Technical Forecasts In Currency Markets

Weekly Trading Update (January 14 – 18, 2013)


EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The pair moved up by more than 300 pips last week (January 7 – 11, 2013). All technical indicators that are put on this chart shows bullish confirmation pattern. The bullish scenario is expected to continue this week. Though there could be some pullbacks in the near-term, the next price target would easily be the resistance line at 1.3400 and then the resistance line at 1.3450.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
The USDCHF pair plummeted seriously last week; by close to 160 pips. All the technical indicators that are put on the USDCFH chart testify to a bearish confirmation pattern. It is still expected that the bearish plunge will continue, given the weakness in the USD. The next price level that would be reached this week is at the support level at 0.9100, and then the support level at 0.9000.


GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
Unlike the Euro, the Cable is not that strong versus the Greenback. Some bleak economic outlook might be responsible for this. Overall, the Cable was bullish last week, but not significantly. With some luck, perhaps the Cable could rise up a little bit more, especially if the Euro is also bullish this week. Otherwise, the Cable would trade sideways and oscillate between the distribution territory at 1.6200 and accumulation territory at 1.6100.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Far beyond expectations, the USDJPY continues to break one supply level after the other – to the upside. Well, there is no end in sight for this outlook. Because, all technical indicators that are put on the 4-hour chart will ultimately support the northward outlook. Should this outlook hold out long enough, the market might reach the supply zone at 90.00 this week, and then another supply zone at 90.50.


EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
The EURJPY, like most other JPY pairs, was also involved in some noteworthy northward outlook. The cross seems determined to go on being bullish, so the ultimate target for this week is at the supply zone around 119.50, and then the supply zone at 120.00. Since the cross moved up by more than 450 pips last week, this target is not far-fetched.

Conclusion: The world of speculation would go on being monitored, but it does not mean that the uncertainties of the future or downtrends would be removed. Sudden price moves occur in the trading world because of greed and fear – a phenomenon that is no longer new, as market players cause the markets to move as they call new trades and use modern electronic trading devices and core speculative strategies. Mostly, many traders, institutional and private, may not be able to move the markets always. Your mind ought to be made up even prior to risking your portfolio. Moreover, market players affirm that transactions would expose some part of their portfolios. If a day speculator stops their activities, even investors may not get the prices they want, and this would cause many adverse chain reaction, including unavailability of trends.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Overall, traders should make an effort to win the largest possible amounts in
their profitable trades and only have small losing trades.” – Marc Rivalland


Attribution: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (January 28 – February 1, 2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
This instrument traded in an equilibrium zone for most of the week. Then there was an upside breakout on Thursday (January 24, 2013). Technical indicators are in support of a bullish outlook – something that could go further up. As more buying pressures come into play, the price would not find it difficult to touch the resistance line at 1.3400, and should this be broken upwards, the next target would be 1.3450.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
In a rare circumstance (and it happens so), the USDCHF is in positive correlation with the EURUSD. This kind of rare scenario is, however, expected not to last too long. Based on the current rational outlook, it is probable that the USDCHF would trade downwards. It would be advised that speculators might want to stay out of this market until a clear bias is confirmed.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
Strange enough, this Cable is currently trading in a negative correlation mode to the EURUSD pair. While the outlook for the latter is bleak, the outlook for the former is bright. This kind of rare condition is significant for a reason: if it does not end dragging down the EURUSD, the Cable itself will end up in a serious bullish breakout. This will happen sooner or later within the timeframe forecasted.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Most analysts thought that the USDJPY had gone northwards too far, and that a breakdown was imminent. Owing to the consolidation that was characteristic of most of the last week, it was supposed that the trend would turn doggedly bearish. When logical traders were waiting for a confirmation of this, the price broke out to the upside. The price would continue going upwards and would not find it difficult to touch the psychological level at 100.00.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Like the USDJPY (and most other JPY pairs), when bearish confirmation pattern was being awaited on the EURJPY cross, there was a significant breakout towards the north. Those who waited for a bearish confirmation before they could open a short trade were spared. That is why it is logical to wait for some confirmation before joining the trend. The price zone at 120.00 has been broken to the upside; the next target is easily 130.00.

Conclusion: Whatever happens in higher timeframes first started in lowers timeframes. A speculator who has gotten some time on her/his side ought to see the beginning of a new market bias and capitalize on it as soon as practicable. When the bias has run its course, the best of the time should have been made.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Initially, trading looked like a way to help me maintain my standard of living in retirement. That view began to shift as I progressed through my corporate career. I worked 60 to 80 hours a week, but when review time came around, I was getting less than 1%-2% in annual raises. I realized that if I learned how to trade well, I could put in less time and have a much better return on that time.” – Frank Eaves (Vantharp.com)

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (February 11 - 15, 2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
Recently, the EURUSD started to experience a kind of negligible reversal in the market. But this seemingly negligible reversal has turned out to be significant enough to render the major bullish outlook useless. Based on what is happening on the chart, long trades are no more useful on this market: short trades should be sought. There has now been a bearish confirmation signal, which may take the market to the support line at 1.3300.


USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
Surprisingly, the major bias on the USDCHF is valid (just like that of its EURUSD counterpart). Normally, the USDCHF ought to go up as the EURUSD went down, but the former has simply range-traded recently. A long trade is imminent, but not yet recommended until further price action confirms that a new northward possibility has come to stay. For this to be true, the price would need to cross the resistance level at 0.9300 and go further upwards.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
Despite some recent bullish attempts on the Cable, the trend remains bearish. Should the EURUSD continue its bearish journey, the pressure might drag the Cable itself downwards. The indicators on the chart still support the southward possibility. However, for an absence of a serious threat to the current outlook, the price should not cross the market territory at 1.5800 to the upside.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
The bullish bias is still valid here and it is something that should not be underrated. Though, recently, the bullish attempts have been weak (neither has the price been able to assume any noteworthy southward possibility). When breaking the supply level at 94.00 to the upside, the price should head up towards another supply level at 95.00, for the current outlook to be valid. There is a possibility of the price retracing towards the demand level at 93.00, however.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
It is not an exaggeration to say that the situation on the EURJPY remains tricky – just as it is tricky on all other JPY pairs. The overall trend is still bullish, whereas the current market outlook is not to be neglected. During the recent correction, the cross gave up its weekly gains and dropped by over 100 pips further! The price ought to continue staying above the price market zone 124.00; otherwise it would be a serious threat to the overall bullish trend.

Conclusion: As a result of the foregoing, should you be capable of pinpointing the general outlook for a particular instrument, coupled with the understanding of the big picture, you could eventually have a very high hit rate as you go with the flow of the markets. Should a particular outlook be significant enough to whack those going against it, then the result should be seen as a normal part of this popular business.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Trading with the trend offers by far the highest probability of success and it also offers the highest potential rewards.” – Nick McDonald



Source: Paxforex.com

 

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Weekly Trading Forecasts (February 25 – March 1, 2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The EURUSD traded in a significant downwards move recently – a bias that is ever valid. The indicators on the chart now give a vivid support of the bears’ hegemony. The price has already broken the support line at 1.3300 to the downside, and the next target would be the support line at 1.3100. In the near term, however, there could be some bullish retracements which are not expected to take the price higher than the resistance line at 1.3200.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
This pair was able to completely shrug off the equilibrium forces that were impeding its bullish determination. There has now been a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and the ‘buy’ signal is still pretty new. Though, there could be some pullbacks that would try to take the price downwards towards the support level at 0.9300, eventually, the price could reach the resistance level at 0.9400 within the next several trading days.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
So far in this year, the Cable has dropped by close to 700 pips (a scenario that remains extant). All trend-following indicators are pointing to a weak market, especially given the bleak economic outlook and fundamental data that are coming from the UK. There has been a temporary ‘upward bounce’ of the price from the accumulation territory of 1.5150. And this proffers an opportunity to buy higher in the context of an ongoing downtrend. The market could reach the accumulation territory at 1.5000 eventually.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
There appears to be a new short selling indication on the USDJPY chart, although the long-term outlook is bullish. For the past 3 weeks, this pair has found it difficult to trend significantly higher: it rarely went above the supply of 94.00. With all possibility, the potential is more to the south, because buyers seem to have thinned out. This could be a unique opportunity to enter on the side of the sellers while the price of the USDJPY is still dear. Should this outlook hold on for a few more days, then the bullish trend is over.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
On this instrument, the price recently dropped by nearly 300 pips! This was a significant downtrend move in the context of abortive bullish attempts. Right now, there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, which means that the trend has completely changed and one would need to seek short trades only. There could be some transient rallies in this market, but they are not supposed to take the price up beyond the supply zone of 124.00. This is a bear market, and the price might eventually reach a target of 121.00.

Conclusion: The more buying or selling pressure is perceived, the more activities are carried out by bulls and bears. This means that bulls and bears strive to get fair values for their bids and offers. On the other hand, if the price doesn’t stay long at a noteworthy market level and fails to go back to that level in a given time horizon, there mayn’t be much equilibrium phase as far as the market is concerned. This means that the bears think the price has gone too far to the upside and they refuse to transact further, or the bulls think that the price has gone too far to the downside, and thereby refusing to do further transaction.

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (March 4 - 8, 2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
This pair has trended downwards recently, with each intermittent rally providing a great opportunity to sell short. However, the downtrend has not been so strong because the price has hardly gone below the support line at 1.3000. The major bias remains bearish and it ought to continue so. Eventually, the price might broke the support line of 1.3000 to the downside and eventually close below it. Then the next target could be the support line at 1.2900.


USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
This market has been able to uphold it bullish bias so far. The price has not gone too far, and therefore, has more room to go. Recently, the bullish journey has been tardy, but sure. At the time of preparing this article, the price was above the resistance level at 0.9300; it would not be difficult for it to break the resistance levels at 0.9400 and 0.9500 to the upside.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
All indicators on the Cable show a downtrend. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. This bias will continue to drag on; even any short-term rally would be a great indication to open a short trade. So, in spite of the current weak rally, the price is expected to plunge and break the accumulation territory at 1.5100 to the downside. If the price is able to close below that accumulation territory, the next target would be the price territory at 1.5000.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
The bullish trend is over on this pair, but the current bearish scenario is under a serious threat, owing to some northward correction on the USDJPY, following its significant bearish plunge on February 25, 2013. No matter what, one should not seek long trades on this pair until a clearer signal is generated. Right now, it’s more probable that when there is another significant movement on the USDJPY, it would be in favor of sellers.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
This cross experienced a serious bearish run on February 25, 2013. That day alone, the price nosedived by over 500 pips! After this, the price tried to recover a small part of this huge loss. Interestingly, what looks like a rally now is another good opportunity to sell short, for indicators on the chart confirm that the bearish scenario is extant. The price may eventually break the demand zone at 120.00 to the downside, heading towards the demand zone at 119.00.

Conclusion: The world of speculation is there as a result of the battle of the bull and the bear. Whenever there are buying and selling activities, there would be gainers and losers. Both buyers and sellers cannot make gains at exactly the same time, since the market either goes northwards or southwards. Also, when the market is in an equilibrium phase, there would be buying and selling activities on a very short-term basis. This shows that both the bear and the bull are still active.



Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (March 11 - 15, 2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
There has been a recent potential reversal on this pair. The bullish reversal is noteworthy, but not significant enough to override the major bearish outlook. It is better to wait for further confirmation before new positions are opened (at least for a few more trading days). Whether the current scenario is a transitory rally in the context of a downtrend or it is the beginning of a new trend remains to be seen.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
Despite the current pullback in the market, the long-term bullish bias on the USDCHF still holds. Since the beginning of February 2013, this pair has moved upwards by more than 300 pips – a slow but steady progress indeed! Right now, the pullback in the market is not expected to go below the support level at 0.9400 or at worst, it should be halted by the immediate support level at 0.9350, after that. It is expected that this pair goes in a continuous bullish journey.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The Cable continues its weakness – a scenario that is expected to hold out longer than this. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, as indicators support a bearish bias. Any rally in this market is simply an opportunity to sell short and sell dearer. The trend is never over until it is actually over, so it is possible for the price to reach the next accumulation zone at 1.4900 in the long run.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
This is a bull market, and it has risen by around 170 pips recently. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart; the price is still expected to continue going upwards. There could be some temporary bearish corrections pulling the price backwards to the market levels at 94.50 and 94.00 respectively. But eventually, the buying pressure should push the price towards the supply levels of 95.50 and 96.00.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
This cross traded in some tight range recently, before the price broke the market zone of 122.00 to the upside. Shortly after this, the price shot northwards by more than 250 pips on Thursday (March 7, 2013). Now, the new bullish signal has been confirmed. This seems to just be the beginning, and while transient bearish corrections could occur along the way, the price may trend upwards and reach the supply zones of 125.00 and 126.00.

Conclusion: The major bias would invariably exert a strong influence on the possibility of profitability of your speculative methodology. We cannot afford to use a method suitable for an equilibrium market when following a great trend; which means that a trading method suitable for equilibrium markets ought to be used in equilibrium markets. Nevertheless, should the price show any sign of great momentum, it should be followed.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Your goal should be optimal profits, not emotional comfort.” - Ziad Masri


Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (March 18 - 22, 2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
Though the primary trend on this pair is bearish, the trend is in a serious jeopardy. There is currently a conspicuous rally on this pair: oscillators have given a bullish signal but momentum indicators like long-term MAs are yet to confirm that. Trading an unconfirmed bias is not recommended at this stage. Should this rally continue further for a few more days, it would see the end of the current bearish outlook. Therefore, it is advisable to wait for further confirmation before opening a new order.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
In the opposite manner, the outlook on this market is nearly similar to that of the EURUSD. There has been a significant bearish pull on the pair; the oscillators support this, including the price action. It is more likely that this bearish pull would continue, but it is wiser to wait for further confirmation of the supposedly new trend before taking any action. As soon as this is confirmed, the primary bullish trend would be over and short trades would be sought.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
This formerly helpless instrument, which has been battered by the bulls, is now exuding some form of protracted stamina. There has been a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and long trades are recommended now. This is still a pretty new trend and it is best to take advantage of it when the price yet remains in its trough. Indicators (including oscillators and momentum technical tools) support this new outlook. Very soon, the price would reach the distribution zone of 1.5300.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
In recent times, the price on this pair has been moving in a sideways manner. At the time of writing this article, there has neither been a break above the resistance level of 96.50 nor a break below the support level of 95.50. What can be said is that, though the market is in a form of consolidation, the primary trend remains bullish. So when there is a break out of the consolidation, it would possibly be to the upside.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Like most JPY pairs, this cross is in a bullish mode, for the indicators on the chart confirm this as the primary trend. There is still a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, so the price is expected to continue its journey upwards. There would be some bearish corrections along the way, but these would be transitory (not expected to take the price below the market zones of 125.00 or 124.50). Eventually, the price would reach the supply zones of 126.00 and 127.00 respectively.

Conclusion: It does not make sense to keep on following a direction that is no longer valid. Whenever there is a shortage of speculators to continue going in certain direction, the existence of that market direction would be jeopardized. When the price movement is rejected at a significant market level, it is most likely that the trend would turn at that level… In the face of new biases, there would usually be corrections - a result of struggle between the bulls and the bears and medium-term smoothing of positions.


Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (March 25 - 29, 2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The dominant bias here is bearish, and this is expected to continue, especially in the face of perpetual weakness in the Euro. There could, however, be some short-term rallies in the price, probably taking the price towards the resistance line of 1.3000. For the bearish trend to be valid, the rally ought not to go beyond the aforementioned resistance line. Meanwhile, the price could reach the support line of 1.2800 in the trading days to come.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
Recently, the USDCHF pair has traded in a tight range. The pair is expected to shoot out of the equilibrium zone very soon. When this does happen, it is more likely that the pair would go northwards, for the indicators on the chart confirm northward possibility in the market (especially as long as the USD has more stamina than the CHF). Any short-term pullbacks are not supposed to take the price more downwards than the support level 0.9400, while the bullish pressure may take the price towards the resistance level of 0.9550.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The trend on the Cable is now bullish and would continue to be bullish. Recently, this wonderful instrument has moved upwards by more than 110 pips, even in the face of recent volatility and turbulence. The indicators on the chart shows a Bullish Confirmation Pattern, plus the current event in the market has proven that buyers have been able to reject any bearish threats. The price may soon reach the distribution territory at 1.5300.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
There is a ‘sell’ signal on every JPY pair and the USDJPY is no exception. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and it would sound judicious to seek short trades at this moment. In spite of transitory rally that may take the price to some supply level of 95.50, the demand level at 94.00 is not a lofty target, and further southward determination may bring the price towards that area (in due course).


EURJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
There is also a bearish signal on this cross. With the current Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart (indicators support a bearish bias), the price actions that support the bears would not be a surprise, should the price plunge towards the demand zone of 121.00. It must also be added that there would be some serious volatility along the way. In the near-term, any bullish correction could take the price back towards the supply zone of 123.00, but this is not expected to last too long. In the meantime, the price ought to reach the aforementioned, price zone.

Conclusion: If it happens that a price penetrates an accumulation or distribution territory, breaking through some important levels or shooting out of an equilibrium zone, it usually behaves with some intensity. Following this first shooting out, the price may slow down in its momentum. This is to allow it to decide that the novel bias is tenable. The price may revert towards, or even breach, the recent high or low in the market. Should a speculator who is caught in a wrong direction smooth his positions, and other speculators enter the market in favor of the novel bias, the price might be given a new lease of stamina as it shoots out again, going in the direction of the new bias. At this juncture, traders are advised to stay with the novel direction, not speculating in a contrarian manner towards it.


Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts (April 1 - 5, 2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The outlook on the EURUSD is bearish. Recently, the market dropped by more than 230 pips from the weekly high of 1.3046. Further bearish plunge is expected, but not without short-term rallies which would invariably proffer good opportunities to sell short in a downtrend. The indicators on the chart confirm this bearish scenario and the price could plunge towards the support line of 1.2700. In the near-term, any short-term rallies are not expected to take the price above the resistance line at 1.2900.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
Due to its inherent nature, I would like to term this unique pair as being slow and tardy. The outlook here is bullish, but we would do well to note that, no price moves in a straight line (no not one). This means that, now and then, there would be some southward retracement in the price, which is not expected to go below the support level at 0.9450. Since any bearish correction would proffer an opportunity to go long in the face of the extant outlook, the price may go upwards towards the resistance level of 0.9600 (in the next several trading days to come).

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
In spite of the recent turbulence in the market, in which the bear occasionally dominated the bull, the major bias on the Cable is to the upside. The indicators on the chart show a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. In recent times, serious bearish pressure nearly rendered the bullish outlook totally invalid, but the bull came back and pushed the price upwards. Because of the currently dismal outlook on Europe, the expected further bullish run on the market would not be that much strong. But at least, the price would reach the distribution territory at 1.5300.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
Recently, the pair has traded in a sideways manner. Overall, the price has not gone above the supply level at 95.00 and neither has it gone below the demand level at 93.50. There must be a clear break above or below one of the aforementioned levels before there can be a clearer direction in the market. If none of the supply and demand levels mentioned here is broken, then note that the market is still in an equilibrium phase. However, I would like to mention that it is more likely for the price to break below the demand level of 93.50 when a breakout does occur, for the major outlook on the USDJPY market is bearish.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
This cross has lately dropped by more than 300 pips! There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, for the indicators support this. Even, in the face of this strong bearish pressure, the price has not been able to break the demand zone at 120.00 to the downside. This is a significant barrier in the current scenario: for the bearish outlook to continue to be valid, the price must break the demand zone at 120.00 to the downside, closing below it and trading further downwards. Before this can be done, there would be a serious struggle between the bear and the bull, but it must be done, for the general bearish outlook on this cross not to be in jeopardy.


Source: Paxforex.com