Technical Forecasts In Currency Markets

Weekly Trading Forecasts (June 10 - 14, 2013)

The Greenback has been weak and the Yen has been strong. Most JPY pairs are also weak. The fundamentals that were released lately even added fuel to the extant biases. This means vivid bullish biases for some currency instruments like EURUSD and GBPUSD: and conspicuous bearish biases for some instruments like the USDCHF and EURJPY.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The pair has moved upwards by roughly 270 pips recently, in conjunction with the vivid Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. This northward journey is expected to continue, though there would be some consolidation and southward retracements on the way. The price could be trading above the resistance line of 1.3350 within the next few trading days. Along the line, the purported pullbacks should not take the price below the support line of 1.3150.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
The USDCHF has gone downwards by 300 pips recently. The indicators on the chart are in full support of this strong downwards bias. It could be said that since reaching the high of 0.9837 two weeks ago, the price has gone down by more than 550 pips. Any rallies on the pair would be transient in nature, not pushing the price above the resistance level at 0.9400. Within the next several trading days, the price could touch the support level at 0.9200.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The Cable, the lucky Cable. Isn’t it? There is a lot of optimism surrounding the Cable, and as a result of that, it is getting stronger and stronger. This volatile and strongly trending instrument has lately moved upwards by around 400 pips. There is a probability that the price could reach the distribution territory at 1.5800 during its journey further north. It could even breach the aforementioned territory to the upside.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
This instrument has become a boon to the bears. The price is going south and would possibly go on doing that. Recently, it went south by over 390 pips. There could be some transitory rallies now and then – something that is inevitable. Historically, any rally has proven to be short-term, leading to good shorting opportunities. Very soon, the price may be trading below the demand level of 96.00.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
The cross has given up all the gains it made in 4 week. It has moved downwards by more than 290 pips in the recent time. In the face of the current Bearish Confirmation Pattern, the cross would be going further downwards. The Yen is strong and the Euro is strong. But if the strong Euro succumbs to the mighty Yen, then one would need to imagine the intensity of the stamina in the Yen. Long trades are not advised here, for the cross would be going further downwards.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“A good trader will always be better than a system, mainly because a good trader will be ahead of the system.” – Mark Williams (Source: Trade2win.com)

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (June 17 - 21, 2013)

The currency market instruments have been moving in a determined and predictable manner. The JPY pairs have been very weak, while the GBP and the EUR are strong. The USD is weak. However, there could soon be some pullbacks in the bullish biases (no space shuttle can go upwards indefinitely). The pullbacks could be temporary or be the harbinger of new determined biases. The trader needs not repine as a result of this, as long as time-honored trading principles are employed.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
This is a strong bullish market. Since late May 2013, EURUSD has moved upwards by over 430 pips. The price is thus breaking more and more resistance lines, though there may be some bearish pullbacks along the way, it is possible that the markets would continue to trend upwards. The aforementioned pullbacks are not supposed to pull below the price below the support line of 1.3200 at worst. Otherwise, the extant bias could be in jeopardy.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
In a direct opposite manner to the EURUSD, this pair is going downwards in a predictable manner. In the face of possible rallies (which could prove to be short-term in nature), the price could reach the support levels of 0.9100 and 0.9000 respectively. The pullback ought not to take the price above the resistance level of 0.9400. There is still much room for the selling pressure and short trades can be sought.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The optimism around the Cable is still extant, and so, it is normal to expect it to continue its northward quest. This means that it is probable that the price reach the distribution territories of 1.5800 and 1.5900. It is, however, unlikely that the price could touch or breach the distribution territory of 1.6000 very soon, let alone breaching it to the upside. Meanwhile, any probable bearish threat ought not to take the price below the accumulation territory of 1.5600.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
This is a weak market, and it would continue to be as such until further notice. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart; as supported by the indicators. One would then need to notice that, any rallies on this market have often given great short-selling opportunities. This is exactly the strategy being adopted here for now – sell-on-rallies. As long as the Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart continues to be valid, short trades ought to be sought.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
Since our model gave a short signal on this currency instrument (which was about a few weeks ago), it has gone down by almost 500 pips. Nevertheless, this is not without occasional strength in the market; just as the situation is really now. The present rally could just be another selling opportunity in the context of the currently weak market. The price would continue falling irrespective of any bullish retracement, and should this prove to be so, the cross could give up all its recent gains.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Just surround yourself with successful people. Read about what's worked for them. They'll often be a great barometer for new opportunities, because success often breeds more success.” – Joe Ross.

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (June 24 - 28, 2013)

There have been sharp reversals in the markets, as the EUR, GBP and other currencies got weakened. All JPY pairs have rallied: there are confirmed new biases in the markets. As some instruments plummet further, more bearish pressure would be experienced and positions are smoothed as people show the white feather when they are risk-averse. As you probably know, exits are also a good part of any trading strategy, not only entries.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The EURUSD has been weakened recently, giving up most of the gains it accumulated in the last few weeks. There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and short trades could thus be sought. The price might trend further downwards towards the support line of 1.3100 and 1.3000 respectively. Any rallies are supposed to be short-term, not going upwards more than the resistance line at 1.3350.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
Right now, the indicators on the chart do not agree on a particular bias. The oscillators support a bullish outlook, whereas the momentum indicators support bearish outlook. There are mixed signals in this market, and so one would need to wait for a further confirmation before one takes a position. Should the EURUSD get weakened further, this pair would be forced to trend upwards in a significant manner.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The optimism surrounding the Cable has already disappeared, following some Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. One should seek short trades only (even any expected rallies should not take the price above the distribution territory of 1.5650). The short-term rallies are thus seen as opportunities to go short at higher prices in a context of a downtrend. Meanwhile, the price may reach the accumulation territory of 1.5300.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
There is a conspicuous ‘buy’ signal on the USDJPY. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, which is a clean bias, as supported by the indicators. The price thus could be going further upwards. Any pullbacks in the price may not take the price lower than the demand level of 96.00, though it is probable that the price could go upwards towards the supply level of 100.00 within the next several trading days.


EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
There has already been an indication to go long on this market. Should this bullish indication continue, the price would be trading above the important market zone of 130.00, going towards the supply zone of 131.00. There could be some tests of the nearest demand zones, say 128.00 and 127.00, but the price ought not to go below the aforementioned demand zones, for the current bias not to be in jeopardy.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“The mark of a sound strategy is that it can work in entirely different eras such as the 1920s and 1930s.” – Dr. Chris Kacher

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (July 1 – 5, 2013)

It is well-known that events move the markets, and that what relevant personalities say (for example, central bank governors/presidents) have short-term or long-term impacts on the markets. This remains a fact, and it has affected the markets in recent times. Looking at the popular currency instruments, they have continued to go in the direction of the dominant biases, irrespective of occasional counter-trend waves. The JPY pairs are currently strong.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
This pair has continued to trend downwards, in agreement with the bias on the chart. If you have been following the trend since the ‘sell’ signal was generated, you would have seen that the pair has move in the forecasted direction, irrespective of occasional counter-trend moves. Occasional counter-trend moves are expected (and they are something normal). The price could get further downwards towards the support line at 1.2950.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
This enigmatic pair has continued to move in a slow and tardy manner, albeit to the upside (for such is the characteristic of the pair). There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and the latest pullbacks in the price have been negligible so far. It is thus expected that the pair would continue to shrug off the bearish threats on it. It may soon reach the resistance level of 0.9550, or possibly break it to the upside.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
It can be seen that the optimism surrounding the Cable has disappeared, though this may return as the Bank of England is possibly expected to have a new governor (Mark Carney by name). This may potentially cause a new lease of strength in the Cable (otherwise the Cable would be doomed to continue trending downwards further). The expected Midas Touch from Mark could push the Cable upwards, though the current trend is valid.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
The USDJPY trended lower towards the demand level of 97.00, in what could be some noteworthy bearish retracement on the chart. That bearish retracement did not violate the extant bullish trend, for the Bullish Confirmation Pattern has held out till now. Right now, the bullish bias has been resumed and the price could go towards the psychological supply level of 100.00 within the next several trading days.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Since all the JPY pairs tend to be positively correlated (i.e. they all go downwards when the Yen is very strong, and they all go up when the Yen is very weak), it is not a wonder that the EUR, though not strong at the moment, has been going upwards against the Yen. This drives home the lesson that currency trading is all about matching weak currencies against strong currencies. There was a recent ‘sell’ signal on the chart, which was quickly rendered invalid as the cross assumed a clear uptrend.

This article is ended with the quote below:

“If you are active in the market, you need to know what you are doing… This is a time for neither fear nor greed. For those who are sharp and well trained, this could be a time for tremendous profits.” - Dr. Van Tharp (Source: Vantharp.com)

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (July 8 – 12, 2013)

In the previous week, the dominant biases in the markets have proven to be valid (even till now). It can be seen that the consolidations and reversals that happened on major pairs and crosses were short-term in nature; as the respective instruments have continued in the direction of the major biases. The USD and the JPY are strong, whereas the GBP and the EUR are weak.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
This is a bear market, and it is supposed to continue being so. The pair may continue to trend lower, possibly towards the support lines of 1.2700 and 1.2650. However, this may not happen without some occasional rallies along the way, which are not expected to take the price above the resistance line at 1.3000. For the several trading days to come, the aforementioned resistance line would be a great barrier to any bull’s interests.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
Being able to shrug off bearish threats on it, the USDCHF has been able to continue going northwards. The stamina of the USD is a reality, and as such the scenario in this market is no surprise. Having been able to overcome adamant resistance levels, the price could go on towards the resistance levels of 0.9650 and 0.9750 respectively. Would the USD be able to reach parity with the CHF? Time will tell.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
For now, there is no optimism around the Cable, for it is in a vivid downtrend. On July 3, 2013, there was a significant rally in the price, which eventually proved to be short-term in nature. It simply happened that the rally was a good sell-shorting opportunity in the context of the present downtrend. The Cable has plummeted by hundreds of pips, and it could reach the accumulation territory of 1.4000, should this weakness continue.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Recently, this pair was able to breach the great psychological level at 100.00 to the upside. The USD is now more valuable than the JPY. The JPY is strong and the USD is strong. It now appears that the USD is stronger than the JPY, for the bias on the USDJPY is towards the north. There is still a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and therefore, is probable that the price could go upwards towards the supply level 101.00.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
The EURJPY does not look buoyant at the present, given the lack of stamina in the EUR itself. Unless the weakness in the EUR is extremely significant, the cross would have to respect the direction of the other JPY pairs (as in the normal positive correlation). At the present, it is advisable for one to stay away from this market until there is a clear signal. This is because there are mixed signals on the chart.

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (July 15 – 19, 2013)

The recent week was characterized by significant reversals in the markets; an event which led to new confirmed signals on popular pair and crosses. This is especially possible with the new lease of stamina in the EUR and the GBP, as the USD was suddenly caught in exponential weakness. Even the JPY pairs have assumed a new bias (in most cases). The new signals in the markets are expected to continue.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
It can now been seen that any bearish threats on this pair has already been rejected successfully, as the price rose significantly in the latest development in the market. There is now a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and the price could go on beyond the resistance lines at 1.3100 and 0.3200 respectively. Within the next several trading days, it would be sensible to seek long trades only.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
From the weekly high of 0.9750, this pair dived by roughly 300 pips. The price is now trading below its formers support levels (which are now resistance levels). The market appears to be oversold, as indicated by some oscillators, but in reality this means that the market is weak and would continue to trade lower. In the face of this fact, the price may reach the support levels at 0.9400 and 0.9300.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
It is clear that some vivid optimism has returned to the market. Could this be called Mr. Carney’s effect? The time would tell whether the new bullish bias would be sustained. However, based on the reality in the market, the Cable is supposed to be going upwards in a significant bullish mode, though that does not rule out occasional bearish pulls, which are not supposed to take the price below the accumulation territory of 1.5000.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
A ‘sell’ signal has been formed on the USDJPY, following the Bearish Confirmation Pattern that occurred in the market. Since then, the USDJPY has traded sideways so far (for the market is volatile as a result of deadly struggles between buyers and sellers). However, the downward movement ought to resume in earnest. The price could reach the demand levels of 98.00 and 97.00. Meanwhile, the supply level at 100.00 is a barrier to any bullish attempt.

Primary trend: Bullish
When it is said that the major bias on this cross is bullish, it is precariously so. This is because there is no clear directional movement in the price for now: both the EUR and the JPY are a kind of strong, and one would need to be stronger than the other for the market to go upwards or downwards. At the end, the EURJPY would have to respect the overall direction of all the JPY pairs, and until it happens in such manner as a clear signal, no new positions are advised.

Source: Paxforex.com

 

I just did all the opposite your forecast,very bullish USD,will buy more if goes against me,this is now like sp500 ,just buy any dips and gonna make a lot of moneyes

 

I have started to believe now that these forecasts are just formality and is only a way to get salary by a analyst and there is no real benefit to normal traders like us.

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (July 22 – 26, 2013)

In the last several trading days, the currency instruments have been able to maintain their overall outlook, though the majors do not move that significantly, except the JPY pairs. The EUR and the GBP are strong, while the JPY and the USD are weak. Matching these weak and strong currencies together with sensible logic would result in better odds. Each week, multitudes are learning what it takes to be great traders. As a result, they’re realizing their dreams and building lasting career.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
This pair has been able to trend according to the dominant bias in the market (i.e. the bullish bias), although the movement has not been that significant. The indicators on the chart are still in favor of the bullish outlook, and as such, the price is expected to continue trending upwards – something that may possibly reach the resistance lines of 1.3200 and 1.3300 in the next several trading days.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
In a negative correlation to what the EURUSD is doing, this pair has been able to move further downwards in the direction of the latest bearish indication in the market. Although the southward dive is nothing to be called ‘serious,’ it is in support of the current bearish outlook. The price is expected to touch the support lines of 0.9300 and 0.9250 respectively, as the market continues its weakness.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The Cable has been noted for its consolidation phases, though it has been able to reject any bearish threats on it for the main time. The pair traded towards the upside in a slow and steady manner, moving upwards by over 110 pips. In the face of the current Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, it is safe to assume that the Cable would be trending upwards towards the accumulation territories of 1.5300 and 1.5400 respectively.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
As this currency instruments continue to respect its assured northward signal (for the bearish signal that occurred on July 17, 20123 proved to be bogus). However, there could be some corrections on the way, as it is happening right now. These corrections are not supposed to take the price below the demand levels of 99.50 and 99.00; otherwise the current outlook would be in serious jeopardy. The price could rise further eventually.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
In the last weekly forecast, it is said that the bias on this cross was bullish. Yes, it is still bullish, for the EURJPY is among the currency instruments that moved upwards significantly in the recent trading days. Since the EUR is strong and the JPY is weak, it is no surprise that the cross trended upwards by over 240 pips within the last several trading days. It is then probable that the price would resume its northward attempts when the current pullback pans out.

This article is ended by the quote below:

“Life is much more pleasant when we recognize and manage risk in any kind of venture.” - Jim Weigel (Source: Vantharp.com)


Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (July 29 – August 2, 2013)

In the last several trading days, we can see that the GBP, the CHF, and the EUR have continued showing strength, while the USD has continued to be weakened against them. The JPY pairs are also showing signs of noteworthy pullbacks, following their testing of major supply levels. The more overextended and protracted the current biases, the more dependable there would be probable pullbacks and bullish retracements when they do occur (whether protractedly or transitorily).

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
In spite of some disturbing fundamentals that have come out in recent times, this pair has been able to maintain its bullish bias. This is an example of “bad news but the instrument continues trending upwards.’ One resistance line after the other has been breached successfully, and the price may go on towards the resistance lines of 1.3400 and 1.3450, should the present bullish bias continue.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
In the last weekly trading forecast, it was hinted that the USDCHF could end up testing the support level of 0.9300. At the time of preparing this very market prognosis, the price was already trading below the aforementioned level. However, this did not happen without protracted equilibrium phases. In the face of the current Bearish Confirmation Pattern, the price may be able to go on lower and lower towards the support level of 0.9200.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
There is a Bullish Confirmation on the Cable… and a northward determination… and vivid optimism surrounding it. The price territory is already a forgone conclusion as long as the buyers’ interest is concerned. Within the next several trading days, the Cable is expected to reach the distribution territories of 1.5500 and 1.5550 respectively. In the meantime, any bearish threats on in the market ought not to go below the accumulation territory of 1.5300.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
Consistent weakness in the USD has resulted in the weakening of this pair. In fact, this pair would be able to go in the way of other JPY pairs. Right now, the indicators on the chart confirm a bearish signal on the chart. However, this did not happen without significant rallies which gave spurious signals in some cases. It simply happened that the rallies were nice opportunities to sell short in view of the current bearish trend. The price could go on towards the demand level of 97.00.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
This currency instrument is also in the habit of going in the way of most JPY pairs. The price recently topped at 132.70 and later nosedived. From that supply zone of 132.70, the price has gone lower by more than 100 pips. Nevertheless, one would need to wait for further confirmation among oscillators and momentum indicators (for their signals are conflicting right now). After a confirmed bias, one would then take a position.

This article is ended by the quote below:

“Successful trading is about making money, that’s it. It ’s not about ego, or being cool, or having great stories to tell your friends at the bar. The more closely your trading style fits with your personality, the less conflict it will create, meaning the less negative emotions it will generate, and the better chance you have to be successful.” – Brian Lund (Source: www.tradersonline-mag.com)

Article source: Paxforex.com