Good effort but I would suggest that the comparison of randomly generated numbers is not representative of market action. There is a big difference in trying to predict future human behavior than trying to make sense of purely randomly generated numbers. TA
Assuming we are talking about day trading, very short term - yes.Numerous things that you can define statistically have predictive value.Plenty of those things outthere.
If people start already from the wrong assumptions, the result can never be useful. And the result of their wrong assumptions, can for them, proof that they are right. PS:4 postings since 2002???? Did somebody wake you up from your wintersleep?
Which I agree with. But in this particular case semantics are important. What I vehemently disagree with is ANY pretense to any person having a “predictive” capability in the markets. That is too definitive of a statement. Even Warren Buffet had plenty of stinkers. Profitable traders are good at taking calculated risk - but they have no literal “predictive” capability. Again, by definition “predictive” literally means to prophesy or foretell the future. And no successful trader (over a protracted period of time) worth his or her salt would ever make such a statement. Being successful at taking on calculated risk is a different animal than possessing “predictive” powers.
totally agree if there were such a person who is 100% right every time, soon no one will take the other side of the transaction. if there was only one outcome that is possible then what can the other side bet on, the person who has to pay the winner
CFTC Regulations 4.24(n) and 4.25: The following statement prominently displayed: “PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.” And there’s a lot more Legal requirements to the risk disclosure requirements than I’ve stated above - but you are clearly not allowed to Outright claim, imply or even hint at literal “predictive” abilities as a CPO or CTA. It’s illegal.
Haha! I quit posting my trades and thoughts a long time ago simply because I got tired of the "T/A is crap" replies on a lot of boards. I pretty much just keep to myself but every once in a while a post or two sneaks out somewhere. TA
I find the TA is total rubbish threads some of the best fun, and great value considering all of it is started by some of the most ignorant traders (if traders is what they are......).
%% That may be another reason i sometimes do alien[ foreign]stocks LOL; but they're ADR, so i proved your SEC point again.But one millionaire laughed + ''past performance, is no guarantee of future results; but it is a whole lot better than nothing'' LOL Actually that is an advantage, knowing cant predict markets; blowing up an account trying to predict it did not happen the second 10 years.LOL I was never foolish enough to think the SEC or market makers were my enemy LOL