From someone outside the US like me, it's sort of hard to imagine that Romney has some serious chance against Obama, but a Technical Analysis approach suggests that he has. The Abramowitz model applies a method similar to Technical Analysis to the US presidential elections, resulting in the following formula: PV = 46.9 + (.105*NETAPP) + (.635*Q2GDP) + (5.22*TERM1INC) â (2.76*POLARIZATION) while PV is the predicted share of the major party vote for the party of the incumbent president; NETAPP is for the incumbent presidentâs net approval rating (approval â disapproval) in the final Gallup Poll in June; Q2GDP is the annualized growth rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the election year; TERM1INC is for the presence or absence of a first-term incumbent in the race; and POLARIZATION is for favoring highly partisan, irrational election decisions as is the case in the US currently. As the BEA came out last Friday with the Q2GDP (1.5%), we can now calculate the votes for Obama: PV = 46.9 + (.105 * 2.0) + (.635 * 1.5) + 5.22 - 2.76 = 50.52 Thus, the Technical Analysis approach predicts a victory for Obama, but a surprisingly tight one due to the Polarization factor. From what we in Europe see and hear from the candidates, we would rather predict a far more clear Obama victory - but US elections are apparently a little different to elections in the rest of the world. Anyway, in all US presidential elections since WWII, the Abramowitz model correctly predicted the votes within a margin of error close to that of the final pre-election Gallup Poll.