Technical Forecasts In Currency Markets

Daily Trading Forecasts (October 22, 2012)

Actually, the currency markets have resumed the overall trends that were seen at the start of last week. There is a possibility that these very biases would continue in the most part of this week, especially given the expected economic fundamentals that are queued up for this week.

EURUSD: This pair – which was largely bullish last week - has resumed its northward journey. The nearest target at the upside is 1.3100. If this is broken towards the north, the nearest next target would be 1.3150, especially if this bias continues.

USDCHF: This pair was bearish last week, and it could continue being so this week. The nearest support level is 0.9250. If this is broken to the downside, the price may reach the level at 0.9200 eventually. A short order is pre1ffered.

GBPUSD: The Cable itself is eventually being forced to comply with what is happening on the USD. Last week was bearish for this pair: it gave up all its gains. We can now see that the price has now started making a bullish attempt. The accumulation zone at 1.6000 remains strong, psychological and decisive.

USDJPY: It can be seen that the bullish pressure on the JPY pairs is very strong right now. On the USDJPY, the bias was bullish last week, and this is something that has continued up till now. This has a tendency to continue this week, and therefore, the supply territory at 80.00 is not a lofty target.

EURJPY: The Yen is really weak; as can be viewed right now. Last week was bullish, and this week will probably be no different. The bullish pressure has resumed again; the price has moved up by more than 100 pips today. The market may reach the supply zone at 105.00 this week.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (October 23, 2012)

Today, the markets are showing reversals in some cases. However, there is a continuation of the dominant trends in certain cases as well. What have started happening in the currency markets might be valid for the whole day.

EURUSD: There is now a serious threat to the bullish bias – as far as this pair is concerned. If the current correction holds out for the rest of today and possibly, tomorrow, then the bullish outlook would be over. The RSI 14 period is now below the level 50.

USDCHF: This pair is now showing some new lease of strength – basically because of some noteworthy weakness in the EUR. The RSI 14 period is already above the level 50. There is a bullish engulfing candle right now, and if this scenario continues for the next several hours, a bullish signal may become valid.

GBPUSD: This is a weak market, as the GBPUSD has proven to give short-sellers a good opportunity to enter short at a better price. The short-term rally that occurred yesterday proved to be a rally in a new and valid downtrend. The Williams’ % Range period 20 is already in the oversold region, and therefore, there could be a minor correction before the continuation of the downward bias.

USDJPY: On the USDJPY, the supply territory at 80.00 was tested once before the present pullback we are seeing. There is still some weakness in the Yen, as the Greenback is trying to gather some strength. The price is still above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 going into the oversold region – no wonder the current correction. If the supply level at 80.00 is broken to the upside, the next target would be 80.50.

EURJPY: The bullish outlook on this cross is also still vivid – despite the current pullback. It may potentially prove to be a pullback in the context of an uptrend. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, while the nearest demand zone is 103.50.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (October 24, 2012)

The markets continued their biases yesterday. The Greenback continued its strength, while the Euro and the Cable experienced further weakness. Should this scenario continue further today, it could lead to confirmed changes in the trends in certain cases.

EURUSD: This pair was bearish yesterday, and further continuation of this bias could lead to a confirmed ‘sell’ signal. The support line at 1.2950 is being besieged – as it stands the chance of being breached to the downside. The RSI 14 period is far below the level 50.

USDCHF: The USDCHF was bullish yesterday – almost significantly. A continuation of this bullish pressure would eventually lead to a valid ‘buy’ signal later today. The nearest resistance level is at 0.9350 (with a possibility of being tested). The RSI 14 period is far above the level 50.

GBPUSD: The Cable has continued its weakness as the EMA 11 remains below its EMA 56 counterpart. Having said so, the Williams’ % Range is now in the oversold region, so a short-lived pullback would not be a surprise. The psychological level at 1.6000 was eventually violated to the downside. The next target is the accumulation zone at 1.5900.

USDJPY: The supply territory at 80.00 still proves formidable for the price on this market. The USDJPY has shown its unwillingness to pull back significantly. That supply territory is being besieged, and may yield to bulls’ attack as the northward pressure resumes. The price is far above the EMA 56, and the RSI 14 is in a perpetual oversold condition.

EURJPY: There was a conspicuous pullback on this cross yesterday. The supply zone at 104.50 rejected further bullish attempts. The price closed at the demand zone of 103.50, and later bounced up. The signal on this cross is still a ‘buy,’ especially considering the situation on the Williams’ % Range period 20.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (October 25, 2012)

The Forex pairs and crosses have continued to move in orderly manners as key economic figures are being released. JPY pairs have experienced continuations, while other popular pairs are reversing – especially in the direction of the overall trend. This scenario brings new trading opportunities.

EURUSD: The EURUSD is currently trying to rally, though not in a very significant mode. The RSI period 14 is now pointing towards the level 50. If this rally continues for the rest of today and the RSI indicator eventually cross the level 50 to the upside, a ‘buy’ signal would be generated eventually. But I will prefer to stay out of the market right now.

USDCHF: The scenario on the EURUSD is almost similar to the one on the USDCHF, albeit in an opposite manner. One would need to wait for a clearer signal before opening a long order. Here, I would prefer the RSI 14 to cross the level 50 to the downside before looking for an entry point.

GBPUSD: The Cable is currently showing a bullish pressure, coupled with strong northward determination. There has been a significant rally today, and as a result of this, looking for a long entry would be sensible in the long run. However, the Williams’ % Range is in an overbought region: this may cause a temporary pullback in the market.

USDJPY: The JPY pairs have in most cases, been caught in a steady and protracted bullish bias for many days. The USDJPY is no different. The great supply territory at 80.00 was breached to the upside as predicted. The next target would be 80.50, should this scenario continue. Please bear it in mind that the RSI 14 has constantly stayed in the overbought region.

EURJPY: The EURJPY, the bullish EURJPY! This cross has rejected the bearish correction it experienced recently. The correction took the price to the demand zone at 103.00, and since then, the price has rallied by around 130 pips. The bullish trend on the cross is still valid.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (October 26, 2012)

The markets are now at important levels, because more buying and selling pressures would cause considerable movements around these levels. This would happen sooner or later. Strength and weakness can be observed on the charts below.

EURUSD: This week has been bearish for the EURUSD, and a short trade has been signified on the chart. What started as a rally at the beginning of this week has proven to be an opportunity to sell short in a content of a new downtrend. It looks like the EURUSD is headed for the support level at 1.2900.

USDCHF: This pair has moved up by close to 100 pips this week. A new bullish signal has been confirmed - this is done as it is assumed that the market would trend higher. The next target should be the resistance level at 0.9400.

GBPUSD: The Cable is very strong right now. Or it could be said that the GBP is very strong; in order to be precise. The market fell below the crucial accumulation zone of 1.6000 this week, but further bearish plunge was rejected below this zone. The bottom for this week is 1.5916, and the price has gone considerably up since then. This is by around 200 pips.

USDJPY: The bullish USDJPY has gone up significantly without much retracement. Having moved up by almost 190 pips, the price is now experiencing some pullback. It is expected that this pullback could be halted around 79.50. This is understandable, since the RSI 14 period has been in an oversold territory for a long period of time. So this temporary pullback is not a surprise.

EURJPY: Strictly speaking, this week has been indecisive on the EURJPY. There is no clear victory between buyers and sellers, though I still prefer a bullish bias. If one would need to go short, then one would need to wait for more confirmation. I would stay out of this market until a new direction is confirmed or an upward continuation is established.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (October 29, 2012)

This week, there could be nice developments in the markets. New biases have been confirmed, and they are expected to be valid for the most part of the week. There could be some continuous strength in the Greenback and the Yen.

EURUSD: The EURUSD was bearish last week – something that is expected to continue this week. The support line at 1.2900 could be breached to the downside, as the price goes for another level at 1.2850. I prefer to go short right now.

USDCHF: Since last week, the USDCHF has been trying to regain some of its recent losses. This could continue in this week. The resistance level at 0.9350 was breached and is now acting as a support level. It would not be difficult for the price to reach the level at 0.9400, eventually.

GBPUSD: The scenario on the Cable is currently intriguing – just as I was about recommending trading this instrument with caution. The GBPUSD is normally expected to be positively correlated with the EURUSD, and therefore, the weakness in the latter would potentially portend the bullish break on the former as a false one. This is exactly what is happening right now.

USDJPY: By last Friday, this pair had given up most of the gain it had last week. If this scenario continues for a few more days, it could mean the end of the current bullish propensity. The RSI 14 period is currently under the level 50: it would be good to wait for a clearer signal.

EURJPY: The EURJPY cross is now trading below the supply zone at 103.00, having been essentially bearish in the last five trading days. If the present scenario continues to hold out, a bearish confirmation would be in place. The price might reach a supply level at 102.00 this week.

 

Currency Markets Review (October 31, 2012)

Yesterday, the currency markets saw reversals in the biases that were predominant last week. These could be corrections in new trends or potential reversals towards the recent primary biases.

EURUSD: There was some bullish pressure in this market. This really poses some threat to the current bearish signals. If the price reverts towards the resistance line at 1.3000 and break it upwards, it might lead to an invalidation of the current scenario.

USDCHF: The USDCHF has experienced some bearish pull – dragging the price towards the support level at 0.9300. We can see that further bearish pull was rejected at this level. This could give buyers a good opportunity to go long at a cheaper price.

GBPUSD: The Cable seems to be headed towards the distribution zone at 1.6100. This zone itself could trigger a new shorting opportunity if it rejects further bullish threats. One would do well to stay aside while a stable direction is confirmed.

USDJPY: The northwards scenario on this market is still valid, since more southwards possibility has been rejected even before the price reached the demand territory at 79.00. The price has been going on since then. It currently trades above the EMA 56.

EURJPY: The new shorting possibility on this cross is currently threatened. Yet, one would need to wait for a clearer signal, for it would be a kind of presumptuous to go long here. It can be seen that the William’s % Range is heading up from its overbought region, hence the present development on the price.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (October 31, 2012)

The bearish threats that were seen at the beginning of this week are no longer valid. Buyers continue to hold sway as bullish pressures are becoming more intense in the markets. However it remains to be seen how this would be sustained eventually. For now, the markets are upwards.

EURUSD: The bearish signal that was formed on the EURUSD (last week) is seriously threatened. If the current scenario continues, it would lead to a northward confirmation. The RSI 14 is already far above the level 50. The resistance line at 1.3000 has been breached upwards as the price goes towards another resistance line at 1.3050.

USDCHF: The weakness in the USD has dragged this pair down by around 75 pips. This is confirmed as the RSI 14 period has gone below the level 50. Should the current scenario continues, there would be a bearish signal validity. This would be so especially when the price goes toward the support level at 0.9250.

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD failed to test the accumulation level at1.6000 before skyrocketing by over 120 pips. This is a buy signal, but one should pay attention to the Williams’ % Range which is in the overbought territory. This means that the price might pull back a little before the northward continuation.

USDJPY: Here, we can see that patience bears rewards. The RSI fell below the level 50, but the price failed to close below the EMA 56. This means that the recent bearish attempt was a mere correction. The price has now gone above the EMA 56 – going further north. The next target could be the supply territory at 80.00.

EURJPY: The scenario on this market is almost similar to that of the USDJPY (with minor variations). In fact, this is true of other JPY pairs. It looks like the supply zone at 104.00 would not be a far-fetched target, in spite of the overbought condition on the Williams’ % Range period 20.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 1, 2012)

No significant economic figures affecting the Euro are expected to be released today. Moreover, there is a bank holiday in France and Italy. The movements that could affect the Euro versus other currencies would be determined by fundamental figures affecting other currencies such as the Manufacturing PMI affecting the GBP and the CB Consumer Confidence affecting the USD.

EURUSD: The recent rally on the EURUSD was halted at the resistance line at 1.3000. The price now hovers above the support line around 1.2950. The fact that the RSI 14 is still above the level 50 suggests a bullish possibility, but it would be prudent to stay out of this market until a clearer signal is generated.

USDCHF: Likewise on this pair, further bearish plunge was checked and the price now stays above the level at 0.9300. The RSI period 14, which is below the level 50, still shows some bearish presence. However, whatever happens later today would determine the condition on this pair. Right now, the situation remains unclear.

GBPUSD: Rather than falling to the south, the Cable traded in a tight range yesterday. There is a distribution zone at 1.6150 and an accumulation zone at 1.6100. If the price breaks above the zone 1.6150, it would show a bullish continuation; whereas a break below the accumulation zone at 1.6100 would signal a bearish reversal.

USDJPY: At last, this market breached the supply territory at 80.00 to the upside. The latest candle on the chart shows a strong bullish determination. The EMA 56 and the RSI 14 also support this bullish determination. Should the market continue like this, the next price target would be the supply territory at 80.50.

EURJPY: Just like the USDJPY, the EURJPY cross also shows some bullish strength. The price seems to have decided to test the supply zone at 104.00. The Williams’ % Range in the overbought territory gives a warning of a possible pullback in the near-term. The immediate demand zone is at 103.50.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (November 2, 2012)

The NFP and unemployment data move the markets today. On 4-hour charts below, it would bee seen that some clear directions have formed in certain cases. The NFP was expected to respect those directions sooner or later.

EURUSD: The Bullish attempts that happened this week have been rendered invalid. The price is coming down as the RSI 14 crosses the level 50 below. The EMA 11 has already crossed the EMA 56 to the downside – underlining this assumption. I have a sell signal here.

USDCHF: The bearish effort on the USDCHF has been rendered useless, as a new bullish confirmation is taking shape. The price now eyes the resistance levels at 0.9400. The RSI period 14 is now below the level 50 – sell.

GBPUSD: Even the seemingly powerful Cable has given way to some gravity. From a high of 1.6169, the price has fallen by over 80 pips. If this scenario continues for a few more days, it would lead to a nice bearish trend.

USDJPY: This pair has maintained its strength tenaciously, even in this tricky week. The pair has maintained its predominantly bullish outlook. With a slow and steady upward journey, the price might reach the supply territory at 80.50.

EURJPY: The weakness in the Euro is having an adverse effect on the bullish interest on the EURJPY cross. A new long position would not be recommended until a clearer bias is established. The present scenario would not be a surprise, since the Williams’ % Range is reverting from the overbought territory.