I've taken the opposite position...I believe the recent uplift was a correction move, in part fueled by the US stock market rallies/less than expected rate cut. It tried to break and hold 100 but couldn't. I'm looking at a descending triangle that looks about ready to break... <a href="http://s24.photobucket.com/albums/c26/sammybiker/?action=view¤t=decusdjpy.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c26/sammybiker/decusdjpy.jpg" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a> My entry was just above 99, s/l just above 100.6 and t/p is 97.7ish. Thoughts?
Update: I took another short @ 99.80 (seeing that we could not break and hold steady above 100, nor reach higher than 3/18's break to 100.4) and closed both shorts out @ 99.20 for +45 pips net. The range continues to get smaller and I've been unable to access my broker at work the last couple of days so...I'd rather be on the safe side. Here is the progress that the USD/JPY made over night...any comments on what I'm seeing? <a href="http://s24.photobucket.com/albums/c26/sammybiker/?action=view¤t=usdjpycopy.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c26/sammybiker/usdjpycopy.jpg" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a> My bottom line still remains...the US is weak, we have yet to have a solid break and close above 100 and until then, I'm looking to short the USD/JPY.
Overnight News Recap: IMF Cuts Global, U.S. Growth Forecasts 06:46 04/02 (CEP News) - The IMF continued to trim growth forecasts for several major global economies on Wednesday morning, citing a 25% chance of a global recession, while markets received falling money supply data from Japan and the UK. The IMF projects a 25% chance that global growth will be under 3.0% in 2008, indicating recessionary levels, according to a report released early on Wednesday morning. Nevertheless, the growth forecast remains at 3.7% for 2008 and 3.8% for 2009, with inflation relatively high. The U.S. economy is showing a sharp contraction with GDP expected at 0.5% in 2008 and 0.6% in 2009. In January, the U.S. was expected to grow 1.5% in 2008. The euro zone economies are expected to grow 1.3% in 2008 and 1.1% in 2009. The IMF said the Fed's rate cuts were justified to avoid recession and noted the European Central Bank had some room to ease. On currencies, the report states the USD remains strong relative to fundamentals and noted the Chinese yuan was "substantially undervalued." The IMF also projects a "challenging year" for Asian economies in 2008, with Japan expected to grow 1.4% in 2008 and 1.5% in 2009, China expected to grow 9.3% in 2008 and 9.5% in 2009, and India to grow 7.9% in 2008 and 8.0% in 2009. Speaking from Beijing, U.S. treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called the IMF forecasts overblown, saying that although the U.S. was merely experiencing a difficult time, he had great confidence in the strength of the country. He pledged the current administration would act flexibly on the recent housing problems but said re-pricing in the sector was inevitable. He also said that Chinese officials needed no warnings of an economic slowdown in the United States. Meanwhile, the annual Japanese monetary base was unchanged in March after growing 0.1% in February. The growth of UKâs broad measure of money supply, the M4, came in at 0.2% in February in month-over-month terms, down from 1.6% in January, according to final figures for the month published by the Bank of England on Wednesday. Bank of England figures suggest February's growth was the lowest monthly growth since June 2005. The figure was revised down from a previous estimate of a 0.3% rise. It brought the year-over-year rate for February down to 12.4%, revised up from the earlier estimate of 12.3% but below Januaryâs 13.3%. M4 lending growth decreased to £17.4 billion in February from £20.6 billion in January. Figures for both months were revised from the previous estimates of £16.4 billion and £21.4 billion respectively. Elsewhere in the data release, the household sectorâs holdings of the M4 saw an increase by £5.5 billion in February as the annual growth rate slowed to 8.6%. Excluding the effects of securitizations, M4 lending to the household sector rose by £10.4 billion with the annual growth rate increasing to 8.6%. Figures released by the Bank of England on Wednesday state that UK housing equity withdrawal in the fourth quarter fell to £7.3 billion, down from an upwardly-revised third quarter figure of £10.8 billion. UK net consumer credit showed a surprise rise over February, coming in at £2.4 billion up from £0.9 billion in January, while net lending on secured dwellings came in at £9.8 billion, up from Januaryâs revised figure of £8.3 billion, according to figures published on Wednesday by the Bank of England. January's net lending had originally been reported at £8.4 billion. Credit card lending rose to £350 million from £120 million, while the "other loans" category grew £2.0 billion in January. Meanwhile, net mortgage lending grew £7.4 billion, the same as in January, but well below the £10.0 billion lending amount in February 2007. On the mortgage approvals front, approved applications slipped to 73,000 from January's 74,000. UK mortgage approvals in February via building societies were valued at £3.411 billion down from £4.296 billion in January, according to figures published on Wednesday by the countryâs Building Societies Association (BSA). Elsewhere in its monthly survey, the BSA said building societies' gross lending for the month came in at £3.86 billion, down on January's £4.10 billion and the £4.2 billion figure recorded over the corresponding month in 2007. Net lending for February stood at £974 million versus £1.43 billion in January and £1.47 billion recorded over the month the year before. The UKâs purchasing managersâ index of the construction sector for March saw its first contraction in over six years, the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) said on Wednesday. CIPS figures reveal that construction PMI fell to a level of 47.2 in March from 52.4 in February, the first contraction since November 2001. The level was well below market expectations for a decline to 51.5. Euro zone PPI rose 0.6% month-over-month in February, in line with expectations, while January's 0.8% increase was revised up to a 0.9% gain. Annual producer prices rose 5.3%, just higher than expectations of a 5.2% increase while January's 4.9% increase was revised up to a 5.0% rise. The European Central Bank allotted â¬25 billion in a six-month refinancing tender at a marginal rate of 4.55%. ©CEP Newswires - ©CEP News Ltd. 2008.
Ok; today's Short JPY was great move; it has taken out my positions and Looking to Long Yen in Next week; Good Luck.