How is looking for an explanation in hindsight smart? Why don't you try yourself on a chart and predict tomorrow's moves using technical analysis?
Lol let the games begin...I have a sense you are up to a strong start. Unfortunately we will never see your trading account as proof of a 70 year old trying to convince beginners that TA works...sad really...
The nature of developing models requires analyzing history. It's imprudent to publish specifics other than wild speculation about direction because entry, stop and exit add non-random history.
If you don't find any value in my notes you're free to skip over them. Or you may if you prefer attempt to discourage me from posting as you're doing here and I might indeed begin posting less but you're competing with the fact writing out my thoughts in this manner has been an immense help to me thus far because I've had to formalize many of my ideas into a format others might appreciate. I continue to gain by participating here but it is a distraction and I should focus on the fact I already have enough models and processes for creating new models that the value of participating here is waning to the point I intend to stop sharing soon so move along or stay if you prefer but think about basing your actions on some constructive path you want to be on.
Whwhwhwhaaaaat? Are you trying to say something or prefer to obfuscate? If the latter why even participating in this thread?
I do not discourage you in any way... And the only on topic point I got from your invaluable notes so far is that OP's posted chart is BEAUTIFUL. Please remind me if I missed out on any more insightful and important analyses of yours.
A trendline break does not mean trend-change, it just means momentum has decelerated and then new ones can be created; sample attached.
I realise that, exactly why in my previous post in my thread I stated that a horizontal key zone break and close of monthly bar will constitute a trend change, which hasn't happened yet. It did happen in S&P Banking Index though. I've named the thread 'spot the bear' and that's exactly what it is about at this stage and events that led to the August sell off.