Thank you. Yes it is EW. I do use EW on my long term bias, although I don't base my trades in it. So far it has proved to be good to me. I don't see why so many people are saying EW was dead after 2009 rally, when in fact it helped to get out of shorts near the lows and sto start accumulate stocks and ETF's around 710 points in S&P. The channel is just a normal EW channel which connects wave 2 to Wave 4. From that then you draw a parallel to that channel that goes thru the top of Wave 3. The dashed line is just the mid-line of the channel. The indicator is an indicator of my own, very simple, it takes the derivative of the derivative of price allied with some MA's. If you take a derivative you get velocity, derivative of derivative you get acceleration. So what the indicator states to me, is the peak in strength was in wave 3 of 3 (which is to be expected) and it has been losing strength ever since... the recent divergence to me makes me think this is clearly a 5th wave. Especially after the sideways action we've had from 2008 and most 2009, which to me I evaluate it as a triangle which is always preceding the FINAL move of a trend.
Thanks again for sharing your approach. I need to study Elliot Wave. I have read that the wave identification is somewhat subjective, but maybe I would find it to be objective if I investigated it. Your indicator is very interesting, especially since I do not see any divergence on stochastics or MACD during the same time period on my charts. Unfortunately, I do not know how to program indicators, even though you explained the concept behind yours.
ImPO I see Daily chart in a bull flag, histo keeps rising, expecting at least a re-test of 1220s. Prior to that I see another dip to establish intermediate support within 1070-1050 area, which I anticipate to be jumped at by bulls to take to 1220s or even higher
Elliott Wave is one of the biggest fictions in trading. Everyone has an interpretation. It is one of the many things that intrigues and misleads newbies, hoping for something that works. You would do as well to consult chicken entrails
Yes it can be sometimes very subjective... but what I do is when I don't know what it is I don't try to force a count. I just stay out or have no stand relative to it. Sometimes the count can be messy and hard to count. If that happens I just stop. Sometimes the count is VERY CLEAR. These are the times one should go for. MACD doesn't have divergences? I don't know if it has or not but take in mind this is a Weekly chart... maybe i forgot to mention it. One example of the counts being clear or not, to me, was the US Dollar. Here is a chart I posted back in July for USD Index: I would say I didn't miss the bottom by much. Here are more recent charts and WHY I thought the count in uSD Index couldn't be more clearer: Pattern Actual count:
Who knew that there was a word for this, much less such a wealth of what today we would consider technical analysis on the subject? This brings a whole new perspective to the practice of trading by "gut feel."
gents ... you are in the wrong market this is the new "bling" www.retrographique.com/images\tinsigns\Food\Golden Bonanza Niblets Corn.gif
Would any of the comedic contributors to this thread consider posting a chart with an explanation of their technical analysis of gold?