I look for further strength in the US dollar, Kiwi would be high up on the short list. I look for a further pickup in inflation in the US. That does not necessarily coincide with any events this upcoming week. What are your views?
It's easy enough to pick up some research on China. Read about ghost cities, shadow financing, commodity trading and mislabeling of trade receipts in Qingdao. But you really only understand the dynamics that drive China when you actually engage with people that are impacted by certain policies on social media in China. When you tour the oil fields in Shandong province. When you get a chance to tour the technology parks in Shenzhen or take a factory tour at DJI. When you engage with researchers and learn first hand where on the AI train China currently is and why it poses a serious challenge to American hegemony. When you actual go places and engage you learn things you would never pick up from some Credit Suisse or other research paper. And you can formulate views and trades from such insight and changes/shifts from the status quo as long as you actually understand the underlying current. Does that one single example make it clearer?
I'm an archery enthusiast. I owe my proficiency to the arrow marks at the bowling lane! You nailed it @schweiz, StrudelBoy deserves entry into HoF!
Makes no sense for the way I trade. If you would have a really open mind you would understand that there are a lot of other ways to trade and make decent money, then the way you do it. I am a discretionary daytrader trading on mathematical models and don't read any news, research or advice at all. Less work and better returns. So more time to live a high quality life. I don't need to travel to study which markets are promising and which not. If I travel it is or fun. BTW I was working in a family business after graduating. We did a lot of business with China, Hong Kong, Japan, Philippines... decades ago already, in the '60s. So, long before the world discovered China.
If there ever was any evidence of success by those who purely rely on past prices then it would make this entire market niche a lot more credible. All I said was that I have not heard or come across more than a handful. On the other hand there are plenty of success stories of those who complement their analysis and trade entry rational with economic and fundamental anlysis. Yes, it is more work but apparently a lot more rewarding. Why I unfortunately do not lend much credibility to your claims is because seldomly do successful people see a need to call others idiots. It is usually highly insecure individuals who know full well that their approach is not working and who are afraid that their only needle in the hey stack gets debunked. If TA worked today then we would have proven and audited track records from a lot more traders than we have. After all those track records exist for all those hedge fund and bank traders who base their approach on non price action alone. Something just does not compute and as a logical and rational being that usually raises all sorts of alarm bells for me. We can agree to disagree on this one. I have no problem with that.
Strudel... you are making incorrect/invalid/mere opinion assumptions. >> "If TA worked today then we would have proven and audited track records from a lot more traders than we have." a) Not all traders use TA. Where are the "proven and audited track records" of non-TA "TRADERS"? Why isn't there "a lot more"? Please, do not confuse TRADER with INVESTOR or FUND or INSTITUTIONAL MONEY. You used the word "TRADERS" plural. b) What makes you think "a lot" of TA-based TRADERS have ANY INTEREST OR NEED WHATSOEVER in providing ANY TYPE of evidentiary documentation? If a trader has interest or need to do so, the method(s) the trader uses is not the reason for such interest or need. In fact, the proof you mention, has to do with performance. The method(s) used is/are not required (or necessary) to be disclosed. c) Existence of, or lack of "proven and audited track records" is not a factor, nor is it an argument for or against ANY particular methodology working or not. >> those track records exist for all those hedge fund and bank traders who base their approach on non price action alone. These are not "traders", they are portfolio managers at best, match-maker is common. Please, do not confuse TRADER with INVESTOR or FUND or INSTITUTIONAL MONEY. You used the word "TRADERS" plural. >> Something just does not compute and as a logical and rational being that usually raises all sorts of alarm bells for me. Existence of, or lack of "proven and audited track records" is not a factor, nor is it an argument for or against, ANY particular methodology working or not. Family, creditors, and the US-IRS know the track record. You are alarmed that many (day)traders have no interest in proving anything to you or your hairdresser. Spend some time learning the difference between a (day) trader, an investor, a fund, and institutional money. >> We can agree to disagree on this one. I have no problem with that. Good TRADING to you.
TA works.....but patterns have a very low probability of success. A big bull bar which occurs after a reversal pattern has a very high probability of following through. every move or swing goes through a cycle: a breakout a channel and then a tight range and then a reversal. you can see this in every swing. sellers want higher price which the breakout gives them so they sell.which is what causes the channel which is two sided trading if you need more or any help i am happy to oblige...no obligation no charge