Technical Forecasts In Currency Markets

Daily Trading Forecasts (December 19, 2012)

Most currency instruments have continued in their biases - significantly. JPY pairs have also continued their northward biases. But at this junction, one would need to apply skill and adeptness, because the markets are now at important resistance levels.

EURUSD: This pair is still in its northward bias - relentlessly. The EMA 11 remains above the EMA 56, as the RSI period 14 remains in the overbought territory. There could be some pullback in the trend, reaching the support line at 1.3200 in the short-term. But the northward journey is expected to resume, and the next target is the resistance line at 1.3250.

USDCHF: The USDCHF trended downwards precipitously. The price is below the level at 0.9150, trying to go towards the level at 0.9100. The RSI period 14 has long been in the oversold region (something that portends some bullish rally in the near-term). Should the bearish trend resume, the market would continue falling.

GBPUSD: The price on the GBPUSD trended upwards strongly on Tuesday and settled around the distribution zone at 1.6250. There have been a lot of activities among buyers and sellers around this zone. Should the price succeed in leaving this zone upwards, the next target would be the accumulation zone at 1.6300.

USDJPY: The USDJPY trended upwards on Tuesday, breaking the territory at 84.00 to the upside. The price is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is close to the level 70, i.e. the overbought region. This means that the bullish signal is still valid. Therefore, the next target in the price could be the supply territory at 84.50.

EURJPY: On Tuesday, the EURJPY moved upwards by around 100 pips, breaking the zone at 111.00 to the upside as it targets the supply zone at 111.50. The EMAs still support a clear northward outlook, while the Williams’ % Range stays in the overbought region. Once again, the market can still move upwards.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (December 20, 2012)

The markets ran into important distribution territories on Wednesday, and further bullish moves were halted. This could, nevertheless, be transient. Moreover, certain fundamental figures are expected to be released today, like Retail Sales m/m (affecting the Cable), Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (affecting the Greenback).

EURUSD: This bullish instrument had its northward journey rejected at the resistance line of 1.3300. It then fell by 100 pips and hit the supply line at 1.3200. The bullish outlook still holds, especially as long as the price stays above the line at 1.3200. It is expected that the price could go back towards the resistance line at 1.3300, unless the Greenback gains some strength.

USDCHF: Further bearish plunge was rejected at the support level at 0.9100, as the RSI period 14 reverts back from the oversold condition. This bullish rally was checked at the level at 0.9150, but should the price break it to the upside, the next target could be the resistance level at 0.9200. This would happen only when the Greenback gains some stamina – the indicators on the chart shows bearish possibility.

GBPUSD: More bullish attempt was also checked on the Cable (at the distribution zone of 1.6300). The price dipped and was held at the zone at 1.6250. The bullish signal is still valid, and should the price dip further, it is not expected to go below the accumulation zone at 1.6200. Eventually, the price should go back upwards to test the distribution zone at 1.6300.

USDJPY: On the USDJPY, the upward journey in the market was stopped temporarily at the supply territory of 84.50. The price then dropped and rested on the territory at 84.00. The bullish possibility is still extant on the chart (as confirmed by the indicators), and therefore, the price could go back towards the supply territory at 84.50.

EURJPY: At the supply zone of 112.50, the EURJPY plunged downwards by approximately 150 pips, touching the demand zone at 111.00. The price could go back towards the north (the bullish outlook is still valid on the chart), unless there comes some boost of the JPY strength.

 

Currency Markets Review (December 26, 2012)

Surprisingly, there formed gaps on some currency pairs and crosses. This means that serious volatility and movements can be anticipated on Thursday and Friday. Whatever has happened today would be the harbinger of the movements for the rest of this week.

EURUSD: No gap was formed on the EURUSD – a pair that went in a range for most of today. The indicators on the chart show that the bullish outlook is still sensible. Right now, the price is above the resistance line of 1.3200.

USDCHF: The USDCHF also experienced no gap but consolidated to the downside. The bearish propensity still exists on the chart, and it seems that the support level at 0.9100 would be the next target. Yes, sellers are still in control.

GBPUSD: A new ‘sell’ signal has formed on the Cable. The EMA 11 has just crossed the EMA 56 to the downside, as the Williams’ % Range has gone into the oversold territory. The price tested the accumulation level at 1.6100: it is going back to that level to test it again.

USDJPY: .There is a noteworthy gap on the USDJPY – just as it appears on all other JPY pairs and certain crosses. The market traded upwards after the gap, staying above the territory at 85.50. The next target would be the supply territory at 86.00.

EURJPY: This cross also opened with a gap and traded upwards. This means that the market would likely go on in that direction. The indication of the northward bias remains vivid. The price is above the supply zone at 113.00, and would reach the zone at 113.50 in a due course.

 

so basiccally if it goes down, and support doesn't hold it could go even lower

but if it goes up and can't break resistance it could start going back down

fascinating

who writes your material?

or is it all original?

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (December 27, 2012)

Following the gaps that occurred yesterday, noteworthy volatility and movements should occur in the markets between today and tomorrow. This view is valid, especially given some important fundamental data coming out of the US today (affecting the Greenback). Some of the figures are: Unemployment Claims, CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, etc.

EURUSD: There is still a bullish scenario on the EURUSD. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, while the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The price is close to the resistance line of 1.3250: it may eventually succeed in breaking it to the upside, after which it would go for the resistance line at 1.3300.

USDCHF: There is still a valid bearish Continuation Confirmation Pattern on the USDCHF. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The price seems to be consolidating right now, but it will eventually get to the support level at 0.9100.

GBPUSD: As it was mentioned in the Currency Market Review yesterday, the Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable still holds – irrespective of the consolidation that seems to be taking place right now. The price zone at 1.6150 could halt any further bullish propensity, whereas the price would need to overcome the barrier at the accumulation zone at 1.6100 before finding the next move downwards.

USDJPY: Following the gap that occurred yesterday, this pair traded upwards. The northward outlook still holds. But there is a possibility of a temporary pullback or sideways movement, because the RSI period 14 has moved into the overbought area, i.e. above the level 70.

EURJPY: Since the gap that happened on Wednesday, this instrument has traded upwards for more than 100 pips. The northward bias is very much conspicuous. But there is also a possibility of a pullback or consolidation in the near-term. The price currently hovers around the supply zone at 113.57. Whenever this is overcome, the next target would be the supply zone at 114.00.

 

Daily Trading Forecasts (December 28, 2012)

The markets have been able to maintain their major biases this week, except in some cases. It is likely that these biases would continue today, though that does not rule out the possibility of pullbacks or consolidation in the near-term.

EURUSD: The bullish bias on the EURUSD still holds – in spite of the pullback that occurred on Thursday. The pullback was halted at the support line at 1.3200. This price line could serve as the entry area for those who would like to open new long orders.

USDCHF: There is yet a bearish confirmation scenario on this pair – albeit the whole scenario looks precarious. There was a rally in the markets yesterday, and it was checked at the resistance zone of 0.9150. That area could serve as a good entry point for those who would prefer to open new long orders.

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD continued it southward plunge on Thursday. The price touched the distribution zone of 1.6200 before skydiving to break below the accumulation zone of 1.6100. Right now, the price remains below that level, and should the price continue the southward determination, it might reach the accumulation zone at 1.6050.

USDJPY: In spite of the fact that the RSI period 14 is already in the overbought area, i.e. above 80, the northward bias on this pair is still relevant. However, the overbought condition means that there could be some pullback or consolidation in the near-term. Should the price move upwards eventually, it would reach the supply territory at 86.50.

EURJPY: On the chart, the long signal is still tenable (in spite of the Williams’ % Range being in the overbought area and the price itself far above the 2 EMAs). The price has already touched the supply zone at 114.00, retraced downwards a little, and is poised to go back towards that zone. When this is broken – irrespective of any further pullback – the next target could be 114.50.

 

Annual Trading Reviews on Major Pairs (2012)


EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
From January to February 2012, the EURUSD went up. Then it fell by over 1400 pips, i.e. between February and July. Since then the EURUSD has been caught in slow but steady bullish pressure. From July to September, the pair rose by more than 1000, before it consolidated slightly to the downside. The consolidation to the downside took place between September and November – something that saw a loss of over 400 pips. Right now, the pair is upwards, and as a result of this, we have what can be called a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. Clearly, this is a bull market.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
There has been some perpetual bearish pressure on the USDCHF, showing the bears’ hegemony. From January to February 2012, the price fell by more than 600 pips. And from that period till April, it was in an equilibrium mode. Then it rose by over 800 pips (that was from April to July). Since then, the price has fallen by close to 800 pips. Yes, this is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. Nevertheless, one should note that the price is going towards a major psychological level – something of a recalcitrant accumulation zone. The zone is the price level at 0.9000.


GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The Cable has been volatile in the year 2012; extremely volatile. The price actions included sharp declines and well as northward upsurges. From January to April 2012, the price rallied by over 1000 pips. After that, the price plunged by more than 1000 pips, especially in the month of May. From May to September, the price rose by another 1000 pips. Then it fell by another 400 pips (from September to November). Currently, the price is engaged in some northward attempts, though in a volatile mode. What is happening right now shows that buying pressure is extant.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
This is a bull market, a significant bull market. One should not assume that the market is overbought, because it has much room to go. From January to March, the USDJPY rose by more than 600 pips. It then fell by 600 pips (Between March and May), and range-traded from then till July. Since July till now, the price has shot upwards by over 800 pips. While some indicators are showing overbought conditions on this pair, the price continues going upwards. One reason for this is because of perpetual weakness in the Yen. It is likely that the price would reach the resistance zone at 87.00.


EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
From July 2012 till now, the EURJPY has moved upwards by more than 1800 pips, whereas from April to July, it fell by over 1600 pips! The bullish outlook is still valid. We should also note that, this same cross rose by close to 1400 pips from January to March. All JPY pairs are bullish, just as it has been said earlier. One wonderful thing about this unique class of pairs is that, in most cases, the weakness in the Yen would signify bull markets on all JPY pairs, while the strength in the Yen would make the pairs plummet. That is why those who trade JPY pairs can make hefty gains if they are caught the right direction.



Conclusion: It would be assumed that the current market biases would continue going as such, until there would be some confirmed reversals in the markets. When this happens, the bearish runs would be noteworthy. Moreover, the markets tend to skydive (go southwards) more rapidly than they shoot up (go northwards). To make the markets go upwards, there is a need for more buying pressure, generated by bulls, so that they can offer higher prices than the existing speculators. This scenario also has its boundaries. As soon as shorts trades are called, the boundaries would not matter as such. Please do not forget that you cannot outwit the markets. However, you can become victorious if you know how to truncate losing trades and allow winning trades to run.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Only if I learn from my mistakes and look for the reasons why I have missed certain sharp price movements can I improve my trading!” – Faik Giese

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Signal (December 3, 2013)

EURGBP: SELL
There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the EURGBP chart as this analysis shows. 2 indicators are used (coupled with price action): the Simple Moving Average (SMA) period 21 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) period 20. The price had been going upwards until the last week. The horizontal red line at the upper side of the chart shows where further rally was rejected. On December 28, 2012, the price started coming down. That same day, the price crossed the SMA 21 to the downside and closed below it. At this time too, the RSI 20 has crossed the level 50 downwards. On January 2, 2013, the price gapped down significantly, showing strong bearish pressure. There could be a short trade, with stop loss around 0.83000, while targeting the price level at 0.75110. At the time of writing this forecast, the EURGBP was trading at 0.81119.

Source: Paxforex.com

 

Annual Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (2013)

EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The EURUSD has been in a moderate bullish mode – save for the last bearish week (December 31, 2012 – January 4, 2013). Really the moderate bullish outlook still has much room to go, but there would be some serious short-term and medium term pullbacks along the way. These pullbacks could provide nice opportunities for day traders to make some quick bucks. The short-term pullback could take the price downwards to the support line of 1.3000, while the medium-term pullback could take it downwards towards the support line of 1.2500. Generally, this year’s rallies could take the pair towards the resistance line at 1.4000.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
The USDCHF pair has been caught in some moderate bearish mode – save for the last bullish week (December 31, 2012 – January 4, 2013). Ultimately, the price on this market could fall towards the support level at 0.8000, even breaking it downwards in this year. We should note that this assumption does not rule out the possibilities of short-term and medium term rallies in this context of the overall southward bias. These rallies could take the price to the support levels at 0.9500 in the near term and 0.9900 in the medium term. But the US Dollar and the Swiss Franc would not come to parity this year.


GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The Cable is in for an exciting year, as a new Governor of the Bank of England is expected to assume office by the middle of this year. There are chins in the air, and I can say without mincing words that the Cable would trend upwards for the most past of the year 2013 – though there would be some southward corrections along the way. The corrections might push the price lower to the accumulation zone at 1.6000, and another accumulation zone at 1.5500 (this may be the worse-case scenario for the year). Normally, the primary trend should take the price towards the distribution zone at 1.7000.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
For about 15 weeks, this pair has been in a significant bullish mode. Can we say that the price has gone too far (when most indicators are showing overbought conditions)? Nope. It is yet assumed that the price would continue going upwards, and may do so for the rest of this year. At least this rally would eventually reach the supply territory at 89.00; going towards the supply territory of 90.00. The northward move would be slow but steady. On the downside, some near-term and medium-term bearish retracements could take the price towards the demand territories at 88.00 and 87.50 respectively.


EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
This cross is in a bullish mode, and would be predominantly bullish for the most part of this year, with some pullbacks along the way. Talking about these expected pullbacks, the price might retrace towards the demand territory at 115.00 in the near term. Experienced intraday market speculators would be proffered with excellent money-making opportunities when these pullbacks materialize. In the medium term, it might pull back towards the supply territory at 114.00. But in the long term, the primary trend might push the price upwards to the supply territory at 116.00, and eventually towards another supply territory at 117.00.

Conclusion: Current price levels are the products of buying and selling pressures in the markets. When there is a long trading signal, there would be a pullback at some point. This is the ideal place to enter a new long order (the same is also true of short side). For the analyses above, weekly charts are used.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Technical analysis is like a set of headlights on a car. It doesn't show you all the way home, but it does illuminate a patch of ground ahead, allowing you to drive more safely, as long as you do it at a reasonable speed.” – Dr. Alexander Elder

Acknowledgement: Paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Signal (January 9, 2013)

CHFJPY: SELL
In the past few weeks, the CHFJPY cross was in an overall bullish mode. Just above the price zone of 95.50, and before the price could get to the supply zone of 96.00, further bullish bias was rejected. From this phase, the price nosedived by around 150 pips (though not without some intermittent rallies). Last week, the price fell below the Exponential Moving Average 21, but the RSI period 14 did not fall below the level 50, which revealed the price action as a false signal. This week, the price fell below the EMA 21 again, and this time around the RSI period 14 plummeted below the level 50. It can be seen that the price has closed below the EMA 21: this is a ‘sell’ signal. One may target the demand zone at 90.00 – the stop might be put at the supply zone at 96.00. The price is currently at 94.34.
Chart: 4 hour

Attribution: Paxforex.com