Technical Forecasts In Currency Markets

Weekly Trading Forecasts (April 8 - 12, 2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
Although the EURUSD went upwards recently, the major bearish bias remains unchanged, and for it to be rendered invalid (for it is being threatened), the price would need to trend further upwards for at least, a few trading days. Even, should the price touch the resistance level at 1.3000, it is not supposed to breach it to the upside. Ultimately, the price could plunge towards the support level at 1.2800, especially within the next several trading days. One could either short the market at 1.3000 or wait for further bearish pull before going short.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
This slow pair traded in a range recently, before it finally showed the direction it would take. The price has been bearish lately, and it is expected that the coming fundamentals would even add more to further bearish pressures (which would definitely take the price to additional support levels). Right now, there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. Any short-term rallies may not atke the price beyond the resistance levels at 0.9500, and in the meantime, the price could touch the support level at 0.9300.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
Recently, the Cable regained its weekly loss. Yet, the gain was so significant enough to override the extant bearish outlook completely. Only a scenario in which the Cable trades upwards for a few more trading days would render the bearish outlook ineffectual. Should further bullish attempt prove abortive (which is not supposed to take the price beyond the distribution territory at 1.5300), the price would plunge downwards - enabling certain speculators to go short at a higher price – probably reaching the accumulation territory at 1.5000.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Following an exponential weakness in the Yen, the USDJPY pair recently shot skywards in a significant manner. This enabled the pair to regain its more than 2 weeks of losses. There is now Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the Chart (as most indicators support that). Further northward journey is expected, but not without some near-term retracement in the price. The retracement ought not to take the price below the demand level at 95.00, for the current outlook to be valid. Ultimately, the price would go towards the supply level of 97.00.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Like the USDJPY and other JPY pairs, this market moved upwards by more than 530 pips on Thursday, April 4, 2013 (from a low of 119.10). This noteworthy occurrence helped the market to regain more than 2 weeks of losses. There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, supported by technical indicators. Over the time, the northward journey would continue, but there could be some bearish retracement towards the demand zone 123.00. It is not expected that the price should go lower than that zone, or else, there could be a serious threat to the present northward outlook. Eventually, the market could reach the supply zone of 126.00.


Source: Paxforex.com

 

Monthly Outlook on Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium (April, 2013)

GOLD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since the year 2012, the outlook on the world-famous gold has been bearish. This highly-sought precious metal has plummeted by more than 13500 points since December 2012, when the model used for this analysis gave a long term short signal. The outlook is bearish and the price would continue to respect that, for the Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart remains extant. The recent bullish correction would not take the price upwards beyond the resistance level at 1580.00 while the price may ultimately reach the support level at 1530.00.

SILVER
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since February 2013, this market has fallen by over 400 points, following some futile but noteworthy bullish effort that was seen in January 2013. The dominant trend is bearish (there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart), for the indicators in our model support this. In the short term, some bullish attempts may take the price towards the distribution territories of 28.00 and 28.50; yet the bears are expected to prevail, for the price could be pushed downwards towards the accumulation territory of 26.00.

PLATINUM
Dominant bias: Bearish
Irrespective of what happens in this market, the major outlook remains bearish. For example, the market traded in some defined equilibrium zones in most part of March 2013, yet the bias is to the downside. Recently, there is a bullish attempt in the market, but this only proffers a good opportunity to sell short at dearer prices, while the market is still in the context of a downtrend. There are supply levels at 1560.0 and 1565.0, which should contain any bullish threats: meanwhile the price could reach the demand level at 1500.0.

PALLADIUM
Dominant bias: Bullish
On Palladium, our model gave a ‘buy’ signal in November 2012. Since then, the precious metal has moved upwards by more than 15600 points – topping at the supply zone of 787.50 on March 8, 2013. Since then, the price has a kind of moved sideways, and right now, there is a serious threat to the long-term bullish bias on the chart. Despite this, the outlook is bullish, and short orders are not yet recommended (unless they are done on a short-term basis). Whether the event in the market would lead to a ‘sell’ signal or the bulls would push the price upwards remain to be seen - so one would do well to wait for further confirmation before taking a decision.

Conclusion: However, some financial instruments which were reaching for the skies now seem unable to regain their recent losses. Why? Researches have revealed that financial instruments there were formerly going northward perpetually, spurred on by incessant bullish pressures, are now unable to sustain their former biases, whereas instruments that once seemed hopeless now showcase the tendency to maintain constant stamina. These are the instruments that make headlines when they hold out longer than expected in their northward determination.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Trade to make money, not to fill some other unfilled emotional hole.” - Mike Dever

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (April 15 - 19, 2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The EURUSD is no longer in a bearish mode. This famous pair has shrugged off any bearish pulls and has resumed an extended bullish mode. This is a fact that is supposed to be valid for the next several trading days, though there could be some southward retracements along the way. The retracements ought not to take the price below the support line of 1.3000. Meanwhile, the price could reach the resistance line around 1.3200.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
This pair remains bearish, but the bearish steam is not that strong, since there has always been some cut-throat tussle between the bear and the bull. This is the reason why the bearish momentum is not that strong. Recently, the price was hovering around the support level at 0.9300; there must be some perpetual movement below that level for the bearish bias to be valid, otherwise, there would some northward correction that could touch the resistance level of 0.9400.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart remains extant (the indicators also confirm that the Cable is in a bullish mode). At the upside breach of the territory of 1.5400 to the upside, the price could go on towards the distribution territories of 1.5500 and 1.5600. Yet, there would be some bearish pulls along the way, but the pulls are not expected to take the price below the accumulation territories of 1.5300 and 1.5200 at worst.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Since the bullish runs on all the JPY pairs started, the USDJPY has gone upwards by close to 700 pips (from a low of 92.71). Nevertheless, there is a very big supply level around 100.00 and the price would have some great difficulty in breaking that level to the upside. It can be said that there would be sharp reversals around this level, but they ought not to take the price below the demand levels of 99.00 and 98.50. For the current bullish outlook to be valid, the price must break the supply level at 100.00 to the upside.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
From the low of 119.10, the price on this cross has skyrocketed by more than 1100 pips. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart is extremely strong, but the price is now approaching some important supply zones, which must be broken to the upside, for the primary trend to continue to be valid. Any short-term pullbacks ought not to take the price below the demand zone of 129.00. In the long run, the price might reach the supply zones of 131.50 and 132.50.


Conclusion: Market approaches that are based on prognosis ought to be done with some form of rationality. If you are not aware of the recent facts in the market, how can you deal with the future facts? When you know the recent developments in the markets, and the right thing to do next, then you have a profitable trading approach.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Markets exist to facilitate trade. That means making it easier for buyers and sellers to transact.” - D.R. Barton, Jr.


Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (April 22 - 26, 2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The outlook on this popular pair remains bullish, and it is expected to be so. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart (with the indicators pointing to further northward possibility). A long position may be judicious on the EURUSD as long as a stop is put around the support line 1.3000. This is the line at which any bearish threat is supposed to be checked seriously. Meanwhile, the price could reach the resistance line of 1.3200 eventually.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
Though reluctantly, this pair is moving downwards. Recently, it only went down a little. Yet, there are serious bearish pressures in the market, and long trades are not advisable right now. Should this analysis prove to be correct, the price would touch the support level at 0.9200 within the next several trading days. Any short-term rallies ought not to take the price above the resistance level of 0.9400.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the GBPUSD is still valid, though the price has been very volatile recently. There was a sell-off that nearly overrode the extant bullish trend, but at the time of writing this article, the market has re-gained its recent losses. The indicators on the chart support the bullish trend, and the price could reach the distribution territory of 1.5500 within the next several trading days.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
This instrument experienced heavy bearish pressure after topping at the supply level of 99.93, after which it recovered its recent losses and trended upwards again. It has been said that it would be unlikely for the price to break the great supply level of 100.00 to the upside. The outlook on the instrument is bullish, but one would do well to use the aforementioned supply level as the target.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
There is still some bullish determination on this cross, and the bulls would continue pushing the price upwards. Recently, there have been serious battles between the bulls and the bears (with the latter winning temporarily). The bulls, however, have shown their supremacy and have been pushing the price upwards. The demand zone at 128.00 serves as the ultimate barrier to any bearish threat, whereas the price could reach the supply zone of 131.50.

Conclusion: Some people fear what would happen when they open new trades. However, you must open new trades so that you can make more profits. No trades, no profits. Granted, not all the trades would win, but expert traders also experience the same thing. As long as we make more money than we lose, then we are all OK. So why shouldn’t we trade? Trading is not easy – it will always be hard. Bear this fact in mind and continue to your trading success. Even when there is a loss, you already know that it is a normal part of doing any business. Even if you fail to see a great opportunity in the market, that is also a normal part of doing any business. Remember this fact when there are challenges. The truth is that you are going to win at last! It is totally wrong to say that those who persevere cannot win. You can be a market wizard, plus you will be victorious, though it is not easy.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“But quite honestly, I take the rough with the smooth. Some months will be negative. Some months will be positive. That's OK.” - Max Munroe

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (April 29 – May 3, 2013)

Pro-cyclical currency instruments would normally go northward in bull markets, as prices are breaking more and more supply levels. On the other hand, anti-cyclical currency instruments tend to exhibit a measure of strength only in bear markets, as prices are breaking more and more demand levels. Sometimes a confirmed bias may last longer than one imagines.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
Recently it looks as though the EURUSD is not making any decisive directional move, although the current bias is towards the downside. Any possible bullish attempts are not supposed to take the price above the resistance line of 1.3150, whereas the bears could push the price lower towards the support lines of 1.2950 and 1.2900 respectively. For the next several trading days, I would assume a bearish outlook.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
The primary trend on this pair has turned bullish lately and it is expected that this scenario would continue to hold. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and all indicators are in favor of the bulls. For this current outlook to keep on making sense, short-term bearish corrections should not take the price below the support levels of 0.9400 and 0.9350 respectively. Meanwhile, the price could reach the resistance level of 0.9550.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
There is a long signal on this instrument and it is currently valid. The indicators on the chart are presently in favor of the bulls, and therefore, there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. Since this signal was generated, the price has moved upwards by over 230 pips, and it could reach some distribution territories at 1.5500 and 1.5550. Nevertheless, some probable bearish threats could pull the price towards the accumulation territories at 1.5300 and 1.5250.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
In recent times, the USDJPY has been trading within some defined range, because it has been unable to breach the great supply level at 100.00 (a feat that must be accomplished for the current bullish outlook to survive). It is either the price breaks above the aforementioned supply level or it breaks below the demand level at 98.00 to the downside. Whatever happens as far as these two options are concerned would determine the next price action.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Just like most other JPY pairs, this cross is in some serious equilibrium zones and it is yet to make any significant bullish continuation determination. Momentum indicators still confirm the bullish bias – which is, in fact, still valid. But the oscillators are showing the possibility of the bears having upper hands. One would need to wait until the market showcases further confirmation of its intent, and until then it is better to stay out of this market.


Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (May 6 - 10, 2013)

The markets are now at critical levels and thus require tact to handle. Prices are now approach major supply and demand zones. When open orders are smoothed, bulls go against bears and bears go against bulls. This kind of scenario would signal that, should Smart Money exit all their orders, the market would be forced to go southward. Should there be an absence of some bulls to push up the prices, the prices would nosedive. This kind of scenario cannot favor the bulls, since they would be unable to dump their stakes at the optimal market levels; for the prices have gone downwards as a result of a massive sell-off. Thus short orders are smoothed gradually until all the orders are no longer open.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The EURUSD moved upwards recently, but it has given up all the gains as a result of the stamina of the Greenback. There is a serious threat to the current bullish outlook: should the price continue to nosedive, the bullish outlook may be eventually rendered invalid. For the bullish outlook not to be rendered invalid, the price must stay constantly above the current support line at 1.3000.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
Although the present long-term bias on this pair is bearish, there is a serious threat to it, and the price merely needs to move upwards for a few more days for the bias to be rendered ineffectual completely. Nevertheless, as long as the price is below the resistance level of 0.9450, the long-term bearish trend remains sensible. If that resistance level is breached and the price closes above it, then a new bullish signal is generated.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
This unique market has been in a bullish mode constantly. However, the northward movement this week so far has been tardy, and that one has nearly been rendered invalid by the recent event in the market. There are mixed signals on the chart – oscillators confirm a change in the trend whereas the momentum indicators are yet to confirm this. As long as the price stays above the accumulation territory at 1.5400, the signal is ‘buy.’

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Lately, there was a threat to the bullish outlook, since May 2, 2013; the fundamental facts coming from the markets have made the USD a stronger entity. There is now clear a direction in the market, which means the price is going northwards. Nevertheless, it must be noted that the price is unlikely to go above the supply level at 100.00, since it is a significant level. The bullish activity would not be able to carry the price beyond that level in the next several trading days.


EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
The signal on the EURJPY cross is also a ‘buy’ signal. The cross was moving in some tight range (in which there are serious struggle between the bears and the bulls), right before the price broke upwards. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, but the bullish move would be limited. It is not expected that the price would go beyond the supply zone of 131.00 within the next several trading days.

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (May 13 - 17, 2013)

Interesting things are happening in the markets, especially on JPY pairs. The northward outlook on these pairs has held out longer than what most thought. The USDJPY pair has broken the great supply zone of 100.00 to the upside (the last time the price was above that market zone was April 2009). The real surmise shows that a northward journey would continue to run as long as some think it would end. When most traders think the bias would continue indefinitely, then there would be a reversal. A southwards journey would likewise continue for as long as people hope it would end. Then when people think it would not end soonest, that is when a new bullish phase would begin.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
From the recent monthly peak of 1.3242, the price has gradually come down to the present location. Although the bulls struggled desperately to push up the price, they were eventually outmaneuvered by the wily bears. For example, the market has lost all its gains in the recent week. There is a new bearish indication on in the market and one would do well to seek short trades only.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
On the USDCHF, the weak bearish trend has been gotten rid of completely. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart – for the indicators now support a bullish outlook. Despite any possible correction that may take place in the next several days, it is advisable to seek only long trades here. Price correction ought not to go below the support level at 0.9400, while the price could eventually reach the resistance level at 0.9600.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
As far as the reality on the chart is concerned, this pair is now in a bearish mode. Given the new lease of strength in the Greenback, the pair has been weakened. The only thing that can render this outlook invalid is a scenario in which the price fails to go below the accumulation territory of 1.5400. Should that price territory get broken to the downside, the next target would be 1.5300.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
The northward outlook on this pair has held out longer than what most thought. The USDJPY pair has broken the great supply zone of 100.00 to the upside (the last time the price was above that market zone was April 2009). This means a renewed strength in the pair, and the next targets would be the supply zones of 102.00 and 103.00 respectively. Any bearish correction along the way may not drag the price downwards below the demand zone of 100.00

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
This cross trended very long in a sideways manner. Breaking out of the recent sideways phase, the pair is now caught in a serious buying pressure. Before this happened, there was constant indication that the breakout of the sideways phase would be in favor of the bulls, for the primary bullish trend is still valid. The price is above the demand level at 131.00 and could go on towards the supply level at 131.00.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“I don’t live and die by every strategy signal that I get.” - Anthony Crudele

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (May 20 - 24, 2013)

The currency markets are in vivid Trend Confirmation Patterns – both bearish and bullish. Recently, prices have become very volatile as they approach major accumulation and distribution territories. But it is expected that those territories would be breached as the markets go in the direction of the overall biases. Thus, market participants are bound to make more gains as they take more risk in the favor of the current biases. We’re naturally inclined to welcome gains and abhor losses, yet losses must be anticipated before gains can come. The less the magnitude of the stake, the less the expected returns and vice versa.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The EURUSD is bearish and it is expected to continue being so, even irrespective of the current volatility and turbulence in the markets. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart (as supported by the indicators). Any short-term rallies ought not to take the price above the resistance line of 1.3000, for the current outlook not to be in jeopardy. Meanwhile, the price could reach the support line of 1.2700 within the next several trading days.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
Some resistance levels are acting as a barrier to the bulls’ interest, but those levels would soon be breached to the upside. The bullish scenario continues to be valid, as the indicators as well support it. The ultimate target on this pair is 0.9800, in spite of the hurdles to be overcome. Foreseen bearish attempts would not take the price below the 0.9500, otherwise, there would be a serious threat to the bullish outlook.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The bears are still present here. They are not only present, but they hold sway and in the face of this, any short-term rallies would end up being fake-outs. Normally the short-term rallies are not supposed to push the price upwards beyond the distribution territory at 1.5400. There is a need for the price to go below the market territory at 1.5200, for the bears’ interest to continue. There must be perpetual price position below the aforementioned market territory.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Northward is the outlook on this popular major, though the price has not moved determinedly upwards in recent times. In spite of the recent volatility in the market, accompanied by a sideway move. One may think the market is indecisive, but one needs to be reminded that that was the condition on the market before the price zones at 100.00 and 102.00 were breached to the upside. The supply zone at 104.00 may soon suffer the same fate.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
This instrument has not made any significant bearish or bullish move within previous trading days, but the major outlook is bullish and it is expected to be so. In spite of stealth attacks from the bears, the bulls’ have succeeded in preventing the price to be dragged determinedly downwards. Now, it could be safely said that the demand level at 131.50 has been an effective check on the recent bearish attempts. The supply zone at 133.00 is the ultimate target.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Many active traders make the mistake of assuming that a winning system for swing trading… needs to be complicated. On the contrary, the best trading strategies are typically the most simple because they can be more easily and consistently followed.” – Deron Wagner

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (May 27 - 31, 2013)

The currency markets are experiencing sharp reversals in the face of major biases, which could be pullbacks or potentially new signals. If you look at your charts more carefully during a busy trading period, you would observe that instruments do not move in straight lines. This is a propensity in the markets; a major bias is punctuated with major or minor retracements, continuations and mean reversion movements.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
This recently bearish instrument has turned bullish – with the possibility of a bullish continuation. It could be safely said that there is a new ‘buy’ signal in the market. Both lagging and leading indicators have confirmed this. So it is expected that the nearest resistance lines would be breached to the upside as the bullish bias continues. The support line at 1.2900 should check any intermediate bearish threats.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
The USDCHF should normally go in a contrary direction to the EURUSD, but the bullish bias on the chart is still valid. However, the present bearish correction is so determined and serious to the extent of posing a great threat to the extant major northward outlook. The oscillators have already given the indication of a trend reversal, but the lagging indicators are yet to follow suit. Therefore, it would be OK for to wait for further confirmation before taking any position.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
This is a bear market and it could remain so for the next several trading days. The Cable has been plunging slowly and steadily. The issue is that, it would first go upwards on a short-term basis (giving a good chance to sell short), and that is what is happening right now. The price may not be able to reach the distribution territory 1.5200 before going downwards. Eventually the price may reach the accumulation territory at 1.5000, which is not a lofty target.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
Having given up about 2 weeks’ gain, this pair has been going downwards in some determined manner. After testing the supply level of 103.50, the price has dropped by approximately 200 pips before stabilizing. Since that bearish pullback was extremely serious, it has led to a new ‘sell’ signal on the chart. Right now, there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart; which gives a good opportunity for short sellers.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
The condition on this cross has remained wonderful for the most part of this month. For example, the bullish bias has been maintained in spite of the recent sideways moves and consolidations to the downside. Even the last significant pullback in the market has failed to lead to a clear bearish signal. Oscillators and lagging indicators are yet to generate a bearish signal, and for now, it may sound sagacious to stay out of the market until there is a clear indication.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Trading is ONLY about making money. If you can’t do it on a regular basis you are not a trader. Everything else is just conversation.” – Brian Lund

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (June 3 - 7, 2013)

Because of the weakness on the Greenback, the EURUSD and the GBPUSD have been bullish, whereas the USDCHF has been bearish. This outlook may be valid for the next several trading days. The JPY pairs also have the potential to maintain their extant outlook.

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
There is a bullish indication on the EURUSD, with the current Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. The price recently reached a weekly low of 1.2887 during a bearish retracement attempt, and it has been going upwards since then, to the point of generating a bullish signal. The price could reach the resistance lines at 1.3100 and 1.3200 respectively. During that attempt, any bearish correction along the way ought not to take the price below the support line of 1.2950.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
This is a bear market which has a Bearish Confirmation Pattern (as signified by the indicators). There was a recent clean rally in the market, reaching a peak of 0.9780, which was a weekly high. From that weekly high, the price has gone downwards by over 200 pips. This is an outlook that is supposed to continue to be valid. Eventually, the price may fall towards the support level at 0.9400.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
There is a new era for this wonderful pair. From the weekly low of 1.5008, the Cable has gone upwards by roughly 230 pips. There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, for the indicators now point to the bulls’ supremacy. The nearest target to be reached between now and the next several trading days is the distribution territory at 1.5300. Along the way, any potential bearish threats ought not to take the price below the accumulation territory of 1.5100.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
This is a bear market – something that could remain so. One reason behind this is the weakness of the Greenback. The Greenback is not strong enough to pull this pair higher, and as a result of this, there is still a bearish indication on the chart. It is advisable that only short trades ought to be sought here, unless otherwise indicated. The only thing that can render this possibility invalid is the condition in which the price breaks the supply level at 102.50 to the upside and closes above it.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
There is currently a degree of uncertainty on this cross. The new lease of strength in the EUR has made it possible to help the cross withstand bearish threats. So it can be said that the price has been bullish recently. The price has not gone upwards determinedly. Nevertheless, it is sagacious to seek long trades because there is a great probability that when the price does break out, it would be to the upside.
This article is concluded with the quote below:

“The key to success is to decide when to follow the crowd and when to go against it.” – Joe Ross

Source: Paxforex.com