orient to the MADA, somewhere in this mix is the entry point Beg9inning of your thinking that relates and opens up the whole spectrum of what is in the future and how your deciding over and over what that is. What is in the future and how the future will unfold is part of what ahd how you do things. I mentioned the advantages of doing PVT before doing the SCT to you in the past. On the forums of ET we worked with PVT first for a couple of years before thesyllabus of SCT for the year of 2007, a twelve month learning period. As it turns out the future is not where we help people to learn. We never address learning how to predict nor how to deal with the future as part of decision making. Ive been through many aspects of the mind and how the mind works with you. I also worked to develop the theme of Tell's>> acceptance>>> trust >>> value as a non intellectual (and therefore not mind oriented) process and pursuit. For you, your continual striving to predict the markets comes down to your effort to circumvent a process of being able to have a partnership with the market that deals with Trust. You may want to see how many ways and how much time you spent giving priority to not monitoring the market and to, instead, doing something else. No one has made you trust anything in all probability. Always underlying what you are doing or thinking about is the effort you make to try to "know what is ahead". That is your goal it turns out. You must know what is going to happen. End effects happen. Normally there is an effort to further and further handling these. It has been called "iterative refinement" and what a person does to refine is build on what he has and what he uses as a first recourse. Today, we got to see a news item hit the market. News causes a lot of price change. Price change is used to make money. Or to put it another way: making money can only be done through participating in price change. CW holds that stay out of markets is a great idea at times that are risky. CW believes, as do you, that risk is greatest when a person doesn't know what is going to happen. SCT trading never deals with what is going to happen. SCT only deals in the present and the present is not a matter of prediction. What is the present "a matter of"? In terms of human operations (how a human operates) it comes down to the Flight or Flight response and the stress as pect as depicted by the Bohr Effect. Classically "fear of the future" is the theme of your efforts. Lets look at the four elements in the order of their occurance. Seeing the market was difficult until a week or so ago when you go a computer and chose to use a platform for at least the ES. Up to this point in your life you had good reason to follow the CW of not trusting the markets. Seeing the markets involvesletting the "tell" of the market come into your mind. This is sensory and the senses are what evokes the Fight or Flight Response AND the Bohr Effect. Most people sit and look at the visual display continually and continually are in a state of Fight or Flight Response; as the Boy Scouts say they are prepared to fight or flee. What if? What if you could accept what the market is "TELL'ing? Would you not have the years of prediction differentiation as what is spinning around in your mind---would you not have to use that first recourse you continually choose? MADA has only one sensory component. You can turn away from the display after you have M complete. Could you accept the M of the display? The reason I ask is that I believe the display has great value and this great value over rules all else. If I work with a person who smokes, he and I know we can have a smoke or go grab a cup of coffee down the block after we have looked at the screen. Not because of a prediction we mutually make. It is because of the great valuation we put on the tell of the market that we totally accept as part of the deal. Getting the tell and accepting it puts you in a place where the Fight or Flight response and the Bohr Effect is not on the table. Smoking a cigarette or getting a cup of coffeee is a condition where persons are in a state of acceptance of their sensory input of the tell of the market AND accepting the Tell. This is where trust can enter the picture at some point. In a military boot camp they deal with tell and acceptance. There is a very good reason why US Marines guard the White House and the EOP people there. No one but US Marines can better guard the White House. Marine recruits get a chance to sense tells. They are "informed" by sensing tells. You had a couple of months of provisional experiences where you were a twitter with getting confirmations. Marine recruits are never provisional and seeking confirmation. They are fully embued with sensory tells. Marine recruits "accept". They know they accept because there is no moment when there is any other alternative. You didn't. You dealt in the provisional and tentativeness and not imersion because you stay in the Fight or Flight Response when you are getting sensory input. To get the value of the market tell to appear happens after trust appears. What thing that you sense has the most value at this point? This post ends just about here. I trade with sports memory. This may also be called total coherence. Elsewhere I have stated that I do not need price to trade. I don't. But I DO use the P, V relationship to trade because my mind is differentiated by iterative refinement to HAVE the P, V relationship as my first recourse. BE DO HAVE BE means have trust appear. There is no way to make money with prediction. Predicting is an illusion. That is what is in your mind; it is there for sure and what that is, is something other than DO'ing and HAV'ing.
Ok, I used the wrong word. Either that, or I'm mistaking anticipation, sequences and WMCN for prediction, because often, that's what it feels like. Knowing that price will stop before a certain point, or that a short traverse will be followed by a long one. I received a suggestion from one of the gang to draw lines and channels before they occur, hence my extended preflights. Earlier in the process, I was staring at the forming price bars. Now, I spend more time with my eyes closed, or looking at the EmWave display. I find myself glancing at the screen, mostly at volume and the countdown timer, although I'll pay more attention to price as the bar approaches completion. The EmWave tells me I'm in the green for the majority of the time. My cross-annotation of the YM and ES is beginning to feel more fluid and solid (no oxymoron intended), and the inter-relationship is speaking louder. I can easily leave the computer or do other things, although admittedly to do so would feel like slacking. If nothing else, it certainly feels like I'm making progress. I'm genuinely not sure what I should be doing differently. (n.b. I don't have years of CW trading experience. All in all, nine months max.)
Coherence and certainty. From a monitoring standpoint, volume. I acknowledge that (especially today) I extrapolated gaussians from the YM chart...
Main Entry: pre·dict Pronunciation: \pri-ˈdikt\ Function: verb Etymology: Latin praedictus, past participle of praedicere, from prae- pre- + dicere to say â more at diction Date: 1609 transitive verb : to declare or indicate in advance ; especially : foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason intransitive verb : to make a prediction synonyms see foretell Main Entry: an·tic·i·pate Pronunciation: \an-ˈti-sə-ˌpât\ Function: verb Inflected Form(s): an·tic·i·pat·ed; an·tic·i·pat·ing Etymology: Latin anticipatus, past participle of anticipare, from ante- + -cipare (from capere to take) â more at heave Date: 1532 transitive verb 1 : to give advance thought, discussion, or treatment to 2 : to meet (an obligation) before a due date 3 : to foresee and deal with in advance : forestall 4 : to use or expend in advance of actual possession 5 : to act before (another) often so as to check or counter 6 : to look forward to as certain : expect intransitive verb : to speak or write in knowledge or expectation of later matter synonyms see foresee, prevent ...
Thanks, Charts. I definitely needed to clarify the distinction between anticipation and prediction. Now I need to apply it, rather than just appreciate it, and stay in the NOW. Woke up late today with a splitting headache (no alcohol involved) so had been avoiding the computer. Here's a quick hindsight catch-up chart... <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2225610>
Anticipation vs Prediction To look forward to as certain, without declaring or indicating in advance.
Zoom-out to level 3, with the addition of ES 5-minute Traverse level gaussians. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2225767>