Technical case for the top being in?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by swtrader, Sep 17, 2009.

  1. moment of truth is upon us

    6 points below
     
    #21     Sep 30, 2009
  2. tell me that little 'jam job' on the shorts just before noon wasnt an attempt to close above it
     
    #22     Sep 30, 2009
  3. i'm calling it - the top is in

    i'm putting my reputation, as an anonymous person on the internet, on it
     
    #23     Sep 30, 2009
  4. FB123

    FB123

    I do agree that it looks a bit different this time, and that makes me VERY cautious on the long side at this point. However, I'm wouldn't call a final top just yet. It is definitely possible and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see it tank from here, but I also wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this was one final setup to screw the shorts before a true blowoff top. A manipulated market is VERY difficult to judge on a daily time frame, and this is one of the most manipulated markets in history.
     
    #24     Sep 30, 2009
  5. they definately borked the shorts today
     
    #25     Sep 30, 2009
  6. I believe in many ways the 20 month moving average was a magnet as much as it is resistence

    once the market hit that milestone.....

    by any technical definition, it's still a bear market

    did anyone really think the bear was going to end in one long uninterrupted run?
     
    #26     Oct 1, 2009
  7. vix sure is waking up
     
    #27     Oct 1, 2009
  8. I do not use classical TA methods anymore. So I have no charts to share with MA`s or Oscillators.

    But here is how i`m reading things. We are just pulling back. And we will move sideways/vacillate for a few months then resume trend.

    The majority of this move has happened on declining volume (IMO = non believers). And as most majors trends occur, the least amount of participants are involved. The non-believers will now take the chance to get short. They will look good for a spell as the mkt finds a pivot support level. Then they will have their heads ripped off... This will bring in the increasing volume most technicians look for in a trend..buying will beget buying.

    Anyhow, i`m talking my book and positioned long here from lower prices and adding today.

    Good trading to you no matter what your opinion is.
     
    #28     Oct 1, 2009
  9. the ocillators on those charts is more just lazyness of not taking them off

    i really never look at them any more, becasue they lag too much

    but i do very much believe in the signifigance of monthly MAs
     
    #29     Oct 1, 2009
  10. in all this time, every close across the 20 month ma has been a major change in trend
     
    #30     Oct 5, 2009