Technical Analysis During Volatility

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by TrendSpider_Jake, Dec 14, 2018.

  1. panzerman

    panzerman

    Me either, just taking a light hearted spin on the opening posts lament of why their method suddenly stopped working. Then Gaussian gets bent out of shape at the meer hint of EMH and random walk.

    Guess what, that is still the best explanation in a broad and general sense of how prices evolve. The best evidence is the number of people over the centuries who have tried to be successful at trading and failed. I'm not sure if 90% would be correct, but it is certainly the majority of traders. The root cause is that their methods can't adequately deal with the highly random movement of prices. I suspect the same is true for Gaussian's trading account.

    Yes I know prices are not perfectly random. All financial distributions have some amount of skew and kurtosis. Just look at the dozens of different GARCH models available in an attempt to account for the limitations of traditional random walk.

    For those who are truly profitable at this trading game, good on you. You are in an elite minority. For the record, I'm not, only breakeven.
     
    #21     Dec 15, 2018
    qlai likes this.