Let's take the following example: accumulation of instrument X starts in the price area Y providing TA trader with the pattern, which shows with average historical probability of 60% and average historical R:R of 1:3 that it really is accumulation of a serious amount, likely to spawn a new trend. Would such an entry, based on past statistics be "too late"?
Being a member of family of at least 5 generations of people devoting their life to science and having Ph. D. myself I can definitely say academics are wrong just as often as ordinary people.
I am not sure I understand the difference. Isn't Price Action a form of TA? Also, I agree it can take 5 - 10 years to learn how to trade correctly. If it was easy, anyone could be profitable.
You mean a price driver like this?... How come your price driver called a short way down below? Isn't hanging in there a bit of intellectual masturbation?
It's important for TA guys to understand how price drivers really effect the market. First of all, forget the fluff that surf preached about magic price drivers that leave TA for dead. I know from first hand experience of mentoring a quant prof. from a top uni that they can tell what is going to happen in the next few micro seconds to the next few full big seconds, but the further out you go the less they know and that's why the prof came to me. All their coding and formulas are about what is happening now and of course that leaves me way behind their wake. We might be 30 seconds behind them but we have one giant advantage - TA. TA gives us a way to quantify the probabilities of a move and determine the probability of a domino effect through time frames so we can ride it out - be that for a few minutes or several hours. Here's an example of TA elephant price drivers on a 3 pip Euro chart with buying volume added to the top of a green candle and selling to the bottom of a red candle for fast reading. This is not the same volume as on the bottom of the chart as this relates to traders past actions. I don't need the microsecond trade, I want to follow the elephants. Knowing that as the tiny 3 pip engulfer forms elephants are exposed accumulating a position lets me jump on the move.The exact same thing applies on all time frames, but you'll not find it at BabyPips. There's a learning curve in TA that is well worth the effort, but if you don't have the tools and pay your dues in developing TA skills, then of course it's all junk - after all it wouldn't do to blame oneself, would it?
The only 3 things I see that move price are fundamentals, classic TA and sentiment. About which of these three are you speaking to? Am I missing something..is there a fourth?
None of those three things move price. TA simply illustrates what price has done. The only thing that moves price is money flows--- sentiment doesn't move price as one pissed off hedge fund manager will outweigh 1000 bullish retail investors. No wonder most traders lose money, even the most simple ideas of how the market really works are rejected for "feel good" ideas like trend etc.
Oily you brighten my day up. I am not quite sure how to respond! Is that what you think TA is - a line of potential S&R? Let me see now - how long would it take to learn that TA... 30 seconds? It must go something like this: here are Pivot Points and PA will reverse at these levels. Bummer, they didn't. Okay that proves TA fails! You have spent what is it, 9 years on EA's? It's wrecked you Oily. Even BabyPips is above this level of understanding and I don't know any level below that. Oh well You actually have reactions and breakouts, but there's really no point in me explaining, is there?