http://www.dailyspeculations.com/Letter/taforum.htm You may want to read this discussion on technical analysis vs. statistical methods.
hey, dave g is me in that article. it is a fascinating discussion, i was privileged to be involved. ENJOY !!!! surfer
All foods (particularly from the nature) are basically edible things, otherwise people (who may have individual preferences on different kinds of foods) would not eat them for such a long time in our human history.
I need Gordon Gekko and Aphie to read this and refine it down to 1000 words (or less). What's the essence here? I smell a "holy grail" hidden somewhere in all those words. Uncover it guys! C'mon! Hey, if I were as young as you guys, and had the time you guys have (not to mention the brains), I would do it myself. But alas, this is not the case. So hook a brother up, and give me the skinny on the discussion. Keep it simple. Simple enough for me to understand (I know it won't be easy, but hey, if anyone can do it, you guys can). Thanks in advance, RS
This entire discussion seems like a lot of mental masturbation to me. A speculator need only define the path of least resistance, and if their is a low risk / high reward entry in that direction -- then trade in accord wit it, if not, then you sit. Thats it. Thats the way I use a chart. I wouldn't say this constitutes TA exactly, but the visual manifestation of the tape, on a time/price type scale, allows me to gain my feel. If I were forced to though, I could probably trade much the same way I do now without them. But this is what I am comfortable with and so I go with it. Reading Vic, you would think you can't make money using a chart as your primary medium though, which imo is ridiculous. Implying that charts are somehow useless is parallel to implying that markets are not moved by crowd psychology and supply/demand. Yes Vic, charts are laced and embedded with deceit, but so is the market; for if it were anyother way, she would not eat up 90% of the participants that engage in action. the best speculators have learned to deceive the deceivers... I know that none of my methods could be systemized or quantified without my belly and I have no interest in ever doing such; for I have invested a great deal of time/money on my belly. If Vic or any of his disciples feel that a chart coupled with good old experience cannot yield profits, then I invite them to come visit my office and I will show them 7 straight years of tax returns - this offer was already extended to my friend Surfer. This entire notion of better/best and this whole vs. thing is silly. If a trader can use one way to make money, and not another, then how could there be an objective way to size one up against another??? Crunching numbers in order to find some small consitencey in the movement simply does not sound like much fun to me. For me a chart is a combination of the ultimate jig-saw puzzle coupled with a daily racing form. If I can piece the puzzle together and the market is in an area that provides solid odds not probability of profit, then I pounce, if not then I wait. And the waiting is just as rewarding as the pouncing! PEACE and good-specul8tion
that article reminded me of nothing so much as the blind men and the elephant. they might as well have been involved in a discussion on the metaphysics of quality, with one half saying the tenets of quality are plain as the nose on your face and the other half demanding that all evidences of quality be precisely dissected and quantified. Niederhoffer is especially amusing. "I'll show you that technical analysis is bunk; see here, I pulled up a definition on Google that was poorly done, and consider all these foolish fellows." Vic has the soul of an accountant and the heart of an actuary, and yet he happily tramples on the most basic principles of statistical sampling. in using well chosen examples to discredit the charlatans of the well chosen example, he beats himself with his own club. as he was an excessive gambler before the meltdown, perhaps he forced himself into this colorless shell in an effort to preserve sanity and prevent further grievous harm, explaining the contradiction of a zealous bean counter who can't count. is it possible to convince a colorblind person that color exists- without first getting them to question their own perspective? how do you give new eyes to a man convinced he has seen all? i am becoming more and more convinced that great traders have to have analytical ability and creativity in like amounts, perhaps equal amounts, and the combination creates a whole more than the sum of its parts. (mechanical traders being likened to architects- creativity built into structural design.) maybe it's like having the potential to be a great sculptor or painter. if you have it, you recognize it on a visceral level and have trouble explaining what the essence of 'it' is. if you don't have it, you recognize that some others do and go on with life- or you get bitter and try to dispute whether 'it' really exists at all.
The very beginning part mentioned a "female trader" and discredited her style based on some sort of testing. I think that missed the whole point of her style which is based on tape reading From what I know, each setup / trade is taken or skipped with final confirmation of the real-time price actions. So the disclosed setup is just the common knowledge part, not the complete picture.