Technical Forecasts In Currency Markets

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 6, 2012)

The bearish pressures are now vivid on 4-hour charts and other relevant timeframes, as the Greenback shows more strength. Most other currency instruments that are paired against the Greenback cannot withstand its strength at the moment.

EURUSD: The price is currently trading below the resistance line at 1.2800. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, while the RSI 14 period is currently oversold. The sell signal is clean, though there may be some occasional reversals on the way.

USDCHF: The resistance level at 0.9450 is currently under siege. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, as the RSI is exploring the overbought region. The buy signal is clean.

GBPUSD: The price on the Cable is now below the distribution zone at 1.6000 – which is a good psychological level. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, while the Williams’ % Range is perpetually around the oversold territory. The price could reach the distribution zone at 1.5950 today, should the bearish pressure continue.

USDJPY: It was said yesterday that this pair should be traded with a great caution. The pullback on this pair has become a kind of protracted; something that may result in a new signal if it were to continue as such. I would prefer to wait for a bearish signal before going short.

EURJPY: Though the Williams’ % Range is now in the oversold territory (and it may remain as such for longer), the signal on this pair is now clear – SELL. The EMA 11 is below its EMA 56 counterpart. The price seems headed for the demand zone at 102.00.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 7, 2012)

The currency markets are now trading in pullbacks and corrections, given the current political developments in the USA. Some markets even traded sideways – with no clear direction. Nevertheless, this phase would soon be over.

EURUSD: Here, we can see that further bearish attempt has been rejected at the support line of 1.2800. Much hesitation occurred around this level before the market corrected to the upside. The RSI period 14 is heading up from its oversold territory, but given the position of the EMAs, it can be said that the bearish trend is still intact.

USDCHF: The USDCHF presently has some difficulty in breaking the resistance level at 0.9450 to the upside. The price is currently in a correction, as the RSI 14 period heads down from the overbought region. The bullish signal is still valid.

GBPUSD: On this pair, while the Williams’ % Range is trying to leave the oversold zone, the market price itself is trying to have some upward reversal. The price is reverting back to that important level at 1.6000, making an attempt to breach it upwards. The sell signal is still intact, nevertheless.

USDJPY: On this market, the EMA 56 is a kind of demand territory in itself, for the price has consistently refused to go down below it. Buyers would be advised to trade this market with some caution (the trend would soon be over). But for now, the bullish trend still holds.

EURJPY: The current development on this cross poses a precarious condition to the new sell signal generated on it. The supply zone has been breached to the upside 103.00, as the Williams’ % Range points upwards. Should this development continue further today, the present bearish signal would be rendered invalid.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 9, 2012)

The markets conditions this week have been intriguing so far. There were corrections that gave speculators nice opportunities to enter at better prices. There could be more corrections today, as profit-taking activities would be effected.

EURUSD: The EURUSD fell by roughly 100 pips this week. The resistance line at 1.2750 remains adamant – being a threat to further bearish possibility. However the signal remains bearish, and as long as the bias is bearish, one would do well to look for shorting opportunities only.

USDCHF: This pair rose by roughly 80 pips this week. It is right now around the level at 0.9450. We can note that there is a consolidation phase around this price level. The coming pressure would ultimately determine whether the price would continue going up or whether it would nose-dive. Nevertheless, the bullish continuation probability is strong.

GBPUSD: After breaking the distribution zone at 1.6000 to the downside, the cable has found it very difficult to plunge lower. The Williams % Range is headed up from the oversold territory, but the EMA 11 still remains below its 56 counterpart. There is still a bearish possibility.

USDJPY: There is a vivid SELL signal on the USDJPY. The price is trading below the EMA 56, as the RSI 14 period is now below the level 50. The nest price target could be 79.00.

EURJPY: The EURJPY remains bearish – it has dropped by over 190 pips this week. The price has touched the demand zone at 101.00, and its downward movement has been checked. Should the price succeed in breaching that zone downwards, the next target could be 100.50.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 13, 2012)

Most currency pairs and crosses have continued their general weakness. It seems there is no end in sight for this scenario, because the scenario could continue for the rest of today. The Greenback is currently strong.

EURUSD: The EURUSD has continued its weakness. This is expected to hold today as well. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, while the RSI 14 period is below the level 50. The next target is the support level at 1.2600.

USDCHF: This pair remains strong. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, as the RSI 14 period is above the level 50. The bullish rally is expected to continue today. The price could reach the resistance level of 1.9600 this week.

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is also weak. The weakness could continue today, since the EMA 11 remains below its EMA 56 counterpart. It would not be difficult for the price to touch the accumulation zone at 1.5850.

USDJPY: The slight correction in this market simply enabled speculators to short at slightly higher prices, when the market was still showing some southward determination. This is expected to continue – a bearish signal. The pair is still trading below the EMA 56.

EURJPY: As it is true of most JPY pairs, this cross is weak at the moment, and nothing different than that may be seen today. The EMA 11 is vividly below the EMA 56, as the William’s % Range period 20 is in the oversold region. The demand zone at 100.50 is being tested and could be broken downwards.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 14, 2012)

There are now serious reversals in the present market biases, while near-term resistance levels are being tested by the pairs and crosses. This would result in opportunities to sell these short-term rallies, because the major biases still hold.

EURUSD: The EURUSD is still in a bearish mode. The price is below the EMA 56, and the RSI 14 is below the level 50, though the latter appears to be heading up. The price has retraced above the market level at 1.2700 – something that would possibly be rejected at the resistance level at 1.2750.

USDCHF: This pair is still in a downward phase – in spite of the current pullback. The RSI 14 has attempted to cross the level 50 to the downside, though the price is still above the EMA 56. Since further bullish run was rejected at the resistance level at 0.9500, the price has retraced lower, nearing the resistance level at 0.9450.

GBPUSD: The rally on the Cable is negligible, and would be significant only on very small timeframes like 1-minute or 5-minute charts. The price is still below the EMA 56, hovering between the levels at 1.5900 and 1.5850. A break above either of this level would determine the next direction.

USDJPY: No matter what happens on the USDJPY, the ‘sell’ signal is still extant here. The only thing that can render it useless is when the price crosses the EMA 56 to the upside and closes above it. Until then, any rally would be considered a good shorting chance. Right now, the price has some difficulty in breaching the supply territory at 79.50 to the upside.

EURJPY: Yesterday, the EURJPY touched the demand zone at 100.50 and traded upwards, because further bearish effort was rejected at that zone. The market has traded upwards, looking forward to the supply zone at 101.50, though it is not likely that the zone would be breached. The bearish trend is yet present.

 

so, Ituglobal, I have been long EURUSD for the longest time and am losing my ass. It seems like from reading your technical forecast, I should just get long USDCHF to stop the bleeding. Do you think that would be a good idea?

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 16, 2012)

This week has featured trend reversals and continuations in some cases. In the cases of reversals, their confirmation would be established further, should the same scenario continues today. More signals have been generated essentially.

EURUSD: The EURUSD has traded upwards in most part of this week – something that poses a threat to the extant bearish bias. The bias has almost ended, and would vanish if this pair continues its upward attempts today. The RSI is already above the level 50, but the EMAs are yet to confirm the change in the trend.

USDCHF: This pair has largely corrected downwards this week. The RSI 14 is below the level 50, but the EMAs 11 and 56 are yet to cross each order in confirmation of a new bearish mode. However, should this bearish correction continues today, the downward reversal would be confirmed.

GBPUSD: On the chart representing the GBPUSD (4-hour chart). We can see that the Williams’ % Range 20 periods is trying to head out of the oversold territory. Yet, the market remains weak. No long position is recommended here right now.

USDJPY: There is a safely confirmed bearish scenario on the USDJPY (The RSI 14 period is above the level 50 and the price itself is far above the EMA 56). The price went northward yesterday until it nearly reached 81.50. The price retraced downwards a little and rested on top of the supply territory at 81.00.

EURJPY: Since Tuesday, this pair has moved upward by close to 350 pips. This is a significant occurrence; being something that has rendered the recent bearish mode totally useless. The price is currently retracing southward, and may give a new ‘buy’ opportunity at the demand zone at 103.00.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 18, 2012)

On Friday November 16, 2012, there were minor reversals and equilibrium phases in the markets. The markets might continue behaving the way they started in the middle of the last week. The prices in equilibrium phases would break out of those phases this week.

EURUSD: This market, which started trending upwards last Tuesday, bounced against the resistance line at 1.2800. Since then (particularly last Friday), the price dropped, but could not go below the resistance line at 1.2700. This week, it is a break above the level at 1.2800 or below the level at 1.2700, that would determine the eventual destination of the market.

USDCHF: The USDCHF also was able to regain some of the losses it had sustained since Tuesday last week. The price is currently resting near the support level at 0.9450. If it breaks below it, the price would go down to the support level at 0.9400; otherwise, it would go up towards 0.9500.

GBPUSD: The Cable trended down last week, but was involved in a weak rally at the latter part of that week. The price touched the zone at 1.5900 (that is where the weak rally was checked). If the price succeeds in breaking this zone to the upside, it could potentially mean the end of the bearish force.

USDJPY: The USDJPY is an example of the currency instruments that are currently caught in equilibrium zones. The price is currently above the territory at 81.00, and would need to go above the territory at 81.50 before the recent bullish attempt could continue.

EURJPY: This cross was involved in a significant bullish outbreak last week. But further bullish attempt was rejected at the supply zone of 104.00. The price retraced and touched the demand zone at 103.00. There should be a break above the zone at 104.00 or below the zone at 103.00 before the next direction could be determined. As long as the price remains between the foregoing zones, it will be in an equilibrium phase.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 20, 2012)

Essentially, the kind of the market biases that were started last week have held out till now. This shows that the new speculation opportunities that are seen on the charts are valid. Bulls are gaining back their glory.

EURUSD: The EURUSD has shown a strong determination to continue moving upwards. The RSI 14 period is far above the level 50 and is pointing towards the level 70, while the EMA 11 and 56 are aligning themselves in an effort to confirm the new northward bias. Should the northward bias continue today, it would lead to a clean bullish confirmation.

USDCHF: The price in this market is currently resting on the support level of 0.9400. If the price crosses it to the downside, the next target would be the support level at 0.9350. The RSI level 14 is far above the level at 50; going towards the level 30. The EMAs would confirm this outlook, should this scenario continue today.

GBPUSD: This weak instrument failed to trend upwards on Monday – alongside its EURUSD counterpart. Instead, it range-traded along the accumulation zone at 1.5900. In a bigger picture, the price is trying to retrace upwards: the Williams’ % Range is pointing to the overbought territory. The market might go upward toward the distribution zone at 1.5950 today.

USDJPY: The USDJPY still stays in a range, i.e. between 81.00 and 81.50. Within this range, the bulls are threatening to wield more energy. Eventually, the pair would go the way of other JPY pairs. The supply territory at 81.50 could be breached to the upside today.

EURJPY: The strong EURJPY is trying to reach for the sky. The supply zone at 104.00 was broken upwards, as the price targets the zone at 104.50. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56; while the Williams’ % Range is around the overbought region. The transaction pressure here is bullish.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 21, 2012)

The JPY pairs have continued their bullish journeys while certain pairs and crosses are still in some kind of hesitation. Nevertheless, it is expected that the trends on those other pairs/crosses would go according to the recent signals generated on them. The Greenback and the Yen are still weak.

EURUSD: The movement of the EURUSD is still indecisive – hovering around the line at 1.2800. There must be a noteworthy breakaway from this line before there is a clear direction. But the most probable breakout would be on the upside, and then the next target would be the resistance level at 1.2850.

USDCHF: The USDCHF still has some difficulty in breaking the support level at 0.9400 to the downside. The signal available on the chart is, however, bearish. And thus, it would be judiciously expected that the price would eventually succeed in breaking that support level to the downside, targeting 0.9350.

GBPUSD: The Cable is also in some equilibrium phase. The price continues to oscillate between the zones at 1.5950 and 1.5900. There must be a break above the zone at 1.5950 or below the zone at 1.5900. Then the price must close above or below any of the aforementioned zones in order to establish a clearer direction. The most probable scenario is to the downside.

USDJPY: This is a bull market. Since the technical analysis model used on the chart gave a ‘buy’ signal on November 14, 2012, the market has moved up by more than 260 pips! Right now, the market has broken the supply territory at 82.00 to the upside, and may reach the territory at 82.50 today or tomorrow. The RSI 14 period is now above the level 70, i.e. overbought region. This may cause some retracement in the price before we see any bullish continuation.

EURJPY: The EURJPY is also in a bullish phase. Since November 14, 2012, when the model on the chart gave a ‘buy’ signal, the market has moved up by more than 340 pips! The Williams’ % Range has constantly been in an overbought situation. The price is now above the demand zone at 105.00 – targeting 105.50.