Technical Forecasts In Currency Markets

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 22, 2012)

Despite the holidays in the US and Japan, there are some interesting economic figures that would play some roles in the markets on Thursday. Most of these would affect the Euro, and therefore affect some other currencies. French Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, EU Economic Summit, etc., would have effects on the EUR pairs.

EURUSD: After some period of consolidation, the EURUSD pair broke upwards (just to allow further confirmation of the bullish signal that has already been in place). It is expected that this bullish trend will continue on Thursday. Should this prove to be true, the resistance level at 1.2850 would be broken upwards.

USDCHF: The pair continued its bearish run on Wednesday – something that is expected to continue today. Both the 2 EMAs and the RSI 14 period are giving an indication of a bearish signal. Should this weakness continue in its slow and steady manner, the price would touch the support level at 0.9350.

GBPUSD: At last, this market shows a precise decision. After much dithering, the price broke upwards as The EMA 11 crossed its EMA 56 counterpart to the upside. We should note that the Williams’ % Range had been in a perpetual overbought position prior to this. Since the price is now pushing against the zone at 1.5950, it would go to the distribution zone at 1.6000 when the 1.5950 zone is breached to the upside.

USDJPY: The USDJPY, which is in a serious bullish mode at the present, has continued to break one supply territory after the other. Right now, the price seems to be targeting the supply zone at 83.00, providing that it could cleanly leave the zone at 82.50 and go further up. We should not forget that the RSI 14 period has long been in the overbought area (i.e. the area above the level 70), therefore, a temporary pullback should not surprise us.

EURJPY: Since the low of 100.32 that was reached at the middle of the last week, the EURJPY has moved upwards by more than 500 pips. The bullish bias is very much noteworthy and has the potential to keep on doing so, especially given the remarkable weakness in the Yen. However, it should be noticed that the Williams’ % Range is perpetually in an overbought territory. So a minor pullback in this northward journey should not be a big deal, particularly as the price approaches the supply zone at 106.00.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 23, 2012)

This week has been bullish for most pairs/crosses. Even when some hesitant currency instruments broke out of their ranges eventually, it was in the direction of the trends. The Yen and the Greenback continue to be weak - a fact that is still valid even in the face of the present corrections.

EURUSD: The EURUSD moved upwards slowly ands steadily, in spite of the equilibrium phase that was seen earlier this week. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, while the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. Right now, the price is trying to push against the resistance line at 1.2900 and it would need to break it above before the upward journey can continue.

USDCHF: The USDCHF pair has fallen by more than 100 pips this week. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, as the RSI period 14 is bellow the level 50. The price has almost breached the support level at 0.9350, and would possibly go down lower, reaching another support level at 0.9300.

GBPUSD: Given the weakness of the USD and the fact that the GBP is not that hopeless, this pair broke out reluctantly from its recent range. There is a bullish signal in place; looking at the position of the EMAs and the price. Even the Williams’ % Range dropped down a bit from the overbought region and is now heading upwards. The price is having some challenge staying around the price zone at 1.5950. Should this be broken upwards, the distribution zone at 1.6000 would be next point of call.

USDJPY: On the USDJPY, both the last week and this week have been bullish, except for the present temporary pullback. This is no surprise, since it was anticipated. The RSI 14 had been above the level 70 (overbought region) for a long time. It is expected that the demand territory at 82.00 should check any further bearish threat; and that would be a good purchasing area.

EURJPY: On this cross, what could be called a pullback is something negligible. As it was forecasted, the price reached the zone at 106.00 and began to hover. The bullish signal is still in place, and the Williams’ % Range is still in the overbought region. Today would prove the next direction in the price, but it could go to the supply zone at 106.50.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 26, 2012)

Last week was bullish, and this week is expected to continue to be so; unless some drastic fundamentals boost the stamina of the Yen and the Greenback. There could be some temporary corrections before the prices move up according to the prevailing trends.

EURUSD: The USD moved up by more than 230 pips last week, plus the indicators on the chart are giving nice a long signal. The RSI is now in the overbought region, which might lead to a possible pullback in the price. Should this happen, it would be temporary. The resistance line at 1.3000 would be breached to the upside this week.

USDCHF: This pair dropped by close to 180 pips last week. This is something that could continue happening this week, for the indicators on the chart support this bias. The RSI 14 that stays below the oversold level means there could be some short-lived rally in the price. The price currently stays below the 0.9300, and could reach the support level at 0.9250.

GBPUSD: After much hesitation and the northward probability, the GBPUSD finally shot up on Friday. That day alone, it moved by more than 100 pips. The bullish confirmation is without argument, thought it should not be forgotten that the Williams’ % Range remains perpetually in the overbought territory.

USDJPY: The USDJPY is also bullish. Should this scenario keeps going on in this week, the price would reach the supply territory at 83.00. The RSI period 14 was recently above the level 70, i.e. the overbought region, before going below it. Nevertheless, as long as it remains above the level 50, the bullish bias is valid.

EURJPY: This cross moved significantly last week – by more than 330 pips. This makes it more than a rise of more than 650 pips in the last two weeks. Trend riders, congrats! The EMAs 11 and 56 are sending a strong bullish bias, while the Williams’ % Range remains long in the overbought region. The supply zone at 107.00 is vulnerable.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 26, 2012)

Since Monday, the markets have been in equilibrium phases. Right now, there are potential corrections and pullbacks on the charts; developments that would enable new orders at important price levels. The major biases are still intact.

EURUSD: The EURUSD consolidated throughout Monday, and is trying to get corrected lower today. This is understandable, since there ought to be a pullback in an uptrend, though short-lived it may be. The price may not go below the support level at 1.2950. The Bullish bias is still valid.

USDCHF: The bearish trend on the chart is still valid here. The indicators still give a strong southward possibility, and therefore, the present rally is something that should not cause a concern (for the RSI 14 period has been in an oversold region for a long time). The present rally in is not expected to go above the resistance line at 0.9300.

GBPUSD: Despite the current equilibrium phase on the chart, there is a strong barrier to any possible bearish threat at the accumulation zone of 1.6000. The EMAs still support the bullish scenario, even as the Williams’ % Range refuses to leave its overbought territory, i.e., above – 20. A good buy level is at the 1.6000.

USDJPY: Here too, in the midst of a bullish scenario, the level at 82.00 is doing a good job in checking further bearish attempts. The ‘buy’ signal is still valid – the price is still above the EMA and the RSI still manages to stay above the level 50. A good area to go long would be the area at 82.00.

EURJPY: When the Williams’ % Range came down from the overbought region on the 4-chart that represents this cross, it was not a surprise. There must be bearish candles in an uptrend, and that is what is being experienced right now. The uptrend on the chart is till valid. The correction is not expected to go below the demand zone at 106.00. If the price is able to break the demand zone at 107.00 to the upside, it would signal the renewal of the extant scenario.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 28, 2012)

Except in certain cases, the markets are still in equilibrium phases. Prices hover between resistance and support levels: there would be breaks above or below any of these levels before next directions in the markets can be determined. However, the major biases are still valid.

EURUSD: There was a moderate bearish correction on this pair yesterday, but the bullish outlook remains valid: the EMA 11 is still above the EMA 56. The RSI 14 period is also above the level 50, despite pointing downwards. It is hoped that this bearish correction would be checked at the support line of 1.2900.

USDCHF: There was a moderate rally on the USDCHF, though the bearish outlook remains extant. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI 14 period is below the level 50 – in spite of its heading upwards. Further rally in this market is expected to be checked at 0.9350.

GBPUSD: The Cable is still in a conspicuous equilibrium phase. This is expected to continue until there is a break below the accumulation zone at 1.6000 or distribution zone at 1.6050. It is highly possible that the accumulation zone at 1.6000 would check any further bearish threat. The bullish signal is still valid on the chart.

USDJPY: The market still consolidates – as the price still stays above the EMA 56. The RSI 14 period also still stays above the level 50. This means that an upward break above the supply territory at 82.50 is still more probable. The demand territory at 82.00 is still expected to check any bearish threat effectively.

EURJPY: In this bullish market, the EMA 11 stays above the EMA 56, as the market stays in a sideways range. The Williams’ % Range is trying to head down, showing that bears are trying to gain some influence in the near-term. The price is not expected to dive below the zone at 106.00. A rise in price is anticipated.

 

EUR/USD is now at 1.2960. I am shorting it between this price, and 1.2970 in case it does not touch 1.2970 before it move down. How much should I expect to lose before I see a profit?

 

this is not a talking thread. It is just a thread for one guy to post what he thinks it is going to do.

He still hasn't figured out that whatever EUR/USD does, USD/CHF is going to do the opposite.

 

How did you know I posted here?

PS: It is now at 1.2951/52. If they bounce it up now, would it break 1.2960/touch 1.2970, or would it be just a fake bounce made by a robot or a stupid human?

 

I'm long EUR/USD and have been for quite a while. I go anywhere there is even a sliver of hope somebody says it is going up.

 

The question is NOT whether you were long, short, or nothing, but what you expect going forward at current price.